Good question, Miriam. I've wondered from time to time just how many
of us on this list have been hit by the austerity that is dumming down
our lives. I have talked from time to time about the financial hit
we've taken, but seldom about the clients we serve. Many of these
people have seen their support services cut to the bone. One woman
said that her helper used to come three days each week for four hours
per visit. Now she comes twice a week for two hours per visit. In
that time she attempts to set up meals for the week, clean the house
and do the laundry. This client has only light perception, but her
real issue is the lack of legs. She has a scooter, but doing house
work is slow and tiring. She is 86 years old. The list is long and
sad. Which of the two Establishment candidates will come to the aid
of our clients? And by the way, we are funded at the same level as
ten years ago. And our Republican congress continues to press for the
elimination of the Department of Education. That is where our meager
money comes from. Can the New Democrats who have their lips pursed to
the behinds of Wall Street mount a strong support to save the
Department of Education? When Pigs Fly!
Carl Jarvis
On 8/13/16, Miriam Vieni <miriamvieni@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Everyone forgets that we are on a domestic austerity budget because of the
Republican congress. Remember Obama's big bargain? Who did he make that
bargain wit? Do you remember the government shutdown in 2012? The folks on
the BARD Talk list were losing their minds because they didn't have access
to new books for a few weeks. We've had cuts in food assistance, in heating
assistance. There were also cuts to the military, but they've been restored
even though part of the bargain was that they weren't supposed to be. Maybe
no one on this list remembers because none of us went hungry or lost jobs
or
benefits or medical coverage. We didn't even lose our books, except for a
few weeks. We didn't lose our housing. All those people are still there.
They got rid of that poverty program. What was its name? They've been
cutting state medicaid programs and women's health services. They are the
people who wouldn't approve Obama's Supreme Court candidate so that the
Supreme Court is still crippled. As for the House not going along with
Trump
should he become President, Trump wouldn't have been able to make the deals
that he's made, to borrow money without collateral, to lie and cheat, to
refuse to pay small contractors and workers, to employ and underpay
undocumented Polish workers, to run Atlantic City casinos into the ground,
if big banks, politicians and gangsters hadn't been complicit with his
actions throughout his business life. I doubt that paragons of virtue like
Paul Ryan can be counted on to actd any differently.
Miriam
-----Original Message-----
From: blind-democracy-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:blind-democracy-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of Carl Jarvis
Sent: Saturday, August 13, 2016 4:13 PM
To: blind-democracy@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [blind-democracy] Re: Why Republicans Will Keep the House in
November
First time I heard, Gerrymander, I thought it was the male version of
Salamander.
But while the Democrats were busy figuring out how to control their choice
for president, by creating the Super Delegates, the Republicans went back
to
the game book and reminded themselves that victory rises from the grass
roots. A president of either party does not create many new party members.
Winning voters at the ground level to the Party, even if it means playing
with the redistricting, is the sure fire way of controlling the government.
While the Senate was certainly throwing up a road block, allowing nothing
the president wanted, to pass. The House presents an even greater block to
Clinton, supposing she wins. But remember, this House will be made up of
members who are not taking a great shine to Trump. They will block his
crazy plans as surely as they blocked Obama.
Carl Jarvis
On 8/13/16, Miriam Vieni <miriamvieni@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
lines turned 12 of the 16 seats red.
Published on Alternet (http://www.alternet.org) Home > Why Republicans
Will Keep the House in November
________________________________________
Why Republicans Will Keep the House in November By David Daley [1] /
BillMoyers.com [2] August 11, 2016 Democrats are daring to dream. A
sit-in by House Democrats to demand action on post-Orlando gun control
measures energized party faithful, dominated social media and may have
generated enough public pressure to splinter the Republicans'
near-solid fealty to Second Amendment absolutism.
It also encouraged many Democrats to set their sights on something
long considered impossible - taking back the House, where Republicans
and Speaker Paul Ryan hold an historic 247-188 majority. Clinton has
even made her guarantee of a Democratic Congress into an instant
applause-generator on the stump.
But the map for the House of Representatives looks very different.
As strong as Hillary Clinton looks against Donald Trump four months
before Election Day - data whiz Nate Silver now gives Trump less than
a 30-percent shot at beating the former secretary of state, and
projects Clinton has almost 325 Electoral College votes sewn up - 2016
is not looking like a Democratic wave year.
