----- Forwarded Message ----- From: Yuji Tamura <ernad@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>To:
"nep-mig@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx" <nep-mig@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent: Wednesday, June 26,
2019, 08:14:26 AM GMT-5Subject: [nep-mig] 2019-06-17, fourteen papers
|
| nep-mig | New Economics Papers |
| on Economics of Human Migration |
| Issue of 2019‒06‒17
fourteen papers chosen by
Yuji Tamura
La Trobe University
| |
- Assessing the macroeconomic impact of Brexit through tradeand migration
channels ByAntoineBerthou;SophieHaincourt;Marie-Elisabeth de la
Serve;ÁngelEstrada;MoritzA. Roth;Alexander Kadow
- An estimation of the effects of Brexit on trade andmigration
ByRodolfoCampos;JacopoTimini
- Foreign vs. U.S. Graduate Degrees: The Impact on EarningsAssimilation and
Return Migration for the Foreign Born ByRandallAkee;MaggieR. Jones
- Mentoring labor market integration of migrants: Policyinsights from a
survey of mentoring theory and practice ByLisaBagnoli;AntonioEstache
- The interplay between migrants and natives as a determinantof migrants'
assimilation: A coevolutionary approach ByJakubBielawski;MarcinJakubek
- Immigrant Communities and Knowledge Spillovers:Danish-Americans and the
Development of the Dairy Industry in the UnitedStates ByNina
Boberg-Fazlić;PaulSharp
- Measuring and assessing talent attractiveness in OECDcountries
ByMicheleTuccio
- Prospects of Philippine Migration ByEdita A.Tan
- IMMIGRATION AND DEMOGRAPHICS: CAN HIGH IMMIGRANT FERTILITYEXPLAIN VOTER
SUPPORT FOR IMMIGRATION? ByBohn,Henning;Lopez-Velasco, Armando R
- EU Faces a Tough Demographic Reckoning ByRichard Grieveson;Sandra M.
Leitner;RobertStehrer
- Institutionalist Review and Analysis of Immigration Effectson U.S. Jobs
Markets By:Andrew Minster;Danielle Kavanagh-Smith;Lara-Zuzan Golesorkhi
- Economic development and the evolution of internalmigration. Moving in
steps, returnees, and gender differences ByCattaneo, Andrea;Robinson, Sherman
- Diaspora growth and aggregate remittances : an inverted-Urelationship ?
ByBernardPoirine;VincentDropsy
- Stranded! How Rising Inequality Suppressed US Migration andHurt Those Left
Behind ByTamimBayoumi;JelleBarkema
- Assessing themacroeconomic impact of Brexit through trade and migration
channels
| By: | AntoineBerthou (Banque de France);SophieHaincourt (Banque de
France);Marie-Elisabeth de la Serve (Banque de France);ÁngelEstrada (Banco de
España);MoritzA. Roth (Banco de España);Alexander Kadow (Deutsche Bundesbank) |
| Abstract: | This joint work by the Bundesbank, the Banque de France
and the Banco deEspaña highlights some of the numerous channels through which
Brexit willaffect the UK economy and its economic partners. In particular, it
focuses ontrade and migration channels, adding a more general assessment of
exiting theEU through the use of a gravity model. The trade cannel alone may
cut UK GDPby 2% over the medium term if the UK reverts to WTO rules, while a
moregeneral gravity model would point to UK GDP falling by almost 6% compared
tobaseline. According to our analysis, the ‘cost of non-Europe’ (such
asoriginally stated by Cecchini’s seminal work in 1988) lies therefore
between2% and 6% in terms of real GDP losses for the UK. With the shock being
largelyasymmetric, the EA remains relatively unscathed by the UK’s exit, with
GDPless than 1% lower than baseline by 2023. The study also shows that
resultsare sensitive to the envisaged policy response. In general, monetary
andfiscal policies may act to cushion a Brexit-related shock; however,
thepotency of the policy response depends on the underlying source of theshock.
|
| Keywords: | Brexit, NiGEM, trade, tariffs, non-tariff trade
barriers, migration,scenario analysis |
| JEL: | F15 F42F53 |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:opaper:1911&r=mig ;|
- An estimation of theeffects of Brexit on trade and migration
| By: | RodolfoCampos (Banco de España);JacopoTimini (Banco de España)
|
| Abstract: | This paper uses a gravity model approach to estimate the
effects of Brexitintwo dimensions: trade in goods and migration. We simulate
two scenarios: 1) noagreement with reversión to WTO rules and no special
treatment for migrants;2) signature of a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA).
