[lit-ideas] Re: Steyn vs Simon
- From: "John McCreery" <john.mccreery@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Sun, 11 Mar 2007 11:52:50 +0900
On 3/11/07, Lawrence Helm <lawrencehelm@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Okay, back to Mark Steyn. Let me comment upon Simon's criticism.
I agree with Lawrence that too much of our debate here is ad hominem.
I also take on board Simon's observation that relevant census data are
readily available via the Net. So I base my own evaluation of Steyn's
claim that higher birthrates in Red States suggest an inevitable
conservative dominance of U.S. politics on facts that I here offer for
your consideration.
Virginia had been in recent decades a reliably red state in
Presidential elections. Virginia now has its second Democratic
Governor in a row and a Democratic Senator. Continuing population
growth in the Northern Virginia counties adjacent to Washington, D.C.,
combined with recent voting patterns, strongly suggests that Virginia
is now purple and trending bluer all the time.
I recall that not too long ago Lawrence's own state, California,
became the first state in the nation in which white folks are now
officially a minority. A quick check on the official California census
cite produces the following projections for 2050 (based on 2003 data).
California 2000 34043198 16047989 11082985 3746292
111200 2222816 192753 639163 47% 33% 11% 0% 7% 1%
2%
California 2001 34729740 16029331 11557941 3860687
116337 2275847 217004 672593 46% 33% 11% 0% 7% 1%
2%
California 2002 35338807 16022040 12002966 3921746
119404 2329674 236509 706468 45% 34% 11% 0% 7% 1%
2%
California 2003 35934967 16096065 12425543 3920390
121863 2397288 256454 717364 45% 35% 11% 0% 7% 1%
2%
California 2004 36376411 15967775 12816038 4037013
126224 2425066 276851 727444 44% 35% 11% 0% 7% 1%
2%
California 2005 36854224 15852937 13220223 4158349
130647 2456783 296990 738295 43% 36% 11% 0% 7% 1%
2%
California 2006 37334968 15766736 13603759 4271808
134781 2491247 317087 749550 42% 36% 11% 0% 7% 1%
2%
California 2007 37810180 15674055 13991096 4382839
138920 2525307 337201 760762 41% 37% 12% 0% 7% 1%
2%
California 2008 38288706 15579074 14383509 4493757
143063 2559759 357419 772125 41% 38% 12% 0% 7% 1%
2%
California 2009 38767771 15480338 14780522 4604056
147210 2594349 377710 783586 40% 38% 12% 0% 7% 1%
2%
California 2010 39246767 15377948 15181594 4713693
151365 2628971 398048 795148 39% 39% 12% 0% 7% 1%
2%
California 2011 39713876 15327985 15540167 4803686
154810 2660733 419622 806873 39% 39% 12% 0% 7% 1%
2%
California 2012 40179410 15274688 15901881 4892217
158220 2692494 441277 818633 38% 40% 12% 0% 7% 1%
2%
California 2013 40644545 15218833 16266639 4979819
161624 2724188 462975 830467 37% 40% 12% 0% 7% 1%
2%
California 2014 41108724 15160400 16634057 5066439
164999 2755724 484742 842363 37% 40% 12% 0% 7% 1%
2%
California 2015 41570908 15099107 17003607 5152011
168340 2786949 506526 854368 36% 41% 12% 0% 7% 1%
2%
California 2016 42031550 15035282 17375312 5236670
171656 2817767 528319 866544 36% 41% 12% 0% 7% 1%
2%
California 2017 42490240 14969100 17748723 5320380
174930 2848086 550086 878935 35% 42% 13% 0% 7% 1%
2%
California 2018 42946857 14900800 18123681 5403199
178154 2877928 571865 891230 35% 42% 13% 0% 7% 1%
2%
California 2019 43401132 14830255 18500175 5485008
181334 2907266 593661 903433 34% 43% 13% 0% 7% 1%
2%
California 2020 43851741 14757146 18877590 5565651
184457 2935929 615393 915575 34% 43% 13% 0% 7% 1%
2%
California 2021 44298593 14714599 19236081 5632384
187330 2964452 635828 927919 33% 43% 13% 0% 7% 1%
2%
California 2022 44740790 14669029 19595401 5697486
190121 2992170 656136 940447 33% 44% 13% 0% 7% 1%
2%
California 2023 45178599 14620495 19955889 5760970
192869 3019271 676387 952718 32% 44% 13% 0% 7% 1%
2%
California 2024 45612079 14568835 20317878 5822788
195559 3045771 696559 964689 32% 45% 13% 0% 7% 2%
2%
California 2025 46040785 14513774 20681235 5882936
198179 3071658 716607 976396 32% 45% 13% 0% 7% 2%
2%
California 2026 46464936 14455123 21046058 5941553
200723 3097026 736536 987917 31% 45% 13% 0% 7% 2%
2%
California 2027 46884231 14392713 21412415 5998511
203223 3121813 756342 999214 31% 46% 13% 0% 7% 2%
