https://phys.org/news/2019-04-air-temperatures-arctic.html
[images, links and video in online article]
April 8, 2019
Air temperatures in the Arctic are driving system change
by Sue Mitchell, University of Alaska Fairbanks
A new paper shows that air temperature is the "smoking gun" behind
climate change in the Arctic, according to John Walsh, chief scientist
for the UAF International Arctic Research Center.
"The Arctic system is trending away from its 20th century state and into
an unprecedented state, with implications not only within but beyond the
Arctic," according to lead author Jason Box of the Geological Survey of
Denmark and Greenland in Copenhagen.
Several University of Alaska Fairbanks researchers are co-authors on the
paper, which says that "increasing air temperatures and precipitation
are drivers of major changes in various components of the Arctic system."
The study is the first to combine observations of physical climate
indicators, such as snow cover, with biological impacts, such as a
mismatch in the timing of flowers blooming and pollinators working.
Climate indicators are key pieces of information that capture the
essence of a system, according to Walsh. An example would be September
sea ice extent, which summarizes the effects of things like temperature,
winds, ocean heat and other variables.
"I didn't expect the tie-in with temperature to be as strong as it was,"
Walsh said. "All the variables are connected with temperature. All
components of the Arctic system are involved in this change."
"Never have so many Arctic indicators been brought together in a single
paper," he said.
The authors correlated records of observations from 1971 to 2017 of nine
key indicators: air temperature, permafrost, hydroclimatology, snow
cover, sea ice, land ice, wildfires, tundra and terrestrial ecosystems,
and carbon cycling. All the indicators correlate with rising
temperatures, pointing to a warming climate and a fundamental change in
the Arctic.
"The Arctic system is trending away from its 20th century state and into
an unprecedented state, with implications not only within but beyond the
Arctic," according to lead author Jason Box of the Geological Survey of
Denmark and Greenland in Copenhagen.
"Because the Arctic atmosphere is warming faster than the rest of the
world, weather patterns across Europe, North America and Asia are
becoming more persistent, leading to extreme weather conditions. Another
example is the disruption of the ocean circulation that can further
destabilize climate: for example, cooling across northwestern Europe and
strengthening of storms," said Box.
The paper is the flagship piece in a special issue on Arctic climate
change indicators published by the journal Environmental Research
Letters. IARC's Igor Polyakov is lead editor for this special issue,
which has other papers co-authored by UAF scientists. In addition to
Walsh, the authors include the Geophysical Institute's Uma Bhatt and
Vladimir Romanovsky, and Eugénie Euskirchen of the Institute of Arctic
Biology, along with many international colleagues.
The authors of the study hope that these indicator-based observations
provide a foundation for a more integrated understanding of the Arctic
and its role in the dynamics of the Earth's biogeophysical systems.
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