According to ourresults, Brexit may have large negative effects on trade and
migration flowsbetween the EU and the UK. In the WTO scenario, trade flows are
predicted todrop by 30% and migration by close to 25%. If the UK and the EU
sign anFTA-like agreement (which does not include free mobility of labour),
thenegative effects on trade are lessened although there is no
significantdifference in terms of migration with respect to the WTO scenario. |
| Keywords: | international trade, migration, Brexit, gravity models,
United Kingdom,European Union |
| JEL: | F13 F14F17 F22 |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:opaper:1912&r=mig ;|
- Foreign vs. U.S.Graduate Degrees: The Impact on Earnings Assimilation and
Return Migration forthe Foreign Born
| By: | RandallAkee;MaggieR. Jones |
| Abstract: | Using a novel panel data set of recent immigrants to the
U.S., we identifyreturn migration rates and earnings trajectories of two
immigrant groups:those with foreign graduate degrees and those with a U.S.
graduate degree. Wefocus on immigrants (of both genders) to the U.S. who arrive
in the same entrycohort and from the same country of birth over the period
2005-2015. InCensus-IRS administrative data, we ?nd that downward earnings
trajectories arepredictive of return migration for immigrants with degrees
acquired abroad.Meanwhile, immigrants with U.S.-acquired graduate degrees
experience mainlyupward earnings mobility. |
| Keywords: | Post-Secondary Education, Immigration, Human Capital,
Wage Growth, PanelData. |
| JEL: | J31 F22J61 J15 |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:19-17&r=mig ;|
- Mentoring labormarket integration of migrants: Policy insights from a
survey of mentoringtheory and practice
| By: | LisaBagnoli;AntonioEstache |
| Abstract: | The paper synthetizes the academic research on mentoring
and discusses itsrelevance for the design of labor market integration policies
for migrants.The review covers several research fields, including education,
management,organizational theory, psychology and economics. From each field, we
discussthe outcomes that are potentially relevant to the design of mentoring as
aninstrument of job search assistance. We also review these results in terms
oftheir contribution to the identification of outcome and control variables
thatshould be accounted for in the evaluations of mentoring programs. In doing
so,the paper shows that both specific features of the programs as well as
thegeneral context, including human, institutional, financing and
politicalconstraints, are relevant in limiting or enabling the effectiveness
ofmentoring as part of the overall design of migration policies. |
| Keywords: | mentoring labor, labor market, intergration of migrants
policy |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/288197&r=mig ;|
- The interplaybetween migrants and natives as a determinant of migrants'
assimilation: Acoevolutionary approach
| By: | JakubBielawski;MarcinJakubek |
| Abstract: | We study the migrants' assimilation, which we
conceptualize as forming humancapital productive on the labor market of a
developed host country, and welink the observed frequent lack of assimilation
with the relative deprivationthat the migrants start to feel when they move in
social space towards thenatives. In turn, we presume that the native population
is heterogenous andconsists of high-skill and low-skill workers. The presence
of assimilatedmigrants might shape the comparison group of the natives,
influencing therelative deprivation of the low-skill workers and, in
consequence, the choiceto form human capital and become highly skilled. To
analyse this interrelationbetween assimilation choices of migrants and skill
formation of natives, weconstruct a coevolutionary model of the
open-to-migration economy. Showingthat the economy might end up in a
non-assimilation equilibrium, we discusswelfare consequences of an assimilation
policy funded from tax levied on thenative population. We identify conditions
under which such costly policy canbring the migrants to assimilation and at the
same time increase the welfareof the natives, even though the incomes of the
former take a beating. |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1906.02657&r=mig ;|
- Immigrant Communitiesand Knowledge Spillovers: Danish-Americans and the
Development of the DairyIndustry in the United States
| By: | Nina Boberg-Fazlić (University of Southern Denmark);PaulSharp
(University of Southern Denmark) |
| Abstract: | Despite the growing literature on the impact of
immigration, little is knownabout the role existing migrant settlements can
play for knowledgetransmission. We present a case which can illustrate this
important mechanismand hypothesize that nineteenth century Danish-American
communities helpedspread knowledge on modern dairying to rural America. From
around 1880,Denmark developed rapidly and by 1890 it was a world-leading dairy
producer.Using a difference-in-differences strategy, and data taken from the US
censusand Danish emigration archives, we find that counties with more Danes in
1880subsequently both specialized in dairying and used more modernpractices. |
| Keywords: | Dairying, immigration, knowledge spillovers, technology |
| JEL: | F22 J61 N11 N31 N51 O33 Q16 |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0155&r=mig ;|
- Measuring andassessing talent attractiveness in OECD countries
| By: | MicheleTuccio |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a new set of indicators aimed at
benchmarking how OECDcountries fare in attracting talented migrants. Three
different profiles oftalent are considered: workers with graduate (master or
doctorate) degrees,entrepreneurs, and university students. After providing a
definition of thenotion of talent attractiveness, this paper develops a
conceptual frameworkfor the study of the phenomenon, and discusses the
variables used to constructthe composite indicators. Sensitivity analysis is
performed in order to makesure the indicators are robust to several statistical
