On Fri, Oct 22, 2021 at 2:10 PM Paul Krugman <nytdirect@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Doomsayers have been wrong before, but this time may be different.
Read online
<https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/qbg1FcXD5MIuX1lwpEbRBw~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjVZ_JP4QnAWh0dHBzOi8vbWVzc2FnaW5nLWN1c3RvbS1uZXdzbGV0dGVycy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS90ZW1wbGF0ZS9vYWt2Mj9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0xMTYmZW1jPWVkaXRfcGtfMjAyMTEwMjImaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NDM1ODgmbmw9cGF1bC1rcnVnbWFuJnByb2R1Y3RDb2RlPVBLJnJlZ2lfaWQ9NTg2MDExOTUmc2VnbWVudF9pZD03MjQzOSZ0ZT0xJnVyaT1ueXQlM0ElMkYlMkZuZXdzbGV0dGVyJTJGMjcwODhmMTgtZmExMy01MDVhLWE1NTktNDU1N2EzZTgyNGQ0JnVzZXJfaWQ9YTc4N2QyYWU5ZTE4YzI2MGZjZTg0OTljNWUwYTJlZmRXA255dEIKYXHJGnNhnh--HVIYd2FsaXR0bGVib290czlAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA>
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October 22, 2021
Sunset in Shanghai. Hector Retamal/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
By Paul Krugman
These are scary times in America, with one of our major parties careening
into authoritarianism and the other having difficulty moving forward thanks
to two uncooperative senators. Most of what I write, inevitably, focuses on
the troubled prospects for our republic. But everyone needs a break. So
today I want to talk about a happier topic: The risks of an economic crisis
in China.
OK, not exactly happier. But a change in subject, anyway.
Warnings about the Chinese economy aren’t new — but until now the
worriers, myself included, have been consistently wrong. Back in 2013 I
suggested
<https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/86TeJkjsHvgT7YduRjesKw~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjVZ_JP0TiaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAxMy8wNy8xOS9vcGluaW9uL2tydWdtYW4taGl0dGluZy1jaGluYXMtd2FsbC5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTExNiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9wa18yMDIxMTAyMiZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD00MzU4OCZubD1wYXVsLWtydWdtYW4mcmVnaV9pZD01ODYwMTE5NSZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTcyNDM5JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hNzg3ZDJhZTllMThjMjYwZmNlODQ5OWM1ZTBhMmVmZFcDbnl0Qgphcckac2GeH74dUhh3YWxpdHRsZWJvb3RzOUBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~>
that China’s growth model was becoming unsustainable, and that its economy
might be about to hit a Great Wall; obviously that didn’t happen.
Yet the more closely you look at how China has been able to keep its
economy going, the more problematic it looks. Basically, China has masked
underlying imbalances by creating an immense housing bubble. And it’s hard
to see how this ends well.
