Remember that DARPA scheme to set up a stock market on events in the Middle East (make bets on whether the USA would win or not, etc.)? That was based on various other stockmarkets that trade on issues in the news. The DARPA project was shot down, but the prediction markets continue, mostly because these are very good at predicting how events will unfold. Thousands of investors place money on the future outcome of events. The general consensus usually turns out to be better than expert opinion. Here are the three major prediction markets: University of Iowa's market at http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/ was one of the first and is well-known. The betting is against Kerry. Investors expect Bush will be elected by a thin margin. http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_VS.cfm http://us.newsfutures.com lets you bet on an event on either side: Bush will be elected (yes/no) or Bush won't be elected (yes/no). Bush is 50/50, with over 211,000 bets. http://news.us.newsfutures.com/market/market.html?symbol=BUSHWINS The future looks good for bin Laden and bad for Rumsfeld. http://news.us.newsfutures.com/group/group.html?groupId=1766 www.tradesports.com. In the menu at left, select Current Events. In the submenu, select Homeland Security. Here are estimates (bets) on the security levels (red, orange, etc.) Notice that they'll peak just before the election. yrs, andreas www.andreas.com ------------------------------------------------------------------ To change your Lit-Ideas settings (subscribe/unsub, vacation on/off, digest on/off), visit www.andreas.com/faq-lit-ideas.html