https://theconversation.com/why-action-on-climate-change-gets-stuck-and-what-to-do-about-it-128287
[The $231 million figure provided in the article is the minimum figure
for the cost to be borne by Ontario taxpayers for the Doug Ford
government's inexplicable decision to cancel over 750 renewable energy
projects in a province which is spending tens of billions on nuclear
refurbishment to provide additional electrical generating capacity.
That makes government statements that the renewable capacity is not
needed ring hollow, especially as the energy from the renewables is
projected to cost considerably less per kWh generated than the nuclear
fission projects being funded by taxpayers. The $231 million covers
only the projects where compensation for cancellations has been agreed.
There are still hundreds of the over 750 projects where the amounts are
not yet known. Just one of those other projects could be over $200
million
[https://www.nationalobserver.com/2019/12/20/news/exclusive-wind-farm-owner-launches-court-challenge-against-ontario-government]
and the government has not indicated how may of the 750+ cancelled
projects have settled amounts to compensate project owners.
links and images in online article]
Why action on climate change gets stuck and what to do about it
January 16, 2020
Matthew Hoffmann
Professor of Political Science and Co-Director Environmental Governance
Lab, University of Toronto
Steven Bernstein
Professor of Political Science and Co-Director of the Environmental
Governance Lab, University of Toronto
Work crews descended on 12 commuter parking lots in Toronto in late
November 2018, and headed to the electric vehicle (EV) charging
stations. Their work came on the heels of an IPCC report that warned of
dire environmental, economic and health consequences in the absence of
any serious momentum toward decarbonization by 2030.
But the crews were not adding to the two charging stations installed in
each parking lot in 2013. They came to remove them.
This erasure of one provincial government’s climate project by its
successor was only the tip of the melting iceberg. The steady
unravelling of climate policy began when the newly elected Conservative
government cancelled the provincial cap and trade system and renewable
energy contracts from Ontario’s feed-in-tariff system. It also removed
subsidies for electric vehicles (up to $14,000 per vehicle under the
previous government).
Despite being sold as cost-cutting, some of the reversals have been
expensive. Cancelling 750 renewable-energy projects, for instance, cost
$231 million.
It is tempting to view this unwinding through the lens of the polarized
politics plaguing many western democracies. That misses the bigger picture.
Our research on more than two dozen climate initiatives around the world
— from the community level to the global scale — revealed that the
Ontario story is depressingly familiar. There is no lack of climate
initiatives — our case studies are only a small cross-section of
thousands. Rather, the problem is that these initiatives tend to get
started, make some progress and then get stuck or even regress.
Everything is connected
Dependence on fossil energy means it is difficult for a new policy or
technology in isolation to catalyze breakthrough changes. Part of the
story is the pushback they generate, as happened in Ontario, from
political and economic interests that mobilize opposition.
But overt resistance is not the only obstacle to change. Changing one
thing often runs into the powerful inertia of related policies,
technologies, interests and patterns of behaviour.
For example, a local or provincial policy to incentivize electric
vehicle purchases by allowing free parking or providing subsidies may
make some progress reducing emissions. But if other parts of the
transportation system do not change, the policy will stall or reverse.
Without charging stations, people will have range anxiety. If subsidies
decline or higher levels of government do not impose stricter fuel
standards, markets for EVs can dry up. If the electric grid is supplied
by dirty coal power or other high carbon fuels, EV purchases will have
less effect on overall emissions. If the uptake of EVs remains low as a
result, auto companies and the public may oppose such policies as costly
for limited impact.
These challenging, interdependent dynamics are evident across policies
and scales. Even in Germany, which implemented some of the most
aggressive renewable energy policies, decarbonization has stalled
despite strong public support. Pricing and policy dynamics, such as the
shale gas revolution outside of Germany and the decision to phase out
nuclear power, led to coal becoming the cheapest source of energy,
resulting in the extension of coal-fired power plants.
The German phase-out of coal power will be complete in 2038 (too slow
according to some activists) and comes with billions of Euros in
compensation for coal-producing states and companies.
The purgatory of incremental change
Climate initiatives also get stuck because the momentum they generate is
not always in the direction of substantial change or decarbonization.
For instance, moving from coal-fired to natural gas electricity
production can lower emissions. However, turning to this bridge fuel
reinforces dependence on fossil energy. Political coalitions that
support and benefit from such an initial change might not favour more
aggressive action.
A case in point is Colorado’s New Energy Economy policy. In the
mid-2000s, it included a commitment to shift from coal to renewables
supported by unions and energy companies. The fracking revolution,
however, lowered natural gas prices and encouraged the development of
coalitions that supported it as a transition fuel.
The state government subsequently redefined the new energy economy to
include natural gas, undermining its commitment to renewables. This
shift put Colorado on an improved, but still carbon-intensive, pathway.
The state is in the midst of changing oil and gas regulations again.
These dynamics apply equally to individuals. Studies show that nudging
people to change their daily practices can decrease their support for
broader, transformative policies because they feel they have done enough.
Getting unstuck
Our research has identified four questions to ask when designing and
implementing climate action to counter these dynamics: Does it disrupt
dependence on fossil energy? Does it build coalitions that favour more
aggressive actions? Is it sensitive to broader connections? Does it
spark climate action elsewhere?
These questions suggest a need to value the transformative potential of
any climate action rather than (only) the immediate emissions
reductions. Quick emissions reductions like those generated by fuel
switching are seductive but can stall. Instead policy-makers should
evaluate climate action on whether it contributes to disrupting reliance
on fossil energy and reinforcing alternative paths.
Getting unstuck also requires thinking beyond single policies. A
successful EV policy like Norway’s pays attention to the entire personal
transport sector (taxes and subsidies, infrastructure, etc.). It has
even catalyzed change in the broader transportation sector, including
electric ferries and aviation.
Moreover, the politics of getting started are different than the
politics of maintaining and extending climate action. One way to create
broader coalitions of support is to build justice and equity into every
climate action. Overly technocratic climate initiatives, such as smart
cities, can get stuck and fail to catalyze broad decarbonization in part
because they fail to generate broad and diverse coalitions to build on
initial successes.
Building a better society is not possible without addressing climate
change. Addressing climate change is not politically feasible without
pursuing a more just and equitable society to ensure broad support.
--
Darryl McMahon
Freelance Project Manager (sustainable systems)
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