https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/electric-vehicles/evs-affordable-petrol-diesel-next-five-years-deloitte/
[I think Deloitte is about 5 years behind the times. I'm currently
working on a project proposal where the potential buyer of EVs expects
to save money by purchasing EVs over the economic life of the vehicles -
estimated at 5-6 years in their application. Fuel cost + regular
maintenance is a bigger cost item than the vehicle over its life in
their case. However, I know some individuals who have also concluded
that an EV is a financial winner in their lives, before GHG feebate
programs or environmental benefits are considered. As a rule of thumb,
our fuel costs for an EV are about 1/6 to 1/8 the cost of gasoline. The
EV does not require oil changes, spark plugs, an exhaust system ... We
get a 10% insurance discount for driving an EV or hybrid. When we start
including the cost of climate change impacts into liquid fossil fuels,
that is going to shift the balance hard.
Deloitte does not appear to include the falling prices of advanced
batteries and the cost of a 'carbon tax' on fossil fuels in their analysis.]
EVs as affordable as conventional vehicles in five years time
January 23, 2019
The cost of ownership for electric vehicles (EVs) could match petrol and
diesel cars within the next five years, according to new research
conducted by Deloitte.
The study reveals that consumer concerns regarding the upfront costs of
purchasing EVs will gradually wane as technology improves.
A total of two million EVs were sold worldwide in 2018, and as prices
approach parity with petrol and diesel vehicles, EV sales are expected
to reach 4 million by 2020.
The number is expected to reach 12 million by 2025 and 21 million by 2030.
Factors to drive demand to include growing consumer demand for greener
vehicles and increase in government incentives for EV ownership.
Michael Woodward, UK Automotive Partner at Deloitte said: “In the UK,
the cost of petrol and diesel vehicle ownership will converge with
electric over the next five years.
"Supported by existing government subsidies and technology advances,
this tipping point could be reached as early as 2021. From this point,
cost will no longer be a barrier to purchase and owning an EV will
become a realistic, viable option for new buyers.”
The report, however, cautions that projections for supply will greatly
outweigh consumer demand by approximately 14 million units over the next
decade as manufacturers increase production capacity.
Woodward added: “Those that can successfully build trust in their brand,
ensure a positive customer experience from initial sale after through to
aftercare and reflect consumer shifts towards the sharing economy in
future business models will successfully navigate this. Equally,
continual investment in engineering talent and the formation of
partnerships with bespoke battery producers and third-party mechanic
networks will also be important.”
[Deloitte press release:
https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/press-releases/articles/21-million-more-electric-vehicles-expected-worldwide-by-2030.html
The full study does not appear to be available online.]
