https://theconversation.com/britain-has-shifted-30-of-its-electricity-away-from-fossil-fuels-in-just-nine-years-108969
[If a group (or country) is committed to making a change, it is
remarkable what can be accomplished in a relatively short time.
interactive images and links in online article]
Britain has shifted 30% of its electricity away from fossil fuels in
just nine years
January 10, 2019 9.38am EST
Nine years ago, Britain generated nearly 75% of its electricity using
natural gas and coal. In 2018, this dropped to under 45% – a remarkable
transition away from fossil fuels in under a decade.
As energy efficiency improved, demand fell, and the UK generated less
electricity than at any point since 1994. Our own analysis below looks
at the past year, using similar data for Great Britain (as Northern
Ireland has a separate power system), and we include net imports from
France, the Netherlands and Ireland as an overall part of electrical
generation. Here are a few things we found:
[image]
In 2018, Britain was coal-free for a record 1,898 hours – that’s up from
just 200 hours in 2016. Coal generation fell for the sixth year in a
row, and the country now has substantial periods without coal power (the
longest stretch was just over three days straight).
For comparison, the 5% of electricity generated from coal was a broadly
similar level to the combined total of solar and hydro (see table at end
of the article). Wind increased its output to 17% of the total, and
combined with solar these two renewables generated more electricity than
nuclear – another significant milestone.
However, low levels of coal generation averaged across the year mask its
importance at times when the electrical demand is particularly high. For
example, over the week of the Beast from the East cold snap in February
2018, the gas system experienced significant stress and coal stepped in
to provide nearly a quarter of Britain’s electricity. As coal generation
is set to be phased out by 2025, the electrical system needs to continue
to find alternative power sources to cope during extreme weather events.
Our analysis shows that annual renewable generation has increased by 27
terawatt hours (TWh) over the three years since 2015. This is
particularly impressive considering the Hinkley Point C nuclear plant
will produce a similar annual amount of electricity but will take three
times as long to build (from contract signing).
Challenges ahead
But what about the decade ahead? Could Britain repeat its success since
2010 and reduce its coal and natural gas generation by a further 30
percentage points? Under this scenario, the country would then generate
just a sixth of its electricity from fossil fuels.
It’s definitely possible, but the next decade will be more challenging
for two main reasons: the demand for electricity is expected to rise
rather than fall, and incorporating ever greater levels of variable
renewable generation will need additional flexibility.
To achieve this, new renewable generation – new solar panels, new
turbines, new hydro, tidal, marine and biomass generation – will have to
replace an estimated 100 TWh per year (about four Hinkley Point Cs) from
fossil fuels. That would require a build programme that was broadly 50%
greater than the previous nine years.
Given the continued development of offshore wind in particular, this
seems challenging but achievable. Solar and wind prices keep falling,
which will help. Indeed, the UK’s business and energy secretary Greg
Clarke recently said that “it is looking likely that by the mid 2020s,
green power will be the cheapest power. It can be zero subsidy”.
However, at some point over the next decade, electrical demand will stop
falling as electric vehicles gain market share from fossil fuel
vehicles, and electrical heating for homes becomes more popular. As an
indication of the scale of the transport demand, in 2017 UK cars and
taxis travelled 254 billion miles. If all those journeys were taken in
electric vehicles about as efficient as the latest Hyundai or Tesla then
total electrical demand would increase by a quarter (over 80 TWh).
These vehicles would need the equivalent of three Hinkley Point Cs to
charge them over the year.
This is also a similar level to current generation from renewables. The
UK also needs to consider how to fill the gap that would be lost from
fuel duty, which is forecast to raise around £28 billion this financial
year.
If charging these vehicles adds to electrical demand at peak times,
there would be substantial new infrastructure costs (more pylons,
stronger electrical sub-stations). If Britain adopts a smarter system,
fleets of electric vehicles could provide network support by changing
their times of charging or even providing electricity back to the grid.
This could provide a massive new form of flexibility that is needed to
accommodate greater levels of weather dependent renewable generation.
This is not an easy task, though, and needs better communication between
vehicle, owner and power companies.
Steady progress
Overall, 2018 saw steady progress for low carbon generation, including
record months for wind, biomass and, mid-heatwave, solar:
[image]
Looking to 2019, with more renewable capacity being installed, it is
possible that solar could overtake coal, and renewables could generate
more than nuclear for every single month. They could also generate more
than coal and gas combined over a month for the first ever time. If any
of these do happen, it will be yet another indication of the speed at
which Britain’s electricity system is changing.