2%
California 2028 47298536 14326553 21780337 6053783
205665 3146027 776021 1010150 30% 46% 13% 0% 7% 2%
2%
California 2029 47707476 14256394 22149812 6107270
208068 3169644 795585 1020703 30% 46% 13% 0% 7% 2%
2%
California 2030 48110671 14182100 22520629 6158956
210409 3192662 815054 1030861 29% 47% 13% 0% 7% 2%
2%
California 2031 48474513 14117327 22862654 6197592
212233 3211719 832473 1040515 29% 47% 13% 0% 7% 2%
2%
California 2032 48832341 14049232 23204988 6234349
214003 3230341 849769 1049659 29% 48% 13% 0% 7% 2%
2%
California 2033 49184849 13978309 23547714 6269269
215705 3248483 866916 1058453 28% 48% 13% 0% 7% 2%
2%
California 2034 49532490 13904956 23890948 6302341
217362 3266116 883865 1066902 28% 48% 13% 0% 7% 2%
2%
California 2035 49875306 13829347 24234590 6333570
218951 3283292 900658 1074898 28% 49% 13% 0% 7% 2%
2%
California 2036 50213665 13751922 24578598 6363026
220502 3300034 917304 1082279 27% 49% 13% 0% 7% 2%
2%
California 2037 50548379 13673252 24923048 6390805
221986 3316362 933757 1089169 27% 49% 13% 0% 7% 2%
2%
California 2038 50880471 13594070 25267961 6416930
223440 3332283 950054 1095733 27% 50% 13% 0% 7% 2%
2%
California 2039 51210412 13514658 25613426 6441473
224851 3347875 966158 1101971 26% 50% 13% 0% 7% 2%
2%
California 2040 51538596 13435378 25959527 6464398
226228 3363142 982073 1107850 26% 50% 13% 0% 7% 2%
2%
California 2041 51865770 13363467 26299874 6485745
227549 3378100 997821 1113214 26% 51% 13% 0% 7% 2%
2%
California 2042 52191466 13292098 26640690 6505633
228840 3392828 1013371 1118006 25% 51% 12% 0% 7% 2%
2%
California 2043 52515609 13220917 26981898 6524098
230066 3407264 1028724 1122642 25% 51% 12% 0% 6% 2%
2%
California 2044 52838669 13150371 27323456 6541203
231246 3421394 1043857 1127142 25% 52% 12% 0% 6% 2%
2%
California 2045 53161191 13080766 27665600 6557011
232356 3435215 1058818 1131425 25% 52% 12% 0% 6% 2%
2%
California 2046 53483427 13012347 28008277 6571544
233421 3448797 1073575 1135466 24% 52% 12% 0% 6% 2%
2%
California 2047 53805635 12945337 28351627 6584831
234465 3462110 1088166 1139099 24% 53% 12% 0% 6% 2%
2%
California 2048 54128381 12880020 28695724 6596924
235423 3475137 1102530 1142623 24% 53% 12% 0% 6% 2%
2%
California 2049 54452323 12816638 29040770 6607924
236336 3487885 1116707 1146063 24% 53% 12% 0% 6% 2%
2%
California 2050 54777700 12755395 29386940 6617904
237190 3500358 1130654 1149259 23% 54% 12% 0% 6% 2%
2%
The numbers read left to right are Year, Total, White, Hispanic,
Asian, Pacific Islander, Black, American Indian, Multirace and
White(%), Hispanic(%), Asian(%), Pacific Islander(%), Black(%),
American Indian(%), Multirace(%). Thus, if these figures turn out to
be accurate projections, in 2050, white folks will be only 23% of a
population in which Hispanics, at 54%, will have a clear majority. The
tipping point is in 2010-2011, years in which whites and Hispanics
will be equal in numbers, each 39% of the population.
Is it any accident that the governor of California, one Arnold
Schwarzenneger, has signed an anti-Global Warming pact with governors
of four other Western States and state laws imposing the strictest
auto emissions controls in the nation? If you believe that, I have a
bridge to sell you.
Returning, however, to Steyn's argument. It nicely embodies one of the
problems that Andrew Abbott analyzes in _Time Matters_. the assumption
that the qualities of entities analyzed remain constant while
demographic changes alter their composition. Steyn's argument assumes
that people who move to red states move in search of more wholesome
values and that children raised by conservative parents stay that way
or, in short, that the red states will always be red. The possibility
that people moving to red states are moving in search of economic
opportunity and taking their nasty blue state values with them and the
possibility of kids raised by conservative parents rebelling in a
classic Oedipal rebellion, producing a generation gap, are left out of
Steyn's equations. In today's world that weakens his model
considerably.
Cheers,
John
John McCreery
The Word Works, Ltd., Yokohama, JAPAN
Tel. +81-45-314-9324
http://www.wordworks.jp/
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