[karc] Fwd: [RAC-Bulletin] [EMCOMM]: WOCN31 CWHX 271745,Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian,Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada,At 2:57 PM ADT Saturday 27 October 2012
- From: Steve Cutway <ve3kc@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: karc@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Sat, 27 Oct 2012 16:11:35 -0400
>Date: Sat, 27 Oct 2012 15:20:06 -0400
>From: rac-bulletins@xxxxxxx
>Subject: [RAC-Bulletin] [EMCOMM]: WOCN31 CWHX 271745,Tropical cyclone
> information statement updated by the Canadian,Hurricane Centre of
> Environment
> Canada,At 2:57 PM ADT Saturday 27 October 2012
>To: Steve Cutway VE3KC <ve3kc@xxxxxx>
>Reply-to: rachq@xxxxxx
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>
>
>WOCN31 CWHX 271745
>Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian
>Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada
>At 2:57 PM ADT Saturday 27 October 2012
>---------------------------------------------------------------------
>Tropical cyclone information statement for:
> Nova Scotia
> Prince Edward Island
> New Brunswick
> Southern Quebec
> Southern Ontario.
>
> For hurricane Sandy.
>
> The next statement will be issued by 9:00 PM ADT.
>
> Hurricane Sandy will be reaching the East Coast of the united
> States on Monday. While the most severe conditions will
> Affect Northeastern United States, wide-ranging and
> Signigicant impacts are expected across parts of eastern
> Canada.
>
>---------------------------------------------------------------------
>==discussion==
>1. Summary of basic information at 3.00 PM ADT.
>
>Location: 29.5north 75.7west about 440 kilometres northeast of
>Freeport Bahamas.
>
>Maximum sustained winds: 120 km/h.
>
>Present movement: north-northeast 15 km/h
>
>Minimum central pressure: 958 MB
>
>2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.
>
>Hurricane Sandy is currently north of the Bahamas and is moving
>north-northeastward. Although Sandy briefly weakened to a
>Tropical storm earlier today maximum sustained winds associated
>With it have increased to 120 km/h bringing Sandy back to hurricane
>status. During the weekend Sandy is forecast to continue to track
>north or northeastward while remaining at hurricane strength. Sandy
>will gradually lose some of its tropical characteristics and on
>Monday it is expected to take an uncharacteristic turn to the
>northwest and begin interacting with an approaching trough from the
>west.
>
>Current indications from various weather models are that Sandy could
>strengthen before moving inland on the United States East Coast in
>the vicinity of Delaware late Monday as a very large and powerful
>storm. It is important to remember that impacts will cover a large
>area well away from the center. There are various factors
>Influencing the evolution of the storm and as a result there is
>Still some degree of uncertainty with respect to the magnitude of
>The impacts from the storm. For this reason people living in these
>areas are urged to pay close attention to messages from the Canadian
>Hurricane Centre and local weather forecasts and possible future
>warnings throughout the weekend.
>
>A. Rainfall.
>
>Based on the current forecast scenario, Southern and Eastern Ontario
>and Western Quebec are likely to see the most rainfall from this
>system with total amounts by Tuesday evening possibly reaching the 50
>to 100 millimetre range which would be typical for post-tropical
>weather systems. However since post-tropical Sandy will be
>interacting with a stalled front over Ontario, localised heavier
>rainfall amounts of over 100 mm are possible over areas adjacent
>To Lake Ontario northward to Algonquin Park.
>
>Heavy rain could also affect other parts of Quebec with amounts of
>20 mm likely. At this time, the probability of rainfall amounts
>exceeding 25 mm for these areas is around 40%. Heavier rain is
>expected over the Maritimes and amounts in this area could exceed 50
>mm.
>
>The precipitation could mix with or turn into snow over parts of
>South-Central Ontario and extreme Western Quebec as temperatures
>approach the freezing mark north and west of the storm. A
>Significant snowfall event could occur over Central Ontario.
>
>B. Winds.
>
>Most areas of Southern Ontario will be subject to very windy
>conditions with possible severe gusts in excess of 100 km/h
>especially along Western Lake Ontario and the Niagara Escarpment.
>These gusts could cause broken tree limbs or in some cases uprooted
>trees which may result in downed utility lines. Residual falling
>leaves can also obstruct storm water drainage systems along roadways
>particularly in urban areas. This combined with heavy rainfall could
>increase the risk of flooding in some areas.
>
>Very strong northeast winds will also affect eastern and Western
>Quebec. There is a good probability of wind gusts exceeding 90
>Km/h. Gusty winds can also be expected in the Maritimes especially
>Monday night.
>
>C. Waves.
>
>There will be a risk for large waves along the Atlantic coast of
>Nova Scotia especially along the south shore as wave activity begins
>to increase Monday into Tuesday. These large waves could produce
>pounding surf conditions.
>
>3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.
>
>Gale force winds are expected to spread to Canadian waters well in
>advance of Sandy reaching the United States coastline. Gales are
>expected on Monday over the Great Lakes, the St Lawrence seaway and
>western Maritimes marine waters. There is a possibility of storm
>force winds over southwestern marine areas of the Maritimes and on
>the Great Lakes.
