[Bristol-Birds] Hurricane Sandy and possible bird movements

From: "Wallace Coffey" <jwcoffey@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: "Bristol-birds" <bristol-birds@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Fri, 26 Oct 2012 00:24:47 -0400

















The map at the left shows a pattern of high pressures (in blue), poised ahead 
of a dramatic low 
(indicated by the red line A) in the Great Lakes.  The green line shows the 
rotation of wind pushing
counter clockwise from Hurricane Sandy if it makes northeast landfall.  At the 
right, the frontal system
is shown stalling into the very low pressure of Hurricane Sandy as it landfalls 
along a general
direction of the red arrow.  Possible bird movement would exodus ahead of the 
significant low pressure
off the hurricane, snowfall and prevailing winds flowing from the northeast. 
This week's upcoming 
weather is producing alerts for birders in the northeast US, Atlantic Canada & 
Ontario. A rather strong 
low pressure system in the Great Lakes region with an associated cold front is 
draped south to Texas. 
Ahead of this front is a moderate-to-strong SSW flow in a straight line from 
Texas to SE Canada. Behind 
the front is a sharp drop in temperatures with a moderate north wind.

If the front proceeds eastward with strong enough NW winds behind it, the birds 
may then redirect in a southeast heading, eventually reaching our area. It's 
quite predictable at this time of year.

Any migratory species from the central/western US is more likely to occur after 
such an event. It appears that this front will not clear the region in typical 
fashion, meaning that locally we won't be seeing NW winds in the immediate 
future, but the low and front are strong enough to displace birds so we should 
be on the lookout nonetheless.

The big question is where Hurricane Sandy will be a few days from now. 
Meteorologists presently have little confidence in the computer models given 
their variability, but within a day or so they should have a better idea of 
what is going to happen. At the worst, we may have another tropical cyclone on 
our hands. If not, we should at least see some strong winds behind it that 
could drive more winter influx species to our feeders and south into the 
Appalachians.  We will experience temperatures nearly 40 degrees lower than we 
enjoyed Thursday (a record high for the date).

Rather than watching for coastal species and pelagics carried inland, this 
storm may drive thousands of
Pine Siskins, Purple Finches and Red-breasted Nuthatches farther south from 
areas they are heavily frequenting in the northeast at this time.

Birders, who have been watching hurricanes and trying to determining local 
impacts from storm-driven birds in our area during the past 15 years, have 
never seen anything as vast and amazing as the approach of the hurricane to 
landfall in the northeast.  Meanwhile the line of storms and a complex 
convergence of pressure cells may create a winter bird influx with enjoyable 
results.

We should watch for large movements of winter finches, gulls, diurnal raptors 
(American Kestrels, Golden Eagles, northern Bald Eagles, Red-tails and maybe 
early Rough-legged Hawks).  

We'll continue to watch the storm and pass along any patterns which may become 
obvious.
[Bristol-Birds] Hurricane Sandy and possible bird movements

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