[karc] Fwd: [RAC-Bulletin] WOCN31 CWHX 280545,Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian,Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 2:54 AM ADT Sunday,28 October 2012.
- From: Steve Cutway <ve3kc@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: karc@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Sun, 28 Oct 2012 12:56:08 -0400
>Date: Sun, 28 Oct 2012 03:10:17 -0400
>From: rac-bulletins@xxxxxxx
>Subject: [RAC-Bulletin] WOCN31 CWHX 280545,Tropical cyclone information
> statement updated by the Canadian,Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at
> 2:54 AM ADT Sunday,28 October 2012.
>To: Steve Cutway VE3KC <ve3kc@xxxxxx>
>Reply-to: rachq@xxxxxx
>Organization: Radio Amateurs of Canada
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>
>WOCN31 CWHX 280545
>Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian
>Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 2:54 AM ADT Sunday
>28 October 2012.
>---------------------------------------------------------------------
>Tropical cyclone information statement for:
> Nova Scotia
> New Brunswick
> Southern Quebec
> Southern Ontario.
>
> For hurricane Sandy.
>
> The next statement will be issued by 9:00 AM ADT.
>
> Hurricane Sandy to transition to large and dangerous
> Post-tropical cyclone on Monday. Parts of Maritimes as well as
> Southern Ontario and Quebec will feel some far-reaching effects
> From post-tropical storm Sandy later on Monday and Tuesday.
>
>---------------------------------------------------------------------
>Tropical cyclone information statement ended for:
> Prince Edward Island.
>
>---------------------------------------------------------------------
>==discussion==
>1. Summary of basic information at 3.00 AM ADT.
>
>Location: 31.5 north 73.7 west about 450 kilometres south-southeast
>of Cape Hatteras.
>
>Maximum sustained winds: 120 km/h.
>
>Present movement: northeast 22 km/h.
>
>Minimum central pressure: 960 MB.
>
>2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.
>
>Hurricane Sandy is currently moving northeastward well southeast of
>Cape Hatteras. Sandy is forecast to continue to this track today
>then gradually transition into a large and intense post-tropical
>cyclone on Monday as it turns toward the northwest. It is possible
>that this interaction could intensify the storm slightly further -
>even after transitioning into a post-tropical system - prior to
>moving inland somewhere along the New Jersey coast late Monday night
>or Tuesday morning.
>
>It is important to emphasize that impacts from post-tropical Sandy
>will extend over a large area well away from the storm center. In
>additon there are still various factors that could influence the
>evolution of the storm and as a result there is still some degree of
>uncertainty with respect to the magnitude of the potential impacts
>from the storm over Canadian territory. For this reason people
>living in these areas are urged to pay close attention to messages
>from the Canadian Hurricane Centre as well as forecasts from
>Regional storm prediction centres in the possible event of future
>weather warnings.
>
>Additional information on potential impacts in Ontario and Quebec
>Can be found in the wocn11 special weather statement issued by
>The Ontario storm prediction centre, and in the wocn10 special
>weather statement issued by the Quebec storm prediction centre.
>
>A. Rainfall.
>
>Based on the current forecast scenario, rain from post-tropical
>Sandy won't begin to affect Canadian territory until later Monday
>night or Tuesday morning. Southern and Eastern Ontario and Western
>Quebec are likely to see the most rainfall from this system with
>total amounts by Tuesday evening possibly reaching the 50 to 100
>millimetre range which would be typical for post-tropical
>Weather systems. However since post-tropical Sandy will be
>interacting with a stalled front over Ontario, localised heavier
>rainfall amounts of over 100 millimetres are possible over areas
>adjacent to Lake Ontario northward to Algonquin Park.
>
>Heavy rain could also affect other parts of Quebec with amounts of 20
>millimetres likely. At this time, the probability of rainfall
>amounts exceeding 25 millimetres for these areas is around 40%.
>Heavier rain is expected over the Maritimes and amounts in this area
>could exceed 50 millimetres.
>
>The precipitation could mix with or turn into snow over parts of
>South-Central Ontario and extreme Western Quebec as temperatures
>approach the freezing mark north and west of the storm.
>A significant snowfall event could result over Central Ontario.
>
>The Maritimes will likely see significant rainfall late Monday night
>and Tuesday - and possibly lingering into Wednesday - from an
>evolving frontal system wrapping around the large upper-level
>circulation from post-tropical Sandy.
>
>B. Winds.
>
>Most areas of Southern Ontario will be subject to very windy
>conditions with possible severe gusts in excess of 100 km/h
>especially along Western Lake Ontario and the Niagara Escarpment.
>These gusts could cause broken tree limbs or in some cases uprooted
>trees which may result in downed utility lines. Residual falling
>leaves can also obstruct storm water drainage systems along roadways
>particularly in urban areas. This combined with heavy rainfall could
>increase the risk of flooding in some areas.
>
>Very strong northeast winds will also affect eastern and Western
>Quebec. There is a good probability of wind gusts exceeding 90 km/h.
>Gusty winds can also be expected in the Maritimes especially Monday
>night.
>
>C. Waves.
>
>Large waves are very likely over portions of the Great Lakes
>beginning late Monday and into Tuesday. High seastates up to 6
>Metres are likely over Southern Lake Huron.
>
>There will be a risk for large waves and pounding surf along the
>Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia especially along the south shore as
>wave activity begins to increase beginning late Monday and peaks
>On Tuesday. These large waves could produce pounding surf conditions
>and the possibility of locally elevated water levels.
