https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/what-on-earth-newsletter-electric-cars-china-oil-1.4972987
[Not only is China not going to need Canada's oil for expanding their
transportation fleet, China is going to eat Canada's lunch on developing
the technology for future EVs and building them for export. Meanwhile,
Canadian taxpayers are pouring money into buying dinosaur technology
(pipelines, rail equipment, terminals) for a dinosaur industry to launch
us firmly into the 20th century.]
How China's electric car push is shaking up oil markets
CBC News · Posted: Jan 11, 2019 4:00 AM ET
What happened in 2018 that you believe was significant for global oil
consumption?
China's vehicle market broke in the direction of electric vehicles [i.e.
EV sales went up, despite a drop in overall vehicle sales] in mid-year
of 2018, when I was anticipating that might not happen until mid-year
2020. And now that it has broken, it would be a waste of time for people
to ponder whether or not internal combustion engines will make a growth
comeback in China. The growth prospects for internal combustion engines
are over in China.
Why is that significant?
China has a historical record of being able to maximize and supersize
and accelerate changes in its economy and its infrastructure based on
policy. The United States doesn't have that type of ability to do that.
But China does.
I use that as an example of why you should take very seriously China's
current initiative on electrical vehicle adoption, which is just
insanely aggressive. It would be like taking California policy on
electric vehicles and turbocharging it.
Commodity prices are very sensitive to marginal changes in growth rates.
It's very important to the oil industry, for Alberta, to have the market
expect that demand be at least a little bit higher next year. That keeps
the pressure on prices. I believe that when the global oil market
spotted what … started to unfold in China in late summer, I believe that
the global oil market had to start repricing future demand growth for oil.
The global oil industry has been living on the prospect of further Asian
demand growth. And who's at the cornerstone of that? It's China. It's
not often that you can say that copper or gold went way up or way down
based on a single factor. But I'm going to express some confidence here
and say the break in the oil growth for China changed the [global]
forecasts for demand growth.
Are there other indicators of a significant global move from fossil fuels?
The one other country in the world that has the ability to kick the
trajectory of global energy in either one direction or the other is, of
course, India.
Yes, they've somewhat cleaned up the coal industry, but they've also
supported the coal industry, to the dismay of the global climate
community — that's fully acknowledged.
But India is now starting to build solar [power installations] at a very
rapid rate, and has an aggressive policy goal. A beautiful example was
the largest solar installation, called Kamuthi. It's, like, 675
megawatts – that's big, that's huge. Kamuthi was completed within under
a year. Why? Because India was able to hire 10,000 people, and they
completed Kamuthi in less than a year.
The faster you get your project completed, and it starts generating
useful work for you, the faster you start getting paid back.
This interview has been edited and condensed.
