[csusbpeace] Barack Obama gets a midterm do-over to help boost Democrats
- From: "raccoon" <dmarc-noreply@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> ("bigraccoon1")
- To: "CSUSBPEACE@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <CSUSBPEACE@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Fri, 28 Oct 2022 06:47:06 -0700
https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-biden-inflation-wisconsin-pennsylvania-ce2cf06a89f0e0b3c1a4a598c08c665d?user_email=c74f948ab9752ff82e2ca44cab7f39a8ec63f899addc078246b23fb1af5474c3&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Oct28_MorningWire&utm_content=A&utm_term=Morning%20Wire%20Subscribers
Barack Obama gets a midterm do-over to help boost Democrats
ATLANTA (AP) — Barack Obama is trying to do something he couldn’t during two
terms as president: help Democrats succeed in national midterm elections
<https://apnews.com/hub/2022-midterm-elections> when they already hold the
White House.
Of course, Obama is more popular than he was back then, and now it’s
President Joe Biden, his former vice president, who faces the prospects of a
November rebuke
<https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-biden-government-and-politics-3b524cfadbe03593851d5f873b5c1fc1>.
Obama begins a hopscotch across battleground states Friday in Georgia, and he
will travel Saturday to Michigan and Wisconsin, followed by stops next week
in Nevada and Pennsylvania.
The itinerary, which includes rallies with Democratic candidates for federal
and state offices, comes as Biden and Democrats try to stave off a strong
Republican push
<https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-inflation-biden-new-york-0ce9df94ad312462eecb793f54c2bbbd>
to upend Democrats’ narrow majorities in the House and Senate and claim key
governorships ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
With Biden’s job approval ratings in the low 40s
<https://apnews.com/article/inflation-biden-health-economy-only-on-ap-65540cfa0f493ca94afd1fefd69df33e>
amid sustained inflation, he’s an albatross for Democrats like Sens. Raphael
Warnock of Georgia and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada. But party
strategists see Obama as having extensive reach even in a time of
hyperpartisanship and economic uncertainty.
“Obama occupies a rare place in our politics today,” said David Axelrod, who
helped shape Obama’s campaigns from his days in the Illinois state Senate
through two presidential elections. “He obviously has great appeal to
Democrats. But he’s also well-liked by independent voters.”
Neither Biden nor former President Donald Trump can claim that, Axelrod and
others noted, even as both men also ratchet up their campaigning ahead of the
Nov. 8 elections.
“Barack Obama is the best messenger we’ve got in our party, and he’s the most
popular political figure in the country in either party,” said Bakari
Sellers, a South Carolina Democrat and prominent political commentator.
Obama left office in January 2017 with a 59% approval rating, and Gallup
measured his post-presidential approval at 63% the following year, the last
time the organization surveyed former presidents. That’s considerably higher
than his ratings in 2010, when Democrats lost control of the House in a
midterm election that Obama called a “shellacking.” In his second midterm
election four years later, the GOP regained control of the Senate.
Swimming against those historical tides, Biden traveled Thursday to Syracuse,
New York, for a rare appearance in a competitive congressional district.
After months of Republican attacks over inflation, he offered a closing
economic argument
<https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-inflation-biden-new-york-0ce9df94ad312462eecb793f54c2bbbd>
buoyed somewhat by news of 2.6% GDP growth
<https://apnews.com/article/inflation-europe-business-economy-gross-domestic-product-e1a95c0c9e7b046ed88ad2e9e3150dce>
in the third quarter after two previous quarters of retraction.
“Democrats are building a better America for everyone with an economy ...
where everyone does well,” Biden said.
Yet Lis Smith, a Democratic strategist, said Obama is better positioned to
take that same argument to Americans who haven’t decided whom to vote for or
whether to vote at all.
“If it’s just a straight-up referendum on Democrats and the economy, then
we’re screwed,” Smith said, acknowledging that no incumbent party wants to
run amid sustained inflation. “But you have to make the election a choice
between the two parties, crystallize the differences.”
