[freeroleplay] Re: Probability Question
- From: Jerry Stratton <jerry@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: freeroleplay@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Wed, 19 Nov 2003 17:13:10 -0800
At 6:50 PM -0600 on 11/18/03, James Jensen wrote:
>That's what I don't like about the system. A 2d10 system would probably
>suit me better because then the chance of either a natural 20 or natural
>2 goes to 1:50, which means that you can make those automatic
>success/failure's without completely disregarding common sense. More
>importantly, I suspect bell-curves are more fun game-wise -- which is
>what we're trying to have, really.
Yes, just remember that you also have to adjust target numbers according, as
those high-end numbers become exceedingly hard to reach, and the lower ones
become exceedingly easy.
(Oh, and a 2d10 will not be a bell curve; you need three dice for that; two
dice give you a V-shaped distribution.)
I tend to vacillate; I use d20 for Gods & Monsters, but 2d10 (with re-rolling
of ones) for Men & Supermen. Two (or more) dice provide a wider range of
probabilities and make it easier to compress scores; but one die is much easier
for players to understand their chance of success. I think the latter is very
important. Players already have few enough indicators of what "real life" is
like for their characters, I don't like to reduce their feedback even further.
This is why, while I initially enjoyed the Shadowrun 1st edition system of
rolling multiple open-ended dice vs. target numbers, I've never made use of it
myself.
In either case, I see automatic success/failure as mostly a matter of style,
not probability. In most cases, being able to get an automatic success is not
going to make a difference, as a single automatic success will not affect the
outcome of a situation that requires it. You can't plan on an automatic success
happening.
Now, I did like 2nd edition D&D's option of receiving another attack on a roll
of 20. That made natural twenties as fun as they should be without skewing
probabilities in weird ways. If the required roll is high, that natural 20 will
probably not help; if the required roll is lower, the natural 20 probably will
help.
Jerry
--
jerry@xxxxxxxxxx It Isn't Murder If They're Yankees
http://www.ItIsntMurder.com/
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