The background: The reforms introduced by Deng Xiaoping
<https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/uWjNv6pm2ug3lIaAR_Q7Bw~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjVZ_JP4QMAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lndhc2hpbmd0b25wb3N0LmNvbS9uZXdzL21vbmtleS1jYWdlL3dwLzIwMTgvMTIvMTkvNDAteWVhcnMtYWdvLWRlbmcteGlhb3BpbmctY2hhbmdlZC1jaGluYS1hbmQtdGhlLXdvcmxkLz9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0xMTYmZW1jPWVkaXRfcGtfMjAyMTEwMjImaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NDM1ODgmbmw9cGF1bC1rcnVnbWFuJnJlZ2lfaWQ9NTg2MDExOTUmc2VnbWVudF9pZD03MjQzOSZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YTc4N2QyYWU5ZTE4YzI2MGZjZTg0OTljNWUwYTJlZmRXA255dEIKYXHJGnNhnh--HVIYd2FsaXR0bGVib290czlAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA>
at the end of the 1970s created an economic miracle. China, which was
desperately poor, is now a middle-income nation, and given its size, that
makes it an economic superpower. But China’s economic growth has been
gradually slowing. Here’s a five-year moving average of the country’s
growth rate:
A slowing miracle.University of Groningen
There’s nothing mysterious about this slowdown. China was able to achieve
incredibly rapid growth through a combination of technological borrowing
from more advanced nations and a huge transfer of population from rural
areas to cities. As its technological sophistication grew and the reservoir
of rural labor shrank, growth was bound to slow. In addition, the one-child
policy gave China the kind of demography we usually associate with richer
countries: The working-age population peaked a few years ago and is now
shrinking:
The legacy of the one-child policy.FRED
In and of themselves, slower growth and a demographic transition needn’t
imply a crisis. But here’s the problem: Chinese spending patterns haven’t
adjusted to the needs of a slower-growth economy. In particular, the
country still has a very high savings rate, so to maintain full employment
it needs to invest an incredibly high share of G.D.P. — more than 40
percent
<https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/b53QTbm9kw5Njb-OhsvzdA~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjVZ_JP0TXaHR0cHM6Ly9kYXRhLndvcmxkYmFuay5vcmcvaW5kaWNhdG9yL05FLkdESS5UT1RMLlpTP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTExNiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9wa18yMDIxMTAyMiZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD00MzU4OCZsb2NhdGlvbnM9Q04mbmw9cGF1bC1rcnVnbWFuJnJlZ2lfaWQ9NTg2MDExOTUmc2VnbWVudF9pZD03MjQzOSZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YTc4N2QyYWU5ZTE4YzI2MGZjZTg0OTljNWUwYTJlZmRXA255dEIKYXHJGnNhnh--HVIYd2FsaXR0bGVib290czlAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA>
.
What drives investment? Normally, it depends a lot on how fast the economy
is growing: growth is what creates a demand for new factories, office
buildings, shopping malls and so on. So very high investment as a share of
G.D.P. is sustainable if the economy is growing at 9 or 10 percent a year.
If growth drops to 3 or 4 percent, however, the returns on investment drop.
That’s why China really needs to change its economic mix — to save less and
consume more.
But Chinese savings have stayed stubbornly high — and yes, excessive
saving is an economic problem.
A few years ago a study
<https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/xJcBl18Jb_FAooWZ5YTwRQ~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjVZ_JP4QIAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmltZi5vcmcvZW4vUHVibGljYXRpb25zL1dQL0lzc3Vlcy8yMDE4LzEyLzExL0NoaW5hcy1IaWdoLVNhdmluZ3MtRHJpdmVycy1Qcm9zcGVjdHMtYW5kLVBvbGljaWVzLTQ2NDM3P2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTExNiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9wa18yMDIxMTAyMiZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD00MzU4OCZubD1wYXVsLWtydWdtYW4mcmVnaV9pZD01ODYwMTE5NSZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTcyNDM5JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hNzg3ZDJhZTllMThjMjYwZmNlODQ5OWM1ZTBhMmVmZFcDbnl0Qgphcckac2GeH74dUhh3YWxpdHRsZWJvb3RzOUBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~>
from the International Monetary Fund tried to explain high Chinese savings.
It suggested that the biggest culprit was the same demographic transition
that is one cause of slowing growth: A declining birthrate means that
Chinese adults can’t expect their children to support them later in life,
so they save a lot to prepare for retirement. This demographic factor is
reinforced by the weakness of China’s social safety net: People can’t count
on the government to support them in their later years or to pay for health
care, so they feel the need to accumulate assets as a precaution.
