[lit-ideas] Betting on the future...

  • From: "Andreas Ramos" <andreas@xxxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: "Lit-Ideas" <lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Sun, 30 May 2004 11:20:09 -0700

Remember that DARPA scheme to set up a stock market on events in the Middle
East (make bets on whether the USA would win or not, etc.)? That was based
on various other stockmarkets that trade on issues in the news.

The DARPA project was shot down, but the prediction markets continue, mostly
because these are very good at predicting how events will unfold. Thousands
of investors place money on the future outcome of events. The general
consensus usually turns out to be better than expert opinion.

Here are the three major prediction markets:

University of Iowa's market at http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/ was one of the
first and is well-known. The betting is against Kerry. Investors expect Bush
will be elected by a thin margin.

http://us.newsfutures.com lets you bet on an event on either side: Bush will
be elected (yes/no) or Bush won't be elected (yes/no). Bush is 50/50, with
over 211,000 bets.
http://news.us.newsfutures.com/market/market.html?symbol=BUSHWINS The future
looks good for bin Laden and bad for Rumsfeld.

www.tradesports.com. In the menu at left, select Current Events. In the
submenu, select Homeland Security. Here are estimates (bets) on the security
levels (red, orange, etc.) Notice that they'll peak just before the


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