>
>3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.
>
>Gale force winds extend several hundred kilometres outward from
>The center of Sandy's circulation and are expected to spread to
>Canadian waters well in advance of Sandy reaching the United States
>coastline. The Ontario storm prediction centre has issued gale
>warnings for many parts of the Southern Great Lakes for Monday.
>The Atlantic storm prediction centre has issued gale warnings for
>western maritime marine waters for Monday as well. There is a
>possibility of storm force winds over these areas overnight Monday
>Or Tuesday.
>
>Also, higher than normal water levels are expected on the St Lawrence
>River during high tide Monday evening and especially Tuesday evening.
>This could result in coastal flooding in the Quebec City region.
>
>
>Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the
>latest:
>
>- forecast position, central pressure table.
>
>- strength and predicted wind radii table.
>
>- hurricane track information map.
>
>- technical discussion.
>
>Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
>issued by Environment Canada for your area.
>
>End
>
>
>FXCN31 CWHX 280600
>TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
>CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2.55 AM ADT
>SUNDAY 28 OCTOBER 2012.
>
>THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT
>
>1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
>
>AT 3.00 AM ADT, HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 N AND
>LONGITUDE 73.7 W, ABOUT 244 NAUTICAL MILES OR 452 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
>OF CAPE HATTERAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS
>(120 KM/H) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 960 MB. SANDY IS MOVING NORTHEAST
>AT 12 KNOTS (22 KM/H).
>
>2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
>
>DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
> ADT MB KTS KMH
>OCT 28 3.00 AM 31.5N 73.7W 960 65 120
>OCT 28 3.00 PM 33.2N 72.1W 959 65 120
>OCT 29 3.00 AM 35.2N 71.3W 957 65 120
>OCT 29 3.00 PM 37.9N 71.3W 955 70 130 POST-TROPICAL
>OCT 30 3.00 AM 39.9N 73.4W 958 65 120 POST-TROPICAL
>OCT 30 3.00 PM 40.5N 75.8W 964 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
>OCT 31 3.00 AM 41.0N 76.9W 970 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
>OCT 31 3.00 PM 43.1N 77.0W 978 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
>NOV 01 3.00 AM 44.8N 77.7W 982 30 56 POST-TROPICAL
>NOV 01 3.00 PM 47.0N 77.2W 982 25 46 POST-TROPICAL
>
>
>3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
>
>A. ANALYSIS
>
>DESPITE LOTS OF DRY AIR WATER WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
>SIDES OF SANDY'S LARGE CIRCULATION CENTRE, THERE HAS STILL BEEN A FEW
>BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR SANDY'S CENTER DURING THE NIGHT, AND LATEST
>AIRCRAFT RECONAISSANCE DATA INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS
>STRENGTHENED SOMEWHAT SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, INTENSITY IS
>MAINTAINED AT 65 KNOTS FOR NOW WITH A MEASURED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 960
>MB. CURRENT MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS. SURFACE
>OBSERVATIONS ALREADY INDICATE AN UNUSUALLY LARGE RADIUS OF GALE AND
>STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD SEVERAL HUNDERED MILES IN MOST
>DIRECTIONS FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTRE, AND WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
>ADJUSTED TO TRY AND REFLECT THIS.
>
>
>
>B. PROGNOSTIC
>
>NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TRACK OR PHILOSOPHY. THERE IS
>STILL A POSSIBILITY SANDY COULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO
>24 HOURS AS ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR COULD DECREASE SOMEHWAT WHILE UPPER
>LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS GENERALLY FAVOURABLE. MOST GLOBAL DYNAMICAL
>MODELS ARE STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR SANDY TO CONTINUE A
>NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
>EASTERN UNITED STATES. THEREAFTER, THIS TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH AN
>UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SANDY TO TAKE A
>TURN TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE US EAST COAST. PHASE SPACE PROGNOSIS
>INDICATES THAT SANDY WILL REMAIN A WARM CORE SYSTEM TODAY BUT IS
>EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
>BEFORE GOING INLAND AS A VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM.
>
>
>ON TUESDAY, GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT POST-TROPICAL SANDY WILL
>BECOME CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY
>AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. IT IS
>HERE WHERE THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH THE
>GEM-GLOBAL SHOWING A FASTER NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
>FOLLOWED BY A REDEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST, WHILE THE GFS CURVES
>THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE LOOPING A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM
>NORTHWARD INTO ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF
>POST-TROPICAL SANDY ONCE ITS INLAND ON TUESDAY AND BEYOND IS RATHER
>LOW AT THIS POINT.
>
>C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
>
>TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
> NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
>28/06Z 380 350 350 320 250 250 250 250 55 65 95 90
>28/18Z 390 355 350 320 250 250 250 250 70 100 115 100
>29/06Z 400 360 350 320 270 250 225 225 80 120 120 100
>29/18Z 430 360 350 320 300 250 225 200 75 100 100 90
>30/06Z 420 350 330 300 270 200 175 150 35 40 40 40
>30/18Z 330 270 200 180 120 120 100 80 0 0 0 0
>31/06Z 200 160 120 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
>31/18Z 120 120 90 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
>01/06Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
>01/18Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
>
>
>END/BORGEL
>
>
>
>--
>
>
> * * * *
>
>
>
>
>
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