see url: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0001xs9
A little bit of history does no one any harm...It isn't the first time
that the British government, parliament, state, political parties and
the people have been split over "Free" Trade. One learns from a study
of history to ignore its lessons and make the same mistakes again. As
Karl Marx said, in regard to the Paris Commune. "History goes in
circles, the first time it is a drama, the second it is a farce".
At last politics in the UK is starting to get more interesting. The
recent referendum decision on UK Membership of the EU is now coming home
to roost, showing up the splits and divisions regarding UK membership of
the European Union. It has taken a long time for Parliament to start
exerting control over the Executive, the UK government, and, as usual
with all negotiations, the sh*t hits the fan when one gets nearer to
decision making time. Now all sorts of Parliamentary Procedures are
being dug up out of the woodpile and used to restrict the government.
The main political parties are divided amongst themselves, there is no
clear majority for remain or Brexit, some say that the present deal is
the only deal, others say that the UK should leave with no deal and rely
on World Trade Rules. There is no right and left, no Socialist versus
Capitalist economic theories or position which provides an answer. Some
M.P.s are calling for another referendum, others, want a new deal,
others want to remain as we were, others still want some other kind of
economic and political relationship with the EU. There are some who want
a general election. However, time presses, and with the government
stalling and the people becoming not only bored but more apprehensive
about the outcome, the political temperature is rising. One of the
problems is that referendums, general elections or trying to get a new
deal are all fraught with difficulties, A simple one being, setting a
question in a new referendum, or what kind of questions, and what
happens if there is more than one question, or a reversal of the
decision by a small majority? What happens if a referendum is granted?
Scotland, which is overwhelmingly supporting membership of the EU has
been refused a new referendum, that situation would become untenable if
there is another referendum on Brexit; there is no guarantee either that
the Remainers or the Brexiteers would win a referendum. Organising a
general election would be extremely difficult, as there are
constitutional implications, and they are not fought on one topic only,
and the outcome is difficult to predict because within the main parties
there are many splits and divisions. Even within the leadership of the
two main parties, one sees advocates of Brexit arguing for Remaining,
and vice versa.
Like the rest of the UK, the referendum on Brexit has split and divided
people, families, nations, political parties, interest groups,
businesses as well as Parliament and the government. All sorts of
tactics and strategies have been used to convince the people about
whether we should remain or leave the EU. The referendum result was a
shock not only to myself, but who am I, but also, to the UK
establishment. Now ancient precendence in Parliament is coming to the
fore, as a very split and divided nation tries to find unity in
different outcomes, and, as time passes, the government has become
stalled and stuck with one option for Brexit, and is sitting on it like
a pidgeon brooding on an egg, forcing Parliament to take action. It
really is a very difficult question to solve. The EU presents an
immovable object as far as negotiations are concerned, and is sitting
back, watching. They don't want the UK to leave of course, but they are
not prepared to have them stay with priveleges which are not open to the
other nations of the EU on trade, immigration, customs, tariffs, and so
on. Whilst the UK tries to negotiate a deal which will allow access to
the EU without trade tariffs, continued free movement of capital and
labour, and common tariffs, and where the UK controls immigration. The
option of a World Free Trade alternative is being discussed along with
deals which other countries outside of the EU have negotiated, including
Scandinavia and Iceland, and Canada.
The problem of a border between Northern Ireland and Eire is compounded
by the Belfast Agreement, which helped stop the violence between
Protestants and Catholics and all the bombing, which assures both
countries that there shall be no border. Up till now, such a border,
and it really is a tortuous border, didn't really matter, but if the UK
leaves, then there has to be some kind of border, or border control, and
neither the Northern Irish, or Eire are prepared to build a wall,
between the two soveriegn countries, because it would make trade between
them very inconvenient and expensive.
Huge scare stories about the fight of capital from London and the
blocking of the main Trunk Roads across the UK from the Eire and
Northern Irish Ports, to Dover and then on to Calais and the other
Channel ports, bring visions of 500,000 lorries per year going through
enhanced border checks if the UK leaves the EU. A "no deal" Brexit
looms, as it looks increasingly like the deal negotiated by the UK
government and the bureacrats of the EU will not get through Parliament.
Sit back and enjoy the show, enjoy the experience, learn about politics
from real politics and not the fancy ideas of some philosopher or
politician or another. Learn about economics not from the economists
and their clever, logical theories, but from the randomness and
uncontrollable forces at play which prevents any painless answer. There
are always winners and losers in these matters, some lose in the short
term some lose in the long term...and vikki verki. The struggle goes on
and ideas which lasted for centuries become untenable and just vanish
out the window into the dustbin of history, whilst others spring up
anew, and the new Gods of the scientific method take over from the old
Gods of Marx, Keynsian and our present Capitalist theory of monetarism.
As I keep saying to my children and grandchildren, and as my mother and
father used to say to me, "We have survived for hundreds of years
outside of the European Union, gone through an Empire and we are still
surviving, so, leave it in the lap of the Gods, because there is nothing
else one can do when those hidden forces of the market place come out
into the open and determine the outcomes, whether we went it or not"
Enjoy the pantomime, at least the presentation is free to the audience,
though the outcome might be good or bad for some of us.
A Happy New Year to you all, and don't forget Burn's Nicht on 21st
January, get along to your local Burns's Supper and enjoy the whisky and
haggis...:-)
ATB
Dougie.