>
>Also, higher than normal water levels are expected on the st
>Lawrence River during high tide Monday evening and especially
>Tuesday evening. This could result in coastal flooding in the
>Quebec City region.
>
>Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the
>latest:
>
>- forecast position, central pressure table.
>
>- strength and predicted wind radii table.
>
>- hurricane track information map.
>
>- technical discussion.
>
>Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
>issued by Environment Canada for your area.
>
>End
>
>FXCN31 CWHX 271800
>TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
>CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2.55 PM ADT
>SATURDAY 27 OCTOBER 2012.
>
>THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT
>
>1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
>
>AT 3.00 PM ADT, HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 N AND
>LONGITUDE 75.7 W, ABOUT 238 NAUTICAL MILES OR 440 KM NORTHEAST OF
>FREEPORT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS (120 KM/H)
>AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 958 MB. SANDY IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 8
>KNOTS (15 KM/H).
>
>2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
>
>DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
> ADT MB KTS KMH
>OCT 27 3.00 PM 29.5N 75.7W 958 65 120
>OCT 28 3.00 AM 31.3N 74.2W 955 65 120
>OCT 28 3.00 PM 33.2N 72.8W 950 65 120
>OCT 29 3.00 AM 35.3N 72.0W 950 70 130
>OCT 29 3.00 PM 37.2N 73.2W 955 65 120
>OCT 30 3.00 AM 38.9N 75.8W 960 60 111
>OCT 30 3.00 PM 40.0N 77.1W 968 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
>OCT 31 3.00 AM 40.5N 77.4W 975 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
>OCT 31 3.00 PM 41.5N 77.3W 980 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
>NOV 01 3.00 AM 43.0N 77.0W 985 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
>
>
>3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
>
>A. ANALYSIS
>
>HURRICANE SANDY CONTINUES TO HAVE INTENSE CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE
>WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTRE. BUOY B41010 ABOUT 90 NAUTICAL MILES
>SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTRE CONTINUES TO MEASURE NORTHERLY GUSTS TO
>HURRICANE FORCE IN THIS DEEP CONVECTION. SFMR AND DROPSONDE DATA
>INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF 55 KNOT WINDS IN THIS CONVECTION TO THE WEST
>AS WELL. WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER
>LEVELS WELL WITHIN THE CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF SANDY'S
>CENTRE.
>
>SANDY TOOK A WOBBLE TO THE EAST THIS MORNING BUT THE LONGER TERM
>MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 030 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE
>DATA THIS MORNING INDICATED THAT SANDY HAD REGAINED HURRICANE
>STRENGTH. IN ADDITION THE WIND
>FIELD CONTINUES TO GET LARGER AS MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND
>BUOY B41010.
>
>
>B. PROGNOSTIC
>
>GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SANDY TO ACCELERATE
>NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
>EASTERN UNITED STATES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
>THIS
>DEEP LAYER TROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND CAUSE SANDY TO TAKE A TURN TO THE
>NORTHWEST TOWARD THE US EAST COAST. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR
>NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH UNTIL MONDAY. PHASE SPACE PROGNOSIS INDICATES
>THAT ALTHOUGH SANDY WILL BE RECEIVING BAROCLINIC INFLUENCE FROM THE
>WEST, THE STORM WILL MAINTAIN A WARM CORE UNTIL IT MOVES INLAND. LATE
>MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING SANDY IS EXPECTED TO GO INLAND
>AS A LARGE POWERFUL CYCLONE WHILE BECOMING POST-TROPICAL.
>
>ON TUESDAY, GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT POST-TROPICAL SANDY WILL
>BECOME CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND IN THE
>UNITED STATES. POST-TROPICAL SANDY IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
>SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, REACHING SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY
>MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF SANDY WILL BE GREATLY WEAKENED AND WILL THEN
>SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE UPPER LOW. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE
>THAT THE BIGGEST IMPACTS IN CANADA FROM SANDY WILL OCCUR WELL BEFORE
>THE CENTRE MOVES INTO CANADA. IN FACT THE STORM WILL LIKELY BE GREATLY
>WEAKENED BEFORE ENTERING CANADA.
>
>VERY STRONG WINDS AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF
>SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS POST-TROPICAL
>SANDY APPROACHES. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST SOME SNOW IS LIKELY
>ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN
>CAN BE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF THE MARITIMES ON TUESDAY AS A BAND OF RAIN
>MOVES NORTHWARD WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF SANDY'S CENTRE.
>
>
>C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
>
>TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
> NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
>27/18Z 390 225 205 280 40 55 135 130 0 0 90 30
>28/06Z 375 285 270 280 65 110 150 150 0 0 90 90
>28/18Z 360 315 300 300 85 135 160 160 0 30 90 90
>29/06Z 360 345 315 330 110 155 175 170 0 30 90 90
>29/18Z 360 360 280 250 140 170 130 130 0 30 50 50
>30/06Z 360 360 175 100 180 190 50 50 0 0 0 0
>30/18Z 360 360 120 100 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0
>31/06Z 360 360 120 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
>31/18Z 200 200 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
>01/06Z 50 50 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
>
>
>END/COUTURIER/HATT
>
>--
>
> * * * *
>
>
>
>
>
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