This is a fool's errand. The Republican firewall in the House can
survive even Donald Trump. Indeed, it was painstakingly designed to
keep the House red even in the face of a Democratic landslide. The
reason why? The oldest trick in the book - the gerrymander - which
Republicans used in a thoroughly modern and masterful new way after
sweeping 700 state legislative seats in 2010, and taking control of
two-thirds of all state legislative chambers nationwide.
The Constitution mandates that every congressional and state
legislative district be redrawn after the census, so elections in
"zero years" can reverberate throughout the decade. The maps the
Republicans drew in 2011 - especially in blue and purple states like
Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Ohio - have been
carefully crafted with sophisticated algorithms and reams of
demographic details such as to be virtually impregnable. Even against
a Democratic wave.
The maps paid immediate dividends in 2012, when Barack Obama was
re-elected.
Democrats took 25 of 33 Senate seats, and Democratic House candidates
won
1.4 million more votes than Republicans - but the GOP held the House,
234-201.
In Pennsylvania, Democratic House candidates won 100,000 more votes
than Republicans, but the new lines were artfully packed into so few
districts that the GOP claimed 13 of the 18 seats. In Michigan,
240,000 more voters favored Democrats, but the delegation went 9-5
Republican. Barack Obama won Florida by almost 3 percentage points,
but he only won 40 percent of the tilted congressional districts. Ohio
voters narrowly favored Republican House candidates - but the unforgiving
That means 52 percent of the vote became 75 percent of the seats.House [3]."
Similar stories played out in Wisconsin, North Carolina and many other
states. While nationally, 1.4 million more voters cast ballots for
Democratic House candidates, the lines were so stout that the GOP lost
just seven seats. Republican strategists took a victory lap after the
2012 results, noting that they'd managed to "erect a Republican
firewall through the redistricting process." Indeed, for the first
time since 1972 - and just the second time since World War II - the
party with the most votes did not take control of the chamber.
Democrats are hoping that 2016 will be different, but this is wishful
thinking. In Florida this week, an optimistic Democratic Congressional
Campaign Committee went so far as to reserve six figures' worth of TV
time in the pricey Orlando market to target veteran Republican
lawmaker John Mica, who rolled to victory in 2014 with 63 percent of
the vote. The only reason he's vulnerable is because a Florida judge
ordered his radically gerrymandered district to be redrawn last year.
Trump doesn't jeopardize this seat. If the Democrats capture it, it's
because it was un-gerrymandered. This seat is in play only because
it's the rare district where a judge forced an untilted, fair map.
Democrats are also imagining that Trump could drag down GOP incumbents
in suburban districts in Minnesota, New Jersey and California, and
that he inspires so many Latinos to vote against him in states like
Texas that even more seats are put in play. Some Republicans are
concerned about this as well. In a recent column, National Review
editor Ramesh Ponnuru warns, "Republicans should worry about losing the
Unfortunately for Democrats, there just aren't enough competitivemajority.
districts for any serious challenge to Ryan's speakership. Nationwide
after 2010, Republicans took complete control of drawing 193
districts. The Democrats drew just 44. The GOP specialized in taking
"swing districts" off the table.
Of the 70 districts dubbed "competitive" by NPR in 2010, Republicans
redrew
47 of them in 2011 - and aimed to take them off the table for the next
decade.
Earlier this year, The Cook Political Report [4] identified 31
Republican seats as at risk. Democrats would need to take 97 percent
of those districts to win the House - without losing any of their own.
You'd have to be a character in Dumb & Dumber to look at those odds
and think, "So you're telling me there's a chance."
There's not. There might be a "Never Trump" movement within some wings
of the GOP. But there is no movement to put the Democrats in charge of
the government. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll last week found
Clinton taking control of battleground states - but a 46-46 tie when
voters were asked which party they wanted to control Congress. When
voters were asked the same question in June 2008, when Democrats
retained the House, on that same question the Democrats held a 52-33
advantage.
If polls show a looming Trump debacle by late summer, the smart
Republican money simply moves down-ballot as an insurance policy. The
deep-pocketed GOP donors now seemingly snubbing Trump will simply
focus their money on securing the House and attempting to save the
Senate. It need not be an expensive policy: In his latest Crystal Ball
study [5]last week, the respected political scientist Larry Sabato
rated only nine Republican incumbents as holding "toss-up" seats. His
Center for Politics report rates
227 GOP seats as safe, likely or leaning GOP. It takes only 218 to
control the chamber.
