NB: An assortment of current items from The Daily Beast on the
situation with Putin, including the possibility of a Dr. Strangelove
scenario.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/vladimir-putins-own-allies-turn-on-him-as-ukraine-unleashes-hell-in-stolen-russian-tanks
Hot on the heels of embarrassing reports of Russian recruits fighting
each other and Moscow loyalists calling for Kremlin ministers to kill
themselves, it seems the rage against Vladimir Putin’s handling of his
invasion of Ukraine is now openly being conveyed to the man himself by
members of his own inner circle.
A report Friday—which is Putin’s 70th birthday—said that one of the
despot’s closest allies had openly challenged the disastrous way the war
was being conducted. The landmark challenge was even significant enough
to be included in U.S. President Joe Biden’s daily intelligence
briefing, according to anonymous officials cited by the Washington Post.
Although the individual who voiced the dissent was not identified, their
discontent was said to center around mistakes being made by those
directing the “special military operation” in Ukraine.
“Since the start of the occupation we have witnessed growing alarm from
a number of Putin’s inner circle,” a Western intelligence official told
the Post. “Our assessments suggest they are particularly exercised by
recent Russian losses, misguided direction and extensive military
shortcomings.”
Analysts of the war don’t have to look far to find examples of such
shortcomings, with embarrassing battlefield blunders clocking up at a
rate as alarming as the number of Russians currently seeking to dodge
Putin’s draft by fleeing the country.
As well as the embarrassing leak from U.S. officials, British
intelligence also gave Putin an unwelcome birthday surprise with a
mind-blowing report on the staggering number of captured Russian tanks
and armored vehicles currently being used by Ukraine.
“Repurposed captured Russian equipment now makes up a large proportion
of Ukraine’s military hardware,” the report from the U.K.’s defense
ministry said. “Ukraine has likely captured at least 440 Russian Main
Battle Tanks, and around 650 other armored vehicles since the invasion.
Over half of Ukraine’s currently fielded tank fleet potentially consists
of captured vehicles.”
“The failure of Russian crews to destroy intact equipment before
withdrawing or surrendering highlights their poor state of training and
low levels of battle discipline,” the report added.
The Kremlin’s latest ignominies come after a series of crushing military
setbacks in Ukraine, which has seen Moscow’s forces kicked out of key
areas in territory that Putin is claiming to formally control after
signing treaties to annex huge swathes of Ukraine into the Russian
Federation.
Having plunged his nation into chaos and sparking fears about nuclear
weapon use the world over, Putin is said to be working on his birthday
this year where he would have once spent the day with an old comrade
fishing in Siberia. It’s probably just as well, as you’d be hard pressed
to find many up for a hearty rendition of “For He’s a Jolly Good Fellow.”
AND
Russia
Russians Terrified by Putin’s Bunker Mentality as He Turns 70 With His
Finger on the Nuclear Button
GOING NUCLEAR
For the first time, Russians are starting to believe that their isolated
and out-of-touch leader really could launch a nuclear weapon.
Anna Nemtsova
Updated Oct. 07, 2022 4:51PM ET
Published Oct. 07, 2022 4:03AM ET
Photo Illustration by Luis G. Rendon/The Daily Beast/Getty
Only a handful of people know the exact location where President
Vladimir Putin is celebrating his 70th birthday in St. Petersburg on
Friday, but critics say he spends more and more of his time isolated
deep inside nuclear bunkers.
The Kremlin has announced that Putin will spend his birthday working.
Mired, as he is, in the biggest self-made disaster of his presidency,
that just raises more worrying questions about what kind of orders he’s
going to issue on his big day. Backed into a corner, what is Putin
considering next?
People who’ve known Putin for many years claim the Russian leader is
“nervous” and “tense” these days; online political groups speculate on
Telegram that Putin is planning “to use tactical nuclear weapons out of
a bunker, far from Moscow,” while Kremlinologists debate how to prevent
a looming doomsday scenario.
Putin himself has said he will respond to the grim daily news from
Ukraine—where his army is suffering defeat after defeat—with “all the
means at our disposal.” That, he added, “is not a bluff.”
In an alarming symbolic gesture, he promoted one of his closest and most
notorious allies on Wednesday, the leader of the Chechen republic,
Ramzan Kadyrov, who is now a general. His elevation came just a couple
of days after Kadyrov called for more drastic escalation in Ukraine,
including the declaration of martial law in Russia’s border areas and
“the use of low-yield nuclear weapons.”
