[lit-ideas] Re: On Trump and Brexit
- From: "Donal McEvoy" <dmarc-noreply@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> (Redacted sender "donalmcevoyuk" for DMARC)
- To: "lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sat, 11 Mar 2017 00:21:44 +0000 (UTC)
"Do they behave good or do they behave right?’”>
Okay, but which is which (which is equivalent to well-mannered and which to
considerate) [I genuinely am unsure]? In any case, it's the underlying attitude
revealed that is important - some might think good/right and
well-mannered/considerate are synonymous, but clearly the question assumes they
are not or that the responder will mark a difference; and that their preference
then says something about their attitude to authority, and that feeds into
their political outlook.
Among the main points in the article is that it's a myth that the Trump/Brexit
outcomes resulted because of people feeling 'left behind' or marginalised
economically. Is this so? It may complex to fully assess this 'feeling' and its
role in voting: but the argument in the article is that such feelings appear
statitistically insignificant in polling compared to other factors, so we are
given food for thought that the 'left behind' explanation is a kind of
convenient myth. In the case of Brexit it may be that significant numbers think
there has simply been way too much immigration and leaving the EU became a
lightning-rod for these concerns (even if it is not wholly rational given the
non-EU immigration left untackled by successive UK governments). Some now claim
the turning point in the Brexit debate were the 'non-de-escalating' immigration
figures released in the run-up to the vote: if so, a government that allowed
these figures to happen might be thought reckless/complacent about the Brexit
outcome.
Trump lost the popular vote but, even so, the extent of his support requires
explanation.
It is the surprise element of these results that has provoked deeper than
usual searches for explanation, and rightly so: the suspicion is that the
'model' used to predict voter behaviour is flawed, otherwise why the surprise?
I know everybody knows all this (apart from which is which).
DL
From: david ritchie <profdritchie@xxxxxxxxx>
To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, 10 March 2017, 18:06
Subject: [lit-ideas] Re: On Trump and Brexit
On Mar 10, 2017, at 1:42 AM, Donal McEvoy (Redacted sender "donalmcevoyuk" for
DMARC) <dmarc-noreply@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
This may of some interest (and might start a further discussion): before
reading perhaps ask yourself "Is it more important that your children are
considerate or that they are well-mannered?" It does at least try to present a
statistically based argument for which it should be commended.
With apologies to Detective Inspector Grim...What kind of hoity toity,
pointy-wointy, namby pamby, lingy-wistic, theory weary, hubbab-bubbah is this?
A number of Americans sufficient to make these graphs meaningful answered a
question phrased, “Is it important that your children are considerate or
well-mannered?”
Not likely.
"Do they behave good or do they behave right?’”
David Ritchie,Astride the Pond
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