In this age of hardened partisanship, Americans just don't split their
tickets any more. Is it possible that this fall, Republicans turned
off by Trump will hold their nose and vote for Clinton, support a
Libertarian ticket with two former GOP governors or just stay home?
Sure. But to think that many millions of them - enough to rebalance a
deeply undemocratic map
-
will also support Democratic congressional candidates and give Clinton
a chance to govern with a Democratic Congress is the kind of political
fantasy we must dispense with.
Cable news panels, from now through November, will ceaselessly debate
whether the Democrats have a chance at taking back the House. It's a
waste of time. What we need to be talking about instead is how to
reform a system that makes partisan mapmakers more powerful than a
popular
absolutism.
David Daley is the author of "Ratf**ked: The True Story Behind the
Secret Plan to Steal America's Democracy" (W.W. Norton/Liveright)
Share on Facebook Share
Share on Twitter Tweet
Report typos and corrections to 'corrections@xxxxxxxxxxxx'. [6]
[7]
________________________________________
Source URL:
http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/republicans-will-keep-congress
Links:
[1] http://www.alternet.org/authors/david-daley
[2] http://billmoyers.com/
[3]
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-06-17/republicans-should-w
orry-a
bout-losing-the-house
[4] http://cookpolitical.com/house/charts/race-ratings
[5] http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2016-house/
[6] mailto:corrections@xxxxxxxxxxxx?Subject=Typo on Why Republicans
Will Keep the House in November [7] http://www.alternet.org/ [8]
http://www.alternet.org/%2Bnew_src%2B
Published on Alternet (http://www.alternet.org) Home > Why Republicans
Will Keep the House in November
Why Republicans Will Keep the House in November By David Daley [1] /
BillMoyers.com [2] August 11, 2016 AddThis Sharing ButtonsShare to
FacebookShare to TwitterShare to
Google+More
AddThis Share optionsShare to Email
Democrats are daring to dream. A sit-in by House Democrats to demand
action on post-Orlando gun control measures energized party faithful,
dominated social media and may have generated enough public pressure
to splinter the Republicans' near-solid fealty to Second Amendment
It also encouraged many Democrats to set their sights on somethinglines turned 12 of the 16 seats red.
long considered impossible - taking back the House, where Republicans
and Speaker Paul Ryan hold an historic 247-188 majority. Clinton has
even made her guarantee of a Democratic Congress into an instant
applause-generator on the stump.
But the map for the House of Representatives looks very different.
As strong as Hillary Clinton looks against Donald Trump four months
before Election Day - data whiz Nate Silver now gives Trump less than
a 30-percent shot at beating the former secretary of state, and
projects Clinton has almost 325 Electoral College votes sewn up - 2016
is not looking like a Democratic wave year.
This is a fool's errand. The Republican firewall in the House can
survive even Donald Trump. Indeed, it was painstakingly designed to
keep the House red even in the face of a Democratic landslide. The
reason why? The oldest trick in the book - the gerrymander - which
Republicans used in a thoroughly modern and masterful new way after
sweeping 700 state legislative seats in 2010, and taking control of
two-thirds of all state legislative chambers nationwide.
The Constitution mandates that every congressional and state
legislative district be redrawn after the census, so elections in
"zero years" can reverberate throughout the decade. The maps the
Republicans drew in 2011 - especially in blue and purple states like
Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Ohio - have been
carefully crafted with sophisticated algorithms and reams of
demographic details such as to be virtually impregnable. Even against
a Democratic wave.
The maps paid immediate dividends in 2012, when Barack Obama was
re-elected.
Democrats took 25 of 33 Senate seats, and Democratic House candidates
won
1.4 million more votes than Republicans - but the GOP held the House,
234-201.
In Pennsylvania, Democratic House candidates won 100,000 more votes
than Republicans, but the new lines were artfully packed into so few
districts that the GOP claimed 13 of the 18 seats. In Michigan,
240,000 more voters favored Democrats, but the delegation went 9-5
Republican. Barack Obama won Florida by almost 3 percentage points,
but he only won 40 percent of the tilted congressional districts. Ohio
voters narrowly favored Republican House candidates - but the unforgiving
That means 52 percent of the vote became 75 percent of the seats.House [3]."