checks. Finally, thepaper documents the attractiveness of OECD countries to the
different profilesof talented migrants. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurs, High-skilled Workers, Immigrants,
Students, Talent |
| JEL: | F22 J61O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2019–05–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaab:229-en&r=mig ;|
- Prospects ofPhilippine Migration
| By: | Edita A.Tan (School of Economics, University of the
Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | The paper briefly surveys recent migration policies in
major destinations ofFilipino migrants and tries to see their effect on
migration flows in the pasttwo decades. Most Western OECD economies have
heightened their restrictiveimmigration programs that covered not only those
relating to workers but alsothose for family unification. Their admission for
employment is restricted tothe highly skilled/highly educated labor. Despite
the tightening of policy,emigration to Western OECD increased in the past three
decades. Emigration tothe US has been declining but emigration to other
countries, though relativelysmall, rose. Saudi Arabia, the largest employer of
foreign workers in the Gulfadopted the Nitaqat policy of imposing higher
national to foreign labor ratioin the private sector. This may explain the drop
in the flow of labor to theGCC in 2015 and 2016. The drop could be a temporary
fluctuation as the statecould not easily develop sufficient number of skilled
and disciplined citizensto replace foreign labor. The GCC states’ heavy
dependence on foreign labor isexpected to continue. The skill composition of
foreign workers may changedepending on their future economic and social
development. |
| Keywords: | migration; Philippines |
| JEL: | J08 J15J61 |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:201902&r=mig ;|
- IMMIGRATION ANDDEMOGRAPHICS: CAN HIGH IMMIGRANT FERTILITY EXPLAIN VOTER
SUPPORT FORIMMIGRATION?
| By: | Bohn,Henning;Lopez-Velasco, Armando R |
| Abstract: | First generation immigrants to the United States have
higher fertility ratesthan natives. This paper analyzes to what extent this
factor providespolitical support for immigration, using an overlapping
generation model withproduction and capital accumulation. In this setting,
immigration represents adynamic trade-off for native workers as more immigrants
decrease current wagesbut increase the future return on their savings. We find
that immigrantfertility has surprisingly strong effects on voter incentives,
especially whenthere is persistence in the political process. If fertility
rates aresufficiently high, native workers support immigration. Persistence,
either dueto inertia induced by frictions in the legal system or through
expectationallinkages, significantly magnifies the effects. Entry of immigrants
with highfertility has redistributive impacts across generations similar
topay-as-you-go social security: initial generations are net winners,
whereaslater generations are net losers. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Political Economy Model, Overlapping
Generations, ImmigrantFertility Rates, Intergenerational Redistribution,
Economic Theory,Economics |
| Date: | 2019–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:ucsbrw:qt9dk2h7cv&r=mig ;|
- EU Faces a ToughDemographic Reckoning
| By: | Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for
InternationalEconomic Studies, wiiw);Sandra M. Leitner (The Vienna Institute
for International EconomicStudies, wiiw);RobertStehrer (The Vienna Institute
for International Economic Studies,wiiw) |
| Abstract: | By 2030, labour demand could be equal to labour supply
in most of the EU,creating significant challenges for policy-makers and firms.
The ‘tippingpoint’ at which labour demand will become equal to labour supply in
the EU –that is, when labour will become a constraint on economic growth – is
nowimminent. If current trends continue, most EU countries will hit this
‘tippingpoint’ during the next decade, many by 2025. Vacancy rates and surveys
ofemployers find that firms in some sectors are already facing severe
labourconstraints on production. Most of CEE will be hit first, not least
becausethey are still losing so many workers to Western Europe. For Western
Europe,however, the situation will also become difficult soon, especially
forGermany. This is an enormous challenge for policy-makers, and will become
evenmore so in the future. Policy options to counter demographic trends can
besplit into four main areas higher productivity, immigration, activity
rates,or fertility. However, none is a silver bullet. Even if all of these
policiesare pursued successfully and in combination, they are unlikely
tofundamentally alter the picture. The implications of this demographic
declinedo not have to be all negative. Combined with intelligent upgrading
ofinfrastructure and investment in productivity-enhancing improvements
inindustry, there is no reason that these population trends cannot
gohand-in-hand with increases in per capita GDP and living standards. Much
canbe learned from Japan in this regard. The politics of the future in the EU
islikely to be defined by generational questions, and
potentiallyinter-generational conflict. Policy discussions are likely to centre
ever moreon immigration, how to fund old-age and child care, how to extend
workinglives, automation, and the problematic issue of financial incentives
toincrease fertility rates. |
| Keywords: | demographics, migration, emigration, immigration,
automation |
| JEL: | F22 J01 J08 J11 J21 J23 J61 |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:30&r=mig ;|
- InstitutionalistReview and Analysis of Immigration Effects on U.S. Jobs
Markets
| By: | :Andrew Minster;Danielle Kavanagh-Smith;Lara-Zuzan Golesorkhi
(Schwartz Center for Economic PolicyAnalysis (SCEPA)) |
| Abstract: | This paper recognizes additional complicating factors,
like social policyandemployers' power to shape job prospects, to more
accurately characterize therelationship between the labor market and migration.
