The Next Oregon Bird: 2017
The votes are in and, if we’re lucky, the birds will read OBOL and show up
pretty soon. We received votes from 31 people. A remarkable 59 species
received at least one vote. 17 species received at least one first-place vote.
The first and second choice were quite clear: Black Vulture received 68 total
points and 10 first-place votes from 17 observers. It was also the only
species that received a vote from more than half of the voters. Black-tailed
Gull was a distant but clear second (and much more likely in winter). These
were also the top two predictions in 2011; so far they have been beaten out by
thirteen new species.
After that a number of species were clustered. Neotropic Cormorant, Nelson’s
Sparrow, Siberian Accentor, Dusky Warbler and Winter Wren were in the highest
cluster, followed closely by a loose cluster including a number of species.
Below this group only Gray-tailed Tattler got more than one first-place vote.
I think Dusky Warbler is over-ranked because it has not yet occurred in the
lower 48 north of Marin County, California. It seems to be mainly a southern
California vagrant. Black Vulture has the virtue of being large, visible and
easy to identify, but how likely is it? Given that it is almost December,
Neotropic is probably not likely for several months. Check the Narrows at
Malheur in May.
There are some dark horses that may be underranked. Among those that got at
least one vote and are probably underranked include Brown Shrike, Eurasian
Kestrel, Northern Hobby, Woodhouse’s Scrub-Jay, Dusky Thrush and Purple
Sandpiper. All of these birds, though very unusual, have a reasonably clear
pattern of vagrancy close to Oregon and all of them with the possible exception
of Purple Sandpiper are most likely in winter. The jay has probably already
occurred but there is no OBRC accepted record.
Hendrik Herlyn and Noah Strycker had all five of their choices in the top 10.
But they don’t get to gloat unless they are right. Oh, and they only agreed on
ONE of the top ten.
What should you do with this information? It is good study fodder. Remind
yourself what these birds look and sound like so when you find the first Oregon
record you can say “a-ha!” instead of “OMG what is this bird?”
2017
Next Oregon bird
first-place votes: (2). bold = at least one 5
# = number of voters choosing the species
#
T
Species
17
68
Black Vulture (10)
7
27
Black-tailed Gull (2)
6
22
Neotropic Cormorant (1)
7
21
Siberian Accentor
6
21
Nelson's Sparrow (2)
8
20
Dusky Warbler (1)
6
18
Winter Wren (2)
4
15
Yellow-green Vireo
6
15
Field Sparrow
6
13
Great BB Gull
4
12
Zone-tailed Hawk (1)
4
12
Mississippi Kite (1)
4
11
Brown Shrike (1)
2
10
Gray-tailed Tattler (2)
3
9
Fieldfare (1)
3
9
Cerulean Warbler
3
9
Crested Auklet
2
8
Kittlitz's Murrelet (1)
2
7
Inca Dove (1)
2
7
Waved Albatross
2
7
Little Curlew (1)
2
6
Craveri's Murrelet (1)
1
5
Great-winged Petrel (1)
2
5
Connecticut Warbler
2
5
Yellow-bellied Fly
1
5
Ivory Gull (1)
3
5
Common Pochard
2
5
Bluethroat
1
4
Bulwer's Petrel
1
4
Rufous-crowned Sp
1
4
E Spot-billed Duck
1
4
Arctic Warbler
1
4
Brown-crested Fly
1
4
Rivoli's Hummer
1
4
Woodhouse's Scrub-Jay
1
3
Thick-billed Kingbird
1
3
Temminck's Stint
1
3
Mexican Violetear
2
3
Royal Tern
1
3
Hepatic Tanager
1
3
Xantus's Hummingbird
2
3
Boreal Chickadee
1
2
Least Auklet
1
2
Greater Pewee
2
2
Redwing
1
2
Northern Hobby
1
2
Common Greenshank
1
2
Purple Sandpiper
2
2
Red-footed Booby
1
2
Gull-billed Tern
1
2
Eurasian Kestrel
1
1
Dusky Thrush
1
1
Bendire's Thrasher
1
1
Rufous-backed Robin
1
1
Golden-cr Warbler
1
1
Black Guillemot
1
1
Grace's Warbler
1
1
Sandwich Tern
1
1
Am. Oystercatcher
0
0
Aleutian Tern
0
0
Am Purple Gallinule
0
0
Baird's Sparrow
0
0
BB Cuckoo
0
0
Cave Swallow
0
0
Common Rosefinch.
0
0
Far Eastern Curlew
0
0
Gray Wagtail
0
0
Least Storm-Petrel
0
0
Lesser Frigatebird
0
0
Oriental Greenfinch
0
0
Parkinson's Petrel
0
0
Red-faced Warbler
0
0
Red-tailed Tropicbird
0
0
Reddish Egret
0
0
Sulphur-b Flycatcher
0
0
Terek Sandpiper
0
0
White-chinned Petrel
0
0
White-winged Tern
0
0
Wood Stork
0
0
Yellow-billed Magpie
Alan Contreras
acontrer56@xxxxxxxxx
Eugene, Oregon
www.alanlcontreras.com
