[gha] Geneva II
- From: Wadlowz@xxxxxxx
- To: gha@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Sun, 2 Feb 2014 11:06:31 -0500 (EST)
Here is a text I am sending around to a number of people as I think that a
push in the next few days, especially encouragement to the Russian Foreign
Ministry , would be important , best wishes, Rene
Geneva II: « A Modest Beginning On Which We Can Build »
Rene Wadlow
The United Nations-League of Arab States Envoy Lakhdar Brahimi, in a press
conference announcing a break until 10 February 2014 of the Geneva II
negotiations said that the negotiations had been “a modest beginning on which
we
can build.” It was expected that Geneva II on the Syrian armed conflict
would be long and difficult. Geneva I had been short and relatively easy
since only the Russians and the USA were speaking to each other, and both
had the “Yemen model” in mind: the president of Yemen goes into a safe exile,
a slightly broader transition government is formed, nothing else changes —
no reforms, no greater security but life is a bit better than before.
Geneva II everyone predicted would be more difficult as Syrians would
participate in the discussion — the Syrian Government and some but not all of
the armed opposition factions. Geneva II started in Montreux at the opposite
end of the Lake of Geneva because on the days chosen for the often
postponed start, there was a trade show for expensive watches in Geneva, and
the
types of hotels where Foreign Ministers stay were all booked. Montreux has a
good number of 1900-style hotels from the time that people spent their
summers on the lake shore. Some 40 States attended the start, some because
they were directly concerned, others to give encouragement. After the one-day
start, some participants left for Davos — the World Economic Forum — to
talk trade, and the Syrians moved to Geneva.
The official Syrian delegations met in the UN Palais des Nations but not
always together — Brahimi going from one conference room to the next. Other
interested parties — uninvited opposition groups, Kurds, Lebanese, met in
quiet restaurants and hotel rooms. The Iranians have a large Mission to the
UN. While some Iranian diplomats went with their President to Davos, some
stayed to see what was going on among the Syrians. Also it has long been
known that independent arms merchants live in the hills above Montreux,
giving them a fine view on the lake — though the arms are kept elsewhere. If
they were not able to finish their sales to Syrian groups on their stay in
Montreux, the arms merchants have the resources to drive to Geneva.
What is now possible to build on the modest beginning? What role can
outside governments and non-governmental conflict-resolution organizations
play?
The distance among Syrians and the intensity of negative feelings was
symbolized by rival Syrian groups demonstrating in the square just beyond the
UN property. The “Place des Nations” belongs to the city of Geneva.
While one needs a police permit to demonstrate legally, the permits are
normally granted. There are often groups with signs and fliers. The police
watch, but usually have little to do. There are rarely groups holding
conflicting views at the same time as was seen during the Syrian negotiations.
The
police prevented violence, but they had to do more than just watch.
Although there was no formal agreement between the Syrian Government and
the armed opposition, the one topic on which there might be an agreement was
on temporary access of humanitarian relief to some conflict areas and
internally-displaced people camps. Such humanitarian relief is urgently
needed;
a large number of people have left their homes unable to take supplies
with them; certain towns and parts of cities are the scene of continued
fighting. No-man-lands are unclear, and there are no official “safe havens”.
In some of my contacts with the Russian Foreign Ministry concerning the
possibility of their offering their good offices to the Syrian Government for
relief, I received the impression that the Russians are willing to make an
effort along these lines. Aid to the city of Homs — the third most
populated of Syria — has been mentioned. Aid to displaced-persons camps is
more difficult as different, non-cooperating groups hold different segments of
the roads.
At this stage, US or more generally Western government influence is slight
both with the Syrian Government and with the most hard-line of the
opposition. Thus it is basically the Russians who can take the lead.
However,
there are US-based and Western European relief organizations, and they may be
able to play a logistic role and use US and Western European food and
medical supplies
There is only a short time for private discussions to reach an agreement
before the 10 February public restart. If an agreement can be reached
between now and 10 February so that the agreement could be announced at the
start
of the negotiations, it could help the more political aspects of the
negotiations. In any case, humanitarian aid is needed to limit the current
heavy suffering.
Thus we must use the influence we have in the next few days to push for an
accord on relief supplies
Rene Wadlow, President and Representative to the UN, Geneva, Association
of World Citizens
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