[lit-ideas] Only the US hawks can save the Iranian president now
- From: Omar Kusturica <omarkusto@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: polidea@xxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Mon, 29 Jan 2007 18:21:21 -0800 (PST)
Only the US hawks can save the Iranian president now
Ahmadinejad is failing to deliver for the poor and
losing support, but he could yet survive because of
the international threat
Ali Ansari
Tuesday January 30, 2007
The Guardian
The honeymoon is over. Iran's controversial president,
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has finally come unstuck. His
popularity with the Iranian electorate - the subject
of much incredulous analysis in 2005 - seems to be
falling back at last, and the country's latest
exercise in populism seems to be reaping the rewards
of unfulfilled promises bestowed with little attention
to economic realities.
Those realities have sharpened with the onset of UN
sanctions. Ahmadinejad's casual dismissal of the
sanctions has apparently earned him an unprecedented
rebuke from the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei -
reflecting growing concerns among the political elite,
including many conservatives, who are increasingly
anxious at Iran's worsening international situation.
As if to emphasise this point, Hashemi Rafsanjani,
Ahmadinejad's defeated foe in the 2005 presidential
election, echoed the condemnation of the president's
public complacency, stressing that the threats against
Iran were very real. Indeed, as a second US carrier
group heads for the Gulf, there is belated questioning
of the president's competence. His critics argue that
not only does he appear to have courted the anger of
the US, but his economic mismanagement and political
nepotism have weakened the internal integrity of the
Islamic republic - and proved to be a gift to Iran's
enemies.
Ahmadinejad was elected on a platform of
anti-corruption and financial transparency, and few
appreciated how rapidly he was intoxicated with the
prerogatives of his office. He very soon forgot the
real help he had received in ensuring his election,
basking in the belief that God and the people had put
him in power. Ahmadinejad soon had a view for all
seasons: uranium enrichment. Of course Iran would
pursue this, and what's more, sell it on the open
market at knockdown rates. As for interest rates, they
were far too high for the ordinary borrower, so cut
them immediately. And then there was the Holocaust.
None of this might matter so much, if the president
had based his rhetorical flourishes on solid policies.
But much to everyone's surprise nothing dramatic
materialised. Ahmadinejad appeared to follow the
dictum of his mentor, Ayatollah Khomeini - "Economics
is for donkeys". Indeed, his policies could be defined
as "anything but Khatami" (his predecessor). So the
oil reserve fund was spent on cash handouts to the
grateful poor, and the central bank, normally a
bastion of prudence, was instructed to cut interest
rates for small businesses.
These had the effect, as Ahmadinejad was warned, of
pushing up inflation. The rationale for high interest
rates was to encourage the middle classes to keep
their money in Iran. Now they decided to spend it.
Richer Iranians, worried about rising international
tension, decided it would be prudent to ship their
money abroad. This further weakened the rial, and
added to inflationary pressure. In the past few months
the prices of most basic goods have risen, hurting the
poor he was elected to help. Moreover, far from
investing Iran's oil wealth in infrastructure to
create jobs, he announced recently that Iran's economy
could support a substantially larger population, as if
current unemployment was not a big enough problem.
Views such as these, along with his well publicised
unorthodox religious convictions, have earned him the
ridicule of political foes. What is more striking
perhaps is the growing concern of those who should be
considered his allies, especially in the parliament.
These are people who supported him and expected
results. They expected their populist protege to
overturn the heresy of reform.
Much to their irritation, not only has Ahmadinejad
singularly failed to consolidate and extend his
political base, the recent municipal elections saw his
faction defeated throughout the country. Traditional
conservatives and reformists reorganised and hit back,
ingeniously using technology to work round the various
obstacles placed in front of them. Now, over the past
weeks, with biting weather, shortages of heating fuel
are further raising the political temperature, while
his political opponents point to the burgeoning
international crisis for which the globetrotting
president seems to have no constructive answer. Talk
has turned to impeachment.
Ironically, it is this very international crisis that
may serve to save Ahmadinejad's presidency, a reality
that the president undoubtedly understood all too
well. As domestic difficulties mount, the emerging
international crisis could at best serve as a rallying
point, or at worst persuade Iran's elite that a change
of guard would convey weakness to the outside world.
There can be little doubt that US hawks will interpret
recent events as proof that pressure works, and that
any more pressure will encourage the hawks further.
Yet the reality is that while Ahmadinejad has been his
own worst enemy, the US hawks are his best friends.
Ahmadinejad's demise, if it comes, will have less to
do with the international environment and more with
his own political incompetence. There is little doubt
that it will take more than a cosmetic change to get
Washington to listen to Iran. But the real question
mark, as the Baker-Hamilton commission found to its
cost, is whether Washington is inclined to listen at
all.
· Ali Ansari is director of the Iranian Institute at
the University of St Andrews.
aa51@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
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