[lit-ideas] Iran, Iraq, Israel....it's coming to a head fast, looks like

From: JimKandJulieB@xxxxxxx
To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Date: Sat, 8 Apr 2006 13:23:20 EDT

No matter how certain you are that a scenario/event will take place, when it
actually seems immanent it still surprises. The second article below is
critical to the first ......my Mom opined that NY and Washington would be
first
if Bush's nuke-happy desire is played out; I begged to differ. Israel will
be hit first.
Julie Krueger
<<Sathttp://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060408/ts_a
fp/usirannuclearmilitary;_ylt=A86.I0967DdE3QIB6w8DW7oF;_ylu=X3oDMTBhZDhxNDFzBHNlYwNtZW5ld3M-
Apr 8, 2:19 AM
ET

WASHINGTON (AFP) - The administration of
_President George W. Bush_
(http://search.news.yahoo.com/search/news/?p=President+George+W.+Bush) is
planning a massive bombing campaign against
_Iran_ (http://search.news.yahoo.com/search/news/?p=Iran)
, including use of bunker-buster nuclear bombs to destroy a key Iranian
suspected nuclear weapons facility, The New Yorker magazine has reported in
its
April 17 issue.

The article by investigative journalist Seymour Hersh said that Bush and
others in the White House have come to view Iranian President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad as a potential Adolf Hitler.
"That's the name they're using," the report quoted a former senior
intelligence official as saying.
A senior unnamed _Pentagon_
(http://search.news.yahoo.com/search/news/?p=Pentagon) adviser is quoted in
the article as saying that "this White House
believes that the only way to solve the problem is to change the power
structure
in Iran, and that means war."
The former intelligence officials depicts planning as "enormous," "hectic"
and "operational," Hersh writes.
One former defense official said the military planning was premised on a
belief that "a sustained bombing campaign in Iran will humiliate the religious
leadership and lead the public to rise up and overthrow the government," The
New Yorker pointed out.
In recent weeks, the president has quietly initiated a series of talks on
plans for Iran with a few key senators and members of the House of
Representatives, including at least one Democrat, the report said.
One of the options under consideration involves the possible use of a
bunker-buster tactical nuclear weapon, such as the B61-11, to insure the
destruction of Iran's main centrifuge plant at Natanz, Hersh writes.
But the former senior intelligence official said the attention given to the
nuclear option has created serious misgivings inside the military, and some
officers have talked about resigning after an attempt to remove the nuclear
option from the evolving war plans in Iran failed, according to the report.
"There are very strong sentiments within the military against brandishing
nuclear weapons against other countries," the magazine quotes the Pentagon
adviser as saying.
The adviser warned that bombing Iran could provoke "a chain reaction" of
attacks on American facilities and citizens throughout the world and might also

reignite Hezbollah.
"If we go, the southern half of _Iraq_
(http://search.news.yahoo.com/search/news/?p=Iraq) will light up like a
candle," the adviser is quoted as telling
The New Yorker.>>
_http://www.forbes.com/business/businesstech/feeds/ap/2006/04/05/ap2649634.htm
l_
(http://www.forbes.com/business/businesstech/feeds/ap/2006/04/05/ap2649634.html)

<<Update 2: Iran Test-Fires 'Top Secret' Missile
By ALI AKBAR DAREINI , 04.05.2006, 01:05 PM
Iran said Wednesday it has successfully test-fired a "top secret" missile,
the third in a week, state-run television reported.

The report called the missile an "ultra-horizon" weapon and said it could be
fired from all military helicopters and jet fighters.

The tests came during war games being held by the elite Revolutionary Guards
in the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea since Friday at a time of increased
tension with the United States over Tehran's nuclear program.

The television called it a "turning point" in Iran's missile tests but did
not give any further details.

On Tuesday, Iran tested a new surface-to-sea radar-avoiding missile that is
equipped with remote-control and searching systems, state TV reported. It
said the new missile, called Kowsar, was a medium-range weapon that Iran had
the
capability to mass-produce.

It also asserted that the Kowsar's guidance system could not be scrambled,
and it had been designed to sink ships.

Shortly after that test, Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, chief of the Revolutionary
Guards, said Iran can defend itself against any invasion originating from
outside the region - a clear reference to the United States.

"The missile command of the Guards' naval force ... via positioning various
types of surface-to-sea missiles, is able, while defending the coastlines and
islands, to confront any extraterritorial invasion," the official Islamic
Republic News Agency quoted Safavi as saying.

Safavi also called for foreign forces to leave the region. The U.S. 5th
Fleet is based in Bahrain.

On Friday, Iran tested the Fajr-3, a missile that it said can avoid radar
and hit several targets simultaneously using multiple warheads. Iran also has
tested what it calls two new torpedoes.

One of the torpedoes, unveiled Monday, was tested in the Straits of Hormuz,
the narrow entrance to the Gulf that is a vital corridor for oil supplies.
That seemed to be a clear warning to the United States that Iran believes it
has the capability to disable oil tankers moving through the Gulf.

The Revolutionary Guards have been holding their maneuvers - code-named the
"Great Prophet" - since Friday.

Some military analysts in Moscow said it appears the high-speed torpedoes
likely were Russian-built weapons that may have been acquired from China or
Kyrgyzstan.

Others have questioned their capabilities of evading advanced radar systems
such as those in Israel.

The United States said Monday that while Iran may have made "some strides"
in its military, it likely is exaggerating its capabilities.

"We know that the Iranians are always trying to improve their weapons system
by both foreign and indigenous measures," Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman
said. "It's possible that they are increasing their capability and making
strides in radar-absorbing materials and technology."

But "the Iranians have also been known to boast and exaggerate their
statements about greater technical and tactical capabilities," he said.

It has not been possible to verify Iran's claims. But it has made clear that
it aims to send a message of its military strength.

The U.N. Security Council has demanded Iran give up uranium enrichment, a
crucial part of the nuclear process. Washington is pressing for sanctions if
Tehran continues its refusal to do so, though U.S. officials have not ruled
out
military action as an eventual option, insisting they will not allow Iran to
gain a nuclear arsenal.

On Tuesday, state TV also said the Revolutionary Guards had tested what it
called a "super-modern flying boat" capable of evading radar.

The report showed the boat, looking like an aircraft, taking off from the
sea and flying low over the water.

Iran has held war games for two decades to improve its combat readiness and
test locally made equipment.

Iran launched an arms development program during its 1980-88 war with Iraq
to compensate for a U.S. weapons embargo. Since 1992, Iran has produced its
own tanks, armored personnel carriers, missiles and a fighter plane. >>

Follow-Ups:
- [lit-ideas] Re: Iran, Iraq, Israel....it's coming to a head fast, looks like
  - From: Andreas Ramos

[lit-ideas] Iran, Iraq, Israel....it's coming to a head fast, looks like

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