https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/inuvik-infrastrucrture-study-1.4995948
[As I have said before, in northern climes where climate change is
hitting harder than in more temperate regions, we need to rethink
housing, buildings and other 'fixed in/on ground' structures to be
adaptable and resilient. Building more of same is a recipe for failure.]
Inuvik infrastructure may not be ready for climate change, says study
Research from Global Water Futures says spring flood will double by 2099
if nothing changes
Emily Blake · CBC News ·
Posted: Jan 28, 2019 3:58 PM CT | Last Updated: 5 hours ago
The Arctic is expected to get warmer and wetter by the end of this
century and new research says that could mean trouble for infrastructure
in Inuvik.
The study from Global Water Futures looked at how climate change could
impact Havipak Creek — which crosses the Dempster Highway in Inuvik,
N.W.T. — and it predicts some major water changes.
"They were quite distressing," John Pomeroy, director of Global Water
Futures and the study's lead author, said of the findings.
Researchers used a climate model and a hydrological model to predict
future weather and climate patterns in the region. They also looked at
data gathered from 1960 to the present.
If greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current rate — which
Pomeroy said they are on track to do — the study projects the region
will be 6.1 C warmer by 2099 and precipitation, particularly rain, will
increase by almost 40 per cent.
The study also found that the spring flood will be earlier and twice as
large, and the permafrost will thaw an additional 25 centimetres. While
the soil is expected to be wetter early in the summer, the study said it
will be drier in late summer, meaning a higher risk of wildfires.
"The model's painting kind of a different world than we're living in
right now for the Mackenzie Delta region," Pomeroy said.
He noted these changes are not only expected for Havipak Creek, but also
for "many, many creeks along the northern part of the Dempster [Highway]."
Pomeroy said the deeper permafrost thaw and a bigger spring flood could
pose challenges for buildings, roads, culverts and crossings in the area
that were designed with the 20th century climate in mind.
He said the projected growth of the snowpack and the spring flood are
"of grave concern because that's what washes out the Dempster [Highway]
and damages infrastructure in the area."
Culverts and bridges may have to be adjusted to allow room for greater
stream flows, Pomeroy said. And building foundations that are dependent
upon the ground staying frozen will have to be reinforced or redesigned.
Pomeroy said the ultimate solution is for humans to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions.
"This study is the future we're heading for, but it's not the future we
necessarily have if we can find a way to reduce those gases," he said.
"It'd be far smarter to get those emissions under control than to pay
the terrible expenses for infrastructure and endangered safety of humans
and destroyed ecosystems."
