[lit-ideas] Re: Salt Grains
- From: "Lawrence Helm" <lawrencehelm@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: <lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Fri, 17 Feb 2006 21:54:35 -0800
"Scenario planning using soft systems methodology" sounds like one of the
new and improved management systems McDonnell Douglas and Boeing paid good
money to send us through every year or so. I was sent to all of them and am
very glad not to have to attend any more.
As to the matter being more complicated than I describe, well sure. I only
wrote a couple of notes. I didn't try to be comprehensive. I just read
Tehran Rising, Iran's Challenge to the United States by Ilan Berman. I am
presently finishing Islamic Fundamentalism, the New Global Threat by
Mohammad Mohaddessin. The latter is the current spokesman for the
Mohjahedin, which was the organization that got more votes than Khomeini's,
forcing Khomeini to declare it illegal and engage in a great number of
executions. You can do a search on Mohaddessin's name and find him holding
forth on the current situation in Iran. If there is a regime change, he
might get back into the picture. The Mohjahedin are probably fondly
recalled by those who chafe under the Khomeini tradition. He still hopes we
can manage things without bombing his country.
I'm not sure the fellow you quote has read the Iraqi constitution or he
wouldn't have written, "Ahmadinejad and the second-generation
revolutionaries who stand behind him are likely to change the Islamic
Republic beyond recognition in the years ahead." Mohaddessin describes how
Khomeini fired his heir apparent right before he died so there would be no
one willing to change anything. To change things as Mahen Abedin suggests
would require a revision to the Iranian constitution; something Mohaddessin
doesn't feel can be done without a regime change, and it doesn't sound like
that's what Abedin has in mind.
Also, I don't think anyone in Iran is worried about Al Quaeda. The
leadership agrees with and supports Al Quaeda. Iran is the biggest sponsor
of terrorist organizations today.
Also, Ahmadinejad had better not be counting on Iran's "undeterrable
nature." He is old enough to know that Iran lost a war to Iraq. They were
very much deterred by them in 1988. Khomeini believed that Allah would
bless those who followed his Islamic Fundamentalist formula - not someone
with faith in Iran's undeterrable nature. Khomeini's loyalty, by the way,
was to the Muslim world as a whole and not just to Iran.
Lawrence
-----Original Message-----
From: lit-ideas-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:lit-ideas-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
On Behalf Of John McCreery
Sent: Friday, February 17, 2006 9:20 PM
To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [lit-ideas] Re: Salt Grains
Lawrence,
1. Scenario planning using soft systems methodology is NOT decision
making by committee. It's a process developed in response to both the
usual ineptness of committees formed on an ad hoc basis and to the
blinkers imposed when only one perspective is permitted in
decision-making. The aim is to ensure that relevant factors are not
omitted when assessing situations, e.g., L. Paul Bremer, "We didn't
expect the insurgency."
2. The situation in Iran is rather more complicated than the one you
describe. See, for example,
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HB18Ak02.html
Cheers,
John
--
John McCreery
The Word Works, Ltd.
55-13-202 Miyagaya, Nishi-ku
Yokohama 220-0006, JAPAN
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