[colombiamigra] Fw: Press Release: Six Take-Aways from the Census Bureau's Voting Report
- From: william mejia <wmejia8a@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: "colombiamigra@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <colombiamigra@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Wed, 8 May 2013 22:39:10 -0700 (PDT)
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From: Pew Hispanic Center <info@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: wmejia8a@xxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, May 9, 2013 12:10 AM
Subject: Press Release: Six Take-Aways from the Census Bureau's Voting Report
Press Release May 8, 2013 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Molly Rohalmrohal@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
202-419-4372
Six Take-Aways from
the Census Bureau's Voting Report
Today's report from the Census Bureauon the diversifying American electorate in
2012 confirms an historic turnout milestone first noted last December by the
Pew Research Center, but undercuts a number of other widely-reported
demographic analyses of last year's presidential vote.
Here are the six most important take-aways from Census Bureau data:
1. For the first time ever, the black voter turnout rate in a
presidential election exceeded the white voter turnout rate--66.2% versus
64.1%. While the presence of Barack Obama on the ballot in 2008 and 2012 no
doubt contributed to the narrowing and reversal of what had been a longstanding
black-white turnout gap, the rise in the black turnout rate pre-dates his
candidacies.
2. Hispanics continue to punch below their weight.Much was made right
after the November election about the clout of the Hispanic vote (by, among
others, the Pew Research Center). But the new Census Bureau data show that
Hispanics' turnout rate--just 48%--was far below that of whites (64.1%) or
blacks (66.2%). It also fell nearly two percentage points below the Hispanic
turnout rate in 2008, which was 49.9%. Because of population growth, the number
of Latinos who voted for president increased by about 1.4 million from 2008 to
2012, to a record 11.2 million, but the number of Latinos who were eligible
but chose not to vote increased even more--by 2.3 million--from 9.8 million in
2008 to 12.1 million in 2012.
3. Youth voter turnout rates also declinedfrom 2008 to 2012, contrary
to initial reports based on the national Election Day exit polls, which had
shown the youth voter turnout rate holding steady.According to the Census
Bureau report, the turnout rate among 18- to 24-year-olds fell to 41.2% in 2012
from 48.5% in 2008. (Most of the post-election analysisof the youth vote
focused on 18- to 29-year-olds and showed no change in voter turnout rates
between 2008 and 2012; the Census Bureau report only provides an analysis for
those ages 18 to 24 years.) The turnout rates of adults ages 65 and older
rose--to 71.9% in 2012 from 70.3% in 2008, according to the Census Bureau
report.
4. Despite the low turnout rates for Hispanics, their high share of the
under 18 population of the U.S. means that, by dint of generational
replacement, they will become a more important voting bloc in future elections.
Hispanics are 17% of the total U.S. population, but 24% of the under 18
population. Each year, an estimated 800,000 Latino youths turn 18. The
overwhelming share is U.S-born citizens, and thus automatically eligible to
vote once they enter adulthood.
5. Likewise, the so-called Millennial generation(adults, born after
1980, who are now ages 18 to 33) is certain to become a growing share of the
electorate. Today they are 25.5% of the age-eligible electorate. By 2020, they
will be 36.5%. If history is a guide, this cohort of voters will increase its
voter participation levels as it grows older.
6. Non-whites were 26.3% of all votersin the 2012 election, a record
high share. But they compose an even higher share of all U.S. adults age 18 and
older--33.9%. By 2020 this share will rise to 37.2%, and by 2060 it will be
54.8%, according to Census Bureau projections. If the racial voting patterns
from the 2012 election persist, the electoral playing field for future
Republican presidential candidates will become increasingly difficult. (GOP
candidate Mitt Romney received just 17% of the non-white vote.)
Lastly, a methodological note:
The gap between the voter turnout reported by the Census Bureau and the actual
national vote tallied by election officials widened in 2012.According to the
Census Bureau's 2012 Current Population Survey November Supplement on Voting
and Registration, an estimated 133 million U.S. citizens voted in 2012. That
estimate is higher--by 4 million votes--than the national tally of 129 million
votes cast for president.The gap in reported votes and the actual vote tally is
the widest since 2000 (when the gap was 5.4 million votes) and marks the first
widening of the gap since 1984. The Census Bureau's November supplement to the
CPS is the most comprehensive data source available for examining the
demographic composition of the electorate in federal elections, but it relies
on a post-election self-reporting by survey respondents. Because of what is
sometimes described as "social desirability bias" some survey respondents may
say they voted when in fact they did
not.
The blog post, "Six Take-Aways from the Census Bureau's Voting Report,"
authored by Paul Taylor, executive vice president of Pew Research Center, and
Mark Hugo Lopez, associate director of Pew Hispanic Center, is available at the
Pew Hispanic Center's website, www.pewhispanic.org.
Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan source of data and analysis. It does not
take advocacy positions. Its Hispanic Center, founded in 2001, seeks to improve
understanding of the U.S. Hispanic population and to chronicle Latinos' growing
impact on the nation.
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