The authors discuss theneed to improve the status of unions, create
state-funded jobs guarantees, andreform retirement policy to support all
workers in the face of growingemployer influence. |
| Keywords: | immigration, job markets, undocumented, compensation,
immigration economics,labor |
| JEL: | J6 J3 J5J7 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:epa:cepawp:2018-01&r=mig ;|
- Economic developmentand the evolution of internal migration. Moving in
steps, returnees, and genderdifferences
| By: | Cattaneo, Andrea;Robinson, Sherman |
| Abstract: | This paper sheds new light on internal migration
processes by estimatingmigration flows for 31 countries, focusing on step
migration and on returnmigration back to rural areas from urban areas. The
approach is to estimatethe shares of the population (by gender) that move or
stay in rural and urbanareas over three periods (childhood and two forward
periods). Using data fromDemographic and Health Surveys (DHS), the estimation
was done with aninformation-theoretic procedure using maximum-entropy
econometrics to estimatemigration frequencies by population groups. Sizeable
urban to rural migrationflows are found, with rural returnees often
contributing substantially tourban-to-rural flows. This phenomenon is more
pronounced in countries inrelatively early phases of development, and among
male migrants. The analysisalso confirms anecdotal evidence that migrants move
in several steps and thatinternal migration patterns vary considerably
according to gender; however, incountries that are further along the path of
structural transformation, andparticularly urbanization, the magnitude of
migration flows appears to besimilar across genders. |
| Keywords: | Labor and Human Capital, Community/Rural/Urban
Development |
| Date: | 2019–02–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:faoaes:288948&r=mig ;|
- Diaspora growthand aggregate remittances : an inverted-U relationship ?
| By: | BernardPoirine (GDI - Gouvernance et développement insulaire -
UPF - Universitéde la Polynésie Française);VincentDropsy (GDI - Gouvernance et
développement insulaire - UPF - Université dela Polynésie Française) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a model in which remittances stem
from a decision madejointly by a family coalition of multiple migrants and
non-migrants, allowingtwo alternative interpretations: migrants' altruism or
bargaining power. Themodel predicts that aggregate remittances first increase,
reach a maximum, andthen decrease as the emigration ratio
(migrants/non-migrants) increases. Analternative model of loan repayment
arrangement between each migrant and herparents, predicts that aggregate
remittances grow monotonously with theemigration ratio. Testing both
predictions on a macroeconomic bilateraldataset we find evidence in favour of
the first model and an inverted-Urelationship between aggregate remittances and
the emigration ratio, with amaximum reached at a value of 0.5. Since many small
"MIRAB" island nations areclose to or even above this threshold value, this
finding is of highlyrelevant for them since they may experience declining
aggregate remittances asthe diaspora grows further. |
| Keywords: | International migration,Remittances,Diaspora,Gravity
model |
| Date: | 2018–09–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02133273&r=mig ;|
- Stranded! How RisingInequality Suppressed US Migration and Hurt Those Left
Behind
| By: | TamimBayoumi;JelleBarkema |
| Abstract: | Using bilateral data on migration across US metro areas,
we find strongevidence that increasing house price and income inequality has
reduced longdistance migration, the type most linked to jobs. For those
migrating uphill,from a less to a more prosperous location, lower mobility is
driven byincreasing house price inequlity, as the disincentives from higher
houseprices dominate the incentives from higher earnings. By contrast,
increasingincome inequality drives the fall in downhill migration as the
disincentivesfrom lower earnings dominate the incentives from lower house
prices. The modelunderlines the plight of those trapped in decaying metro
areas—those “leftbehind”. |
| Date: | 2019–06–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:19/122&r=mig ;|
This nep-mig issue is ©2019 by Yuji Tamura. It is providedas is without any
express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed inwhole or in part
for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include thisnotice.General
information on the NEP project can befound at http://nep.repec.org. For ;
comments please writeto the director of NEP, Marco Novarese
at<director@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise yourmail may be
rejected.NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and
Financeof Massey Universityin New Zealand. Use
http://lists.repec.org/mailman/options/nep-migto sign ;
off._______________________________________________
nep-mig mailing list
nep-mig@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
http://lists.repec.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/nep-mig