Similar stories played out in Wisconsin, North Carolina and many other
states. While nationally, 1.4 million more voters cast ballots for
Democratic House candidates, the lines were so stout that the GOP lost
just seven seats. Republican strategists took a victory lap after the
2012 results, noting that they'd managed to "erect a Republican
firewall through the redistricting process." Indeed, for the first
time since 1972 - and just the second time since World War II - the
party with the most votes did not take control of the chamber.
Democrats are hoping that 2016 will be different, but this is wishful
thinking. In Florida this week, an optimistic Democratic Congressional
Campaign Committee went so far as to reserve six figures' worth of TV
time in the pricey Orlando market to target veteran Republican
lawmaker John Mica, who rolled to victory in 2014 with 63 percent of
the vote. The only reason he's vulnerable is because a Florida judge
ordered his radically gerrymandered district to be redrawn last year.
Trump doesn't jeopardize this seat. If the Democrats capture it, it's
because it was un-gerrymandered. This seat is in play only because
it's the rare district where a judge forced an untilted, fair map.
Democrats are also imagining that Trump could drag down GOP incumbents
in suburban districts in Minnesota, New Jersey and California, and
that he inspires so many Latinos to vote against him in states like
Texas that even more seats are put in play. Some Republicans are
concerned about this as well. In a recent column, National Review
editor Ramesh Ponnuru warns, "Republicans should worry about losing the
Unfortunately for Democrats, there just aren't enough competitivemajority.
districts for any serious challenge to Ryan's speakership. Nationwide
after 2010, Republicans took complete control of drawing 193
districts. The Democrats drew just 44. The GOP specialized in taking
"swing districts" off the table.
Of the 70 districts dubbed "competitive" by NPR in 2010, Republicans
redrew
47 of them in 2011 - and aimed to take them off the table for the next
decade.
Earlier this year, The Cook Political Report [4] identified 31
Republican seats as at risk. Democrats would need to take 97 percent
of those districts to win the House - without losing any of their own.
You'd have to be a character in Dumb & Dumber to look at those odds
and think, "So you're telling me there's a chance."
There's not. There might be a "Never Trump" movement within some wings
of the GOP. But there is no movement to put the Democrats in charge of
the government. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll last week found
Clinton taking control of battleground states - but a 46-46 tie when
voters were asked which party they wanted to control Congress. When
voters were asked the same question in June 2008, when Democrats
retained the House, on that same question the Democrats held a 52-33
advantage.
If polls show a looming Trump debacle by late summer, the smart
Republican money simply moves down-ballot as an insurance policy. The
deep-pocketed GOP donors now seemingly snubbing Trump will simply
focus their money on securing the House and attempting to save the
Senate. It need not be an expensive policy: In his latest Crystal Ball
study [5]last week, the respected political scientist Larry Sabato
rated only nine Republican incumbents as holding "toss-up" seats. His
Center for Politics report rates
227 GOP seats as safe, likely or leaning GOP. It takes only 218 to
control the chamber.
In this age of hardened partisanship, Americans just don't split their
tickets any more. Is it possible that this fall, Republicans turned
off by Trump will hold their nose and vote for Clinton, support a
Libertarian ticket with two former GOP governors or just stay home?
Sure. But to think that many millions of them - enough to rebalance a
deeply undemocratic map
-
will also support Democratic congressional candidates and give Clinton
a chance to govern with a Democratic Congress is the kind of political
fantasy we must dispense with.
Cable news panels, from now through November, will ceaselessly debate
whether the Democrats have a chance at taking back the House. It's a
waste of time. What we need to be talking about instead is how to
reform a system that makes partisan mapmakers more powerful than a
popular
David Daley is the author of "Ratf**ked: The True Story Behind the
Secret Plan to Steal America's Democracy" (W.W. Norton/Liveright)
Error! Hyperlink reference not valid.
Error! Hyperlink reference not valid.
Report typos and corrections to 'corrections@xxxxxxxxxxxx'. [6] Error!
Hyperlink reference not valid.[7]
Source URL:
http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/republicans-will-keep-congress
Links:
[1] http://www.alternet.org/authors/david-daley
[2] http://billmoyers.com/
[3]
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-06-17/republicans-should-w
orry-a
bout-losing-the-house
[4] http://cookpolitical.com/house/charts/race-ratings
[5] http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2016-house/
[6] mailto:corrections@xxxxxxxxxxxx?Subject=Typo on Why Republicans
Will Keep the House in November [7] http://www.alternet.org/ [8]
http://www.alternet.org/%2Bnew_src%2B
