Thus far, Putin has put forward two principle reasons for his invasion.
Neither are valid but, as with any good lir, they do have a kernel of
truth...
Firstly, in his long television speech he claimed that the Russians and
Ukrainians were the same peoples and have been so for centuries. So his
genocide is against his own ppeople.
As with every good lie, there is some truth to this. Due to its geography
and location, Ukraine has had only brief years as a totally independent
state during its history. After the demise of Kevian Rus, it has been
ruled by the Mongols, Lithuanians, Poles, Germans, Communists, and since
Catherine the Great, by Russia. Austria, Sweden, the Prussians, the
French, and the Ottomans have had controlled parts of the country. At
various times, occupiers have attempted to impose other languages and
customs, forbidden the Ukrainian language in schools, books, theatre, and
culture, all without success.
That past does not rule the present. Indeed, given the circumstances it is
amazing that the Ukrainian language, traditions, and culture have remained
distinctive. From the time it was taken by Communists it was recognized a
distinct entity, interwoven with the USSR in many ways, a semiautonomous
republic. After the collapse of the USSR in 1991 it has been fiercely
independent.
Simply as a neighbouring country shares many traits with its neighbour does
not give one any right to claim rights over the other. Just as there are
some Ukrainians living as Russians and vice versa, that does not grant that
right either. Further, there is the United Nations Charter that bar
invading another country.
The second and most scurrilous rational is that the Ukraine represents a
threat as it is a Nazi state with hostile intentions. Once again, there is
some historical truth in the lie. After the Soviets took control, the
needs of the state took precedence over the rights of the people. The need
to sell grain overseas in order to gain foreign hard currency to purchase
saw the deliberate man made famines of the 1920s and the horrors of the
Holodormo in the early 1930s. It is estimated that over six million
people, perhaps ten million, died of starvation imposed by Stalin. His
NKVD scoured Ukraine taking all food to support Russia and to sell overseas
for hard currency. Soviet rule of the Ukraine was a harsh and unforgiving
rule. It is no wonder that prior to Hitler’s Barbarossa many Ukrainians
despised Stalin and his NKVD and thought the Germans would liberate them
and they would have an independent state. The Nazi racial policies
prevented that. Nonetheless, some Ukrainians voluntarily or by force
joined the Germans in minor support roles. Just as Vlasov’s Russian army,
the Ukraine also formed an army to fight against the Germans in order to
defeat Stalin. They thought that after Stalin was no more, the victorious
Germans would allow formation of an independent Ukraine. At that time,
they were unaware of the German plans to repopulate Ukraine with Germans
and reduce the Ukrainians to serfs. Due to the racial policies of the
Nazis and distrust, neither the Russian or Ukrainian armies played active
military roles. Many scholars believe that Hitler’s failure to take
advantage of the anti-Stalin sentiment in the Ukraine and his appointment
of an anti-Ukrainian ruler in Kiev were two of his worst mistakes in the
war.
Nonetheless, the pure Russian hatred of the German fascists tainted the
relationship between the two entities after the war. No doubt the
formation of self described Nazi skinheads in Ukraine after independence
presented more fodder to Russian propaganda.
Thus arose Putin’s’s Denazification as a reason for the invasion. Many
captured Russian troops have spoken of the need to eliminate the threat of
the supposed Nazis in control of Ukraine. That, coupled with the constant
propaganda in years past and today fuels the barbarous behaviour of the
Russian ground forces. (It is noteworthy that Putin claims Russian and
Ukrainians are one people but his troops are carrying out genocide against
Ukrainians).
Of course, the potential of Ukraine joining NATO and NATO forces on its
border was a deep concern of the Russians. If Ukraine became a successful
democracy on Russia’s border, it would probably encourage Russians to
looked to a better way of government.
It is hard for us to imagine how the Russian people’s seem to have given
credence to Putin’s lies. However, we can look to an example of successful
propaganda in the last decades in America. Since the fairness doctrine was
removed from media, right wing media has become a staple in the United
States. Millions of Americans believe in endless conspiracies including
the Big Lie and Quanon. Russia has had over a century to condition its
population to believe in lies, from accepting purges to the need to invade
Ukraine with daily victories and minimal casualties. It has used fear to
rule. According to Russia, the liberation of the Ukraine has Ukraine
firing missiles at its own cities, hospitals, and killing its own citizens.
In fact the major reason seems to be nothing more than the delusional
thoughts of one man to regain the territory that was held by the Russian
Empire and the USSR. That appears to be his primary motive. NATO being on
his border is a valid concern, just as missiles in Turkey were a threat to
the USSR.
To be sure, the present situation may possibly lead to a nuclear war.
Nothing can prevent him from going nuclear. Combined forces of NATO
attacking by land, air, or sea represent too great a risk. Unlike
Khrushchev in 1962, Putin has no one in his close circle prepared to risk
his wrath by suggesting pulling back his forces. His power appears to be
absolute.
The only way I can see to stop this conflict is to remove Putin from power
from within.
Propaganda in the form of truth may be enough to stir the people into a
revolt as it did in 1905, 1917, and 1991. There are signs that to truth is
coming out. Yesterday the Russia TV schedules were hacked to present an
anti-war slogan. And Russian State TV home page presented facts about the
Ukraine invasion. Careful propaganda, not overt. I suspect that
replacement Russian troops will learn from those they are replacing,
perhaps enough to demoralize the newcomers who in turn will tell others.
Loosing money and assets will make the oligarchs anxious. It is impossible
to keep so many lies secret for long. I think the means to end this war
will arise within Russia.
Willow