AND
Russian Infighting Peaks With Calls for Suicide & Execution
Allison Quinn
Russians are growing increasingly worried about their leader’s state of
mind.
In his most recent public appearance, Putin’s eyes looked sunk and
foggy. He spoke to a group of teachers from a small office over Zoom.
The idea was to celebrate Wednesday’s “Teachers’ Day”—but Putin couldn’t
resist ranting about the so-called “neo-Nazis” in Ukraine.
“That part looked really insane,” 17-year-old student Vitaly Shatrov
from St. Petersburg, whose last name has been changed for privacy
reasons, told The Daily Beast. “Putin, who many compare to Hitler for
the violence against Ukrainian people, speaks with teachers from some
bunker about Nazis.”
Shatrov is so concerned about nuclear escalation that he is clinging to
the idea of peace talks as suggested by Pope Francis and Tesla boss Elon
Musk, who have been derided for suggesting Ukraine effectively accept
defeat. “I am afraid of a nuclear war. There are no politicians in the
world who could calm Putin down. Instead everybody mocks him, threatens
him, so he goes even more insane in the upside-down world that he’s
created.”
One thing is clear: Putin has a wide choice of bunkers to retreat to.
One of his favorite hideaways is in the Altai mountains. Any taxi driver
in the remote region of Ongudaysky near the border with Mongolia will
show you the way to “Putin’s bunker” or Altayskoye Podvorye. During the
pandemic, residents told The Daily Beast about the presidential
helicopter seen regularly in the air over the mountains. Locals talk of
a giant underground bunker where all Putin’s family members, and Gazprom
and Kremlin employees, could hide from radiation in case of a nuclear
attack—but like much of the president’s security apparatus, that has
never been officially confirmed.
Another famous hiding place is almost 1,000 miles away from Moscow in
the republic of Bashkortostan, in the southern Ural mountains. The
construction of this immense network of bunkers began under Boris
Yeltsin, but the project was frozen after the fall of the USSR. Western
spies have suggested the huge underground complex could house between
100,000 and 300,000 people; others suggested it was a nuclear command
post or a storage for secret weapons.
Putin’s whereabouts is often a subject of fascination in Russia. When he
holds his meetings on Zoom it is hard to figure out where he is, but
during the pandemic it became obvious that he has at least two identical
offices, one in Moscow and the other in his residence on the Black Sea,
in the city of Sochi.
Gennady Gudkov, an exiled former Russian parliamentarian, told The Daily
Beast that the president was taking precautions as the war in Ukraine
spirals out of control.
“Putin is going to hide in a bunker in case of a nuclear war,” he said.
“But he is not safe there either; he will be destroyed—that’s what Biden
should tell Putin clearly now.”
AND
Putin Crony Drafts Russian ‘Kill List’ of Western Officials
‘THERE WILL BE NO PEACE’
Julia Davis
Allies of Putin say the president’s nuclear threats are being
overinterpreted outside the country, but they blame the West for that.
“Russia will strike only in response to an attack. The decision-making
to use nuclear weapons is complicated, it involves many people and there
is no Kadyrov among them,” pro-Putin political analyst Yuriy Krupnov
told The Daily Beast.
He said the average Russian—even in elite circles—knows they would have
no protection if a nuclear conflict really did break out. “No bunker
will help Moscow, of course. Maybe just the leadership has proper shelters.”
Veteran human rights defender Valentina Melnikova, who has been helping
Russian families avoid the draft, said she was not so confident that the
world was safe from nuclear war. “I am sure our generals are capable of
bombing Kyiv and Washington with nuclear torpedoes and bombs. I say that
because I know the Russian military well—they will obey any of Putin’s
orders and there is hardly anything that could stop this disaster at
this point.”
Many more Russians are beginning to think the unthinkable.
Perceptions have changed so much over the last two decades. At the
beginning of Putin’s rule, few Russians would have believed a female
journalist like Anna Politkovskaya could be assassinated in the center
of Moscow. And yet it happened—on Putin’s birthday—in 2006.
People’s understanding of what Putin might do is changing faster and faster.
A year ago, the majority of the public did not believe the Kremlin would
launch a full-scale assault on a neighboring country, such as Ukraine.
Even then, they were certain there would be no mass-mobilization—but,
again, it is happening, right now.
Russians were always afraid of nuclear war but most of them never
imagined that their own motherland would start one.
Now, they are not so sure.
