[opendtv] Re: 20051120 Schubin's Sunday Stuff (Mark's Monday Memo)
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Tue, 22 Nov 2005 21:50:07 -0500
At 11:00 AM -0500 11/22/05, Manfredi, Albert E wrote:
>
>My conclusion is that people are not interested in the boring
>old big analog CRT sets, or fuzzy RPTVs, but at the same time,
>they aren't seeing the prices of the new "digital" sets low
>enough yet to replace their big old analog TVs that cost only
>$200. Case in pooint, the 26" set I bought last year, for over
>$1200, still costs $900 this year. Hardly cheap enough to be seen
>as a replacement for an analog set that would cost less than
>$200 today.
>
You make a compelling case Bert...
;-)
I think you are spot on about people not being interested in big
screens with SD/NTSC resolution.
Twenty percent of U.S. homes had displays 32" or larger - what the
CEA classifies as a "home theater display" - BEFORE the DTV
transition started. Most of these sets were either huge direct view
CRTs or CRT-based RPTVs, and the picture quality sucked. You had to
spend upwards of $10,000-20,000 in the early '90s to put together a
high quality big screen home theater. A good line doubler could cost
$15,000 alone.
Most of the big screens that were purchased before 1995 are now
collecting dust in the back of aa TV repair store.Most of the people
who owned these sets were primed to buy an HDTV capable home theater
system. I think the latest stats show that about 30% of U.S. homes
now have a home theater system; of these, I believe about half are
HDTV capable.
So what I think Joel and Mark were trying to point out is that much
of the potential market for big screen HDTVs has already been served,
and that sales are beginning to show signs of slowing, now that the
initial demand has been satisfied. To make matters worse, we are now
getting into the replacement cycle for this market niche; I have no
idea what the percentages are, but a significant portion of the sales
of Big Screen displays are second time buyers like myself.
And I think you are right about the price of the replacements for
those cheap legacy NTSC receivers still being too high for the
masses. But there are some signs of encouragement. For example, you
spent $1,200 last year on an LCD display no larger than the CRT sets
you could have bought most anywhere for $300.
LCD Panel displays have great consumer appeal. I credit this to
several factors:
The form factor - they take up far less space than a CRT with similar
screen diagonal.
The PC factor - people have become accustomed to the sharpness of
their computer displays - LCD panels now dominate the market for PC
displays.
The Convergence Factor - people have become accustomed to watching
video (mostly DVDs) on their computer displays, and now think of the
computer display as being MORE CAPABLE than an ordinary TV display.
The notion that one screen can be used for both computing and
entertainment applications is beginning to gain momentum - which
helps the consumer justify the higher cost relative to a TV.
Perhaps the real problem is this whole notion of "replacement." The
Broadcast DTV transition has been promoted as another upgrade, like
the transition from B&W to color. The underlying business model is
not changing.
But the world has changed; What if most consumers are looking for
something more than a simple replacement? Something more useful than
another dumb TV.
Regards
Craig
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