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ENVIRONMENT: GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE :
ENVIRONMENT: GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE: CLIMATE CHANGE DENIAL :
ENVIRONMENT: GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE: CLIMATE CHANGE DECEIT :
POLITICS: POLITICAL PARTIES: REPUBLICAN PARTY, TEA PARTY :
INDUSTRIES: PETROLEUM :
LIBERTARIANISM :
RACISM :
BIGOTRY :
EXTREMISM :
HATE GROUPS :
INTOLERANCE :
DONALD TRUMP :
BLATANT FALSEHOODS :
SERIAL LIARS :
REPUBLICAN WAR ON WOMEN :
RAPE CULTURE :
SEXISM:
Prediction of Climate Change Impacts Not as "Limited"
as Tillerson Suggests
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Prediction of Climate Change Impacts Not as "Limited"
as Tillerson Suggests
Trumps nominee for Secretary of State falls back on subjective language
to skirt science
By Vanessa Schipani
January 13, 2017
Scientific American
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/prediction-
of-climate-change-impacts-not-as-limited-as-tillerson-suggests/
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A shorter URL for the above link:
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http://tinyurl.com/glof9jv
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During his confirmation hearing for secretary of state, Rex Tillerson said
our ability to predict the effect of increased greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere is very limited. Thats not entirely
accurate.
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While very limited is subjective, scientists have differing degrees of
confidence when attributing different phenomena to increased atmospheric
carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
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For example, scientists are nearly certain that increased CO2 levels from
the burning of fossil fuels have caused over half of the global
temperature increase since 1950. Theyre also relatively certain that
global warming will lead to a rise in extreme heat waves and sea levels.
But they are less certain when linking global warming to increased
incidences of wildfires.
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Tillerson, the recently retired chairman and chief executive officer of
ExxonMobil, is President-elect Donald Trumps choice for secretary of
state. While testifying before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on
Jan. 11, Tillerson acknowledged that climate change is real, saying that
the risk of climate change does exist, and that the consequences of it
could be serious enough that action should be taken.
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But he added that, The type of action seems to be where the largest areas
of debate exist in the public discourse. He then went on to question
scientists ability to predict the effects of increased greenhouse gas
levels.
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Scientists ability to make predictions based on a particular theory
corresponds to the number of times theyve verified that theory using
different lines of evidence: The more verification, the more likely it is
that their predictions will turn out to be accurate.
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To start, scientists have verified the theory of the greenhouse effect,
which says that gases like CO2 trap the suns heat, time and again since
the physicist Joseph Fourier first proposed it in 1824.
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In fact, Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Penn State told us last
February that things as basic as the design of heat-seeking missiles rely
upon an understanding of the greenhouse effect.
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In short, scientists are nearly certain that increased CO2 levels from the
burning of fossil fuels will lead to a warmer earth. This is no longer a
matter of prediction.
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As we have written before, the U.N.s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Changes fifth assessment report that was released in 2013 concluded that
it is extremely likely that more than half of the observed temperature
increase since 1950 is due to human activities.
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Scientists also have high confidence that global warming will lead to
changes in the climate, including a rise in extreme weather events and sea
levels. This is also no longer a matter of prediction.
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Take sea level rise: Hundreds of scientists who collaborated on the U.S.
Global Change Research Programs 2016 report have very high confidence that
global sea level has risen during the past century, estimating about eight
inches since 1880. Their evidence comes from 130 years of tide gauge
records and 20 years of satellite observations.
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The authors also have medium confidence that global sea level rise will be
in the range of 1 to 4 feet by 2100.
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The complete article may be read at the URL above.
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Sincerely,
David Dillard
Temple University
(215) 204 - 4584
jwne@xxxxxxxxxx
http://workface.com/e/daviddillard
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