Obama, she said, did that in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections “by
winning over a lot of working-class white voters and others we don’t always
think about as part of the ‘Obama coalition.’”
He couldn’t replicate it in midterms, but he’s not the president this time.
Smith and Axelrod said that means Obama can more deftly position himself
above the fray to defend Democratic accomplishments, from the specifics of
the Inflation Reduction Act
<https://apnews.com/article/biden-signs-climate-health-bill-9a7f349fa7b07387d20ad603f2ff4875>
to the COVID-19 pandemic relief package
<https://apnews.com/article/what-is-inside-covid-19-bill-relief-package-52fa93ac75d38eae4cd3dbb6402e7eba>
that many Democrats have avoided touting because Republicans blame it for
inflation. Smith said Obama can remind voters of years of Republican attacks
on his 2010 health care law that now seems to be a permanent and generally
accepted part
<https://apnews.com/article/biden-health-business-donald-trump-john-mccain-2cbb6353329fcb541b4c8399a5981cf5>
of the U.S. health insurance market.
Beyond those policy arguments, Sellers noted that Obama, as the first Black
president, “connects especially with Black and brown voters,” a bond
reflected in the opening days of his itinerary.
In Atlanta, he’ll be on stage with Warnock, the first Black U.S. senator in
Georgia history, and Stacey Abrams, who’s vying to become the first Black
female governor in American history. Warnock faces a stiff challenge from
Republican nominee Herschel Walker, who is also Black. Abrams is trying to
unseat Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, who narrowly defeated her four years ago.
In Michigan, Obama will campaign in Detroit with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who
is being challenged by Republican Tudor Dixon, and in Wisconsin he’ll be in
Milwaukee with Senate candidate Mandela Barnes, who is trying to oust
Republican Sen. Ron Johnson. Each city is where the state’s Black population
is most concentrated. Obama’s Pennsylvania swing will include Philadelphia,
another city where Democrats must get a strong turnout from Black voters to
win competitive races for Senate and governor.
With the Senate now split 50-50 between the two major parties and Vice
President Kamala Harris giving Democrats the deciding vote, any Senate
contest could end up deciding which party controls the chamber for the next
two years. Among the tightest Senate battlegrounds, Georgia, Wisconsin and
Pennsylvania are three where Black turnout could be most critical to
Democratic fortunes.
Plans have been in the works for Obama and Biden to campaign together in
Pennsylvania, though neither the White House nor Obama’s office has confirmed
details.
A wider embrace for Obama is a turnabout from his two midterm elections. But
it’s at least partly a rite of passage for former presidents. “Most of them —
maybe not President Trump, but most of them — are viewed more favorably after
they leave office,” Axelrod said.
Notably, during Obama’s presidency, former President Bill Clinton was the
in-demand surrogate heavyweight, especially for moderates trying to survive
Republican surges in 2010 and 2014. Clinton was a pivotal voice for Obama’s
reelection effort in 2012, with Obama dubbing him the “secretary of
explaining stuff” after Clinton’s sweeping endorsement address at the
Democratic convention as Obama was locked in a tight contest with Republican
Mitt Romney.
“Bill Clinton was the MVP for us in 2012,” Axelrod said.
Now, Clinton is two decades removed from the White House, and the #MeToo
movement has forced some people to reevaluate his history of sexual
misconduct allegations.
“It’s always been dicey to bring in national Democrats in a midterm, and it
doesn’t help when they bring a lot of baggage,” Smith said of Clinton.
Axelrod was more circumspect, saying simply, “It’s a different time.”
But he said Obama and Clinton have a similar approach.
“What Clinton and Obama share is a kind of unique ability to colloquialize
complicated political arguments of the time, just talk in common-sense
terms,” Axelrod said. “They’re storytellers. I think you’ll see that again
when he’s out there.”
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