Chinese policymakers know all this, but somehow haven’t been able to deal
with these underlying issues. Instead, they’ve kept the rate of investment
very high despite slowing growth — mainly by encouraging huge spending on
housing construction. A 2020 paper by Kenneth Rogoff and Yuanchen Yang
<https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/I-mMuU-I8pL5Cdry27AHTQ~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjVZ_JP0TZaHR0cHM6Ly9zY2hvbGFyLmhhcnZhcmQuZWR1L3JvZ29mZi9wdWJsaWNhdGlvbnMvcGVhay1jaGluYS1ob3VzaW5nP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTExNiZlbWM9ZWRpdF9wa18yMDIxMTAyMiZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD00MzU4OCZubD1wYXVsLWtydWdtYW4mcmVnaV9pZD01ODYwMTE5NSZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTcyNDM5JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hNzg3ZDJhZTllMThjMjYwZmNlODQ5OWM1ZTBhMmVmZFcDbnl0Qgphcckac2GeH74dUhh3YWxpdHRsZWJvb3RzOUBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAA~>
shows that Chinese investment in real estate now greatly exceeds U.S.
levels at the height of the 2000s housing bubble, both in dollar terms and
as a share of G.D.P.:
Now that’s a housing bubble.Kenneth Rogoff and Yuanchen Yang
Rogoff and Yang also show both that housing prices in China are extremely
high relative to incomes and that the real estate sector has become an
incredibly large share of China’s economy.
None of this looks sustainable, which is why many observers worry that the
debt problems of the giant property developer Evergrande
<https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/i6FaaDA1KE49cqS3xH2IYw~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjVZ_JP0TSaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vYXJ0aWNsZS9ldmVyZ3JhbmRlLWRlYnQtY3Jpc2lzLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MTE2JmVtYz1lZGl0X3BrXzIwMjExMDIyJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTQzNTg4Jm5sPXBhdWwta3J1Z21hbiZyZWdpX2lkPTU4NjAxMTk1JnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9NzI0MzkmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWE3ODdkMmFlOWUxOGMyNjBmY2U4NDk5YzVlMGEyZWZkVwNueXRCCmFxyRpzYZ4fvh1SGHdhbGl0dGxlYm9vdHM5QGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAA~~>
are just the leading edge of a broader economic crisis.
I’ve already pointed out that until now China has been able to defy the
doomsayers. So you might be tempted to give Chinese policymakers the
benefit of the doubt, and assume that they’ll manage to deal with this
situation. It turns out, however, that they haven’t really been dealing
with their economy’s underlying problems, they’ve been masking those
problems by creating a housing bubble that will ultimately magnify the
problem.
But why should the rest of the world care? China, which maintains controls
on the flow of capital into and out of the country, isn’t deeply integrated
with world financial markets. So the fall of Evergrande isn’t likely to
provoke a global financial crisis in the same way that the fall of Lehman
Brothers did in 2008. A Chinese slowdown would have some economic spillover
via reduced Chinese demand, especially for raw materials. But in purely
economic terms, the global economic risks from China’s problems don’t look
all that large.
China does, however, have an autocratic government — the kind of
government that in other times and places has tended to respond to internal
problems by looking for an external enemy. And China is also a superpower.
It’s not hard to tell scary stories
<https://nl.nytimes.com/f/a/wO80p0DYVK1fJaefyYYtCA~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRjVZ_JP4QVAWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmluZXRlY29ub21pY3Mub3JnL3BlcnNwZWN0aXZlcy9ibG9nL2ppbS1jaGFub3MtY2hpbmFzLWxldmVyYWdlZC1wcm9zcGVyaXR5LW1vZGVsLWlzLWRvb21lZC1hbmQtdGhhdHMtbm90LXRoZS13b3JzdD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0xMTYmZW1jPWVkaXRfcGtfMjAyMTEwMjImaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9NDM1ODgmbmw9cGF1bC1rcnVnbWFuJnJlZ2lfaWQ9NTg2MDExOTUmc2VnbWVudF9pZD03MjQzOSZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YTc4N2QyYWU5ZTE4YzI2MGZjZTg0OTljNWUwYTJlZmRXA255dEIKYXHJGnNhnh--HVIYd2FsaXR0bGVib290czlAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA>
about where all this might lead.
And with that, I return you to your regular worries about what’s going on
in the United States.
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