Unfortunately, Juan Cole is not a peace activist. Therefore, it doesn't
occur to him to suggest that the US position should be to keep all arms
shipments out of the area.
Miriam
Truthdig
What Is Russia's Strategy in Syria and Why Does Egypt Approve?
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/what_is_russias_strategy_in_syria_and_wh
y_does_egypt_approve_20151008/
Posted on Oct 8, 2015
By Juan Cole
This post originally ran on Juan Cole's
webpage(http://www.juancole.com/2015/10/russias-strategy-approve.html) .
Russian MiGs for the first time on Wednesday gave close air support
(http://www.alriyadh.com/1089156) to the Syrian Arab Army as it attacked
rebels north of Homs. The Russians also continued their airstrikes against
rebel-held Idlib Province. And, the Russians for the first time launched
cruise missiles from warships in the Caspian Sea on rebel targets. Over the
past week and a half, Russian strategy is becoming apparent.
h/t Casteneda Collection U of Texas
The US State Department says it is bewildered by Egypt's
support(http://www.alaraby.co.uk/politics/2015/10/7/%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B4%D9%86
%D8%B7%D9%86-%D8%AD%D8%A7%D8%A6%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%AD%D9%82%D9%8A%
D9%82%D8%A9-%D9%85%D9%88%D9%82%D9%81-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%B3%D9%8A-%D
9%85%D9%86-%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9 ) for the Russian airstrikes on
rebels in Syria. But virtually all the rebel groups who amount to anything
militarily in Syria are hard line fundamentalists, and Egypt's generals made
a coup against Egypt's own Muslim Brotherhood in 2013. So the officers are
not sympathetic to Syrian Muslim Brethren who have become more radical and
are trying to overthrow a government. Since Saudi Arabia and its allies on
the Gulf Cooperation Council bankroll the regime in Egypt and since they
fund the Salafi hardliners in Syria, there may be some friction between
Cairo and Riyadh over this difference. But the Saudis also did want the
officers to crush the Muslim Brotherhood, which the Saudis see as a populist
loose cannon, so the situation is very complex. Probably the Saudis don't
mind if the Russians bomb the Muslim Brotherhood groups, but do mind if they
bomb the Salafis, who model themselves on Saudi Wahhabism and are loyal to
the monarchy.
The Russian intervention was not provoked by Daesh (ISIS, ISIL) but by the
al-Qaeda-led coalition 'the Army of Conquest'. It groups The Support Front
or al-Qaeda in Syria- which reports to Ayman al-Zawahiri, the mastermind of
9/11 - with other hard line Salafi fundamentalist groups such as the Freemen
of Syria (Ahrar al-Sham). The latter rejects democracy and is willing
toturn over religious minorities like the Druze to al-Qaeda, with
predictable
results.(http://www.juancole.com/2015/06/religious-minority-persecutes.html
)
Al-Qaeda and its allies took the northern province of Idlib away from more
moderate
rebels(http://www.juancole.com/2014/11/moderate-stronghold-extremists.html )
last November, and then this spring took the key cities of
Idlib(http://www.juancole.com/2015/03/changer-syrian-factions.html ) (the
provincial capital) and Jisr
al-Shughour(http://www.juancole.com/2015/04/syria-shughur-threatening.html )
, the town that serves as a gateway to Latakia to the West.
Latakia is Syria's major port and is sort of like its mouth. The digestive
track goes down to Hama, then Homs, then Damascus. If al-Qaeda and its
allies can effectively move west to Latakia port, they can massacre the
Alawites supporting the al-Assad regime, who predominate in that province,
and then cut the capital of Damascus in the south off from resupply by port.
Likely then the regime will fall. Jisr al-Shughour was taken by al-Qaeda
and other groups, including a Chechen unit of hard line fundamentalists,
which would have alarmed the Russians. Vladimir Putin made his bones by
crushing the second Chechen uprising, which was led by fundamentalists
seeking an emirate. He wouldn't want another such emirate with Chechen high
officials to grow up so close to Russia as Latakia.
Latest ISW map of #Russian(https://twitter.com/hashtag/Russian?src=hash)
airstrikes in #Syria(https://twitter.com/hashtag/Syria?src=hash) . Primary
targets? Opposition groups. http://t.co/VfelHQO0mb(http://t.co/VfelHQO0mb)
pic.twitter.com/i8DMTHVGeP(http://t.co/i8DMTHVGeP)
- ISW (@TheStudyofWar) October 6,
2015(https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/651518195178831872)
So Russia has as its objective to keep Hama from falling to the rebels,
which would begin the process of cutting off the southern capital of
Damascus from northern supply lines. Hence Russia is bombing rebel
positions north of Hama. Moreover, if the Syrian Arab Army could defeat the
militants north of Hama, it could take Khan
Shaykhoun(http://www.alhadathnews.net/archives/165744 ) , and then move on
southern Idlib.
Al-Qaeda has fighters north of Hama but so do smaller, less radical
guerrilla groups (though some of these have fought alongside al-Qaeda
sometimes). Moscow does not care so much whether it is bombing al-Qaeda or
Salafi Jihadis allied with al-Qaeda, or even what Washington is now calling
"moderates," though I doubt many genuine moderates are still in the field.
Russia wants to break the northern siege of Hama by these fundamentalist
rebels and by al-Qaeda and its allies, and then break out north toward
Idlib. Hence it gave air support to the SAA in its offensive, though early
reports are that this offensive failed to make much headway.
Likewise, Russia wants to forestall any al-Qaeda advance on the Alawites of
Latakia from the east, so it is bombing Army of Conquest units and arms
depots in Idlib. If Moscow can go beyond that goal and roll the group and
its allies back from Idlib, from Putin's point of view that would be all to
the good.
US spokesmen and politicians who complain that Russia isn't hitting Daesh/
ISIL don't get it. Either they don't understand that with al-Qaeda in
Idlib, Latakia could fall. Or they are just lying. Secretary of Defense
Ash Carter said Wednesday that 90% of Russian strikes were not on ISIL or
al-Qaeda. I do not believe this is true, since Russia is clearly bombing a
lot of Support Front and Army of Conquest positions. But anyway I think if
we formulated the question differently, of how many strikes were on al-Qaeda
and its allies, we'd find that the majority were.
I should explain that with Syria, I"m just trying to analyze. I don't have
a dog in this fight. I despise the al-Assad regime, which is genocidal and
has engaged in mass torture. But I absolutely refuse to support any group
allied with Ayman al-Zawahiri's al-Qaeda or which envisions Syria as a
hardline Salafi emirate where Christians, Alawites, Druze and Kurds
(altogether maybe 40% of the population) as well as secular Sunni Arabs
(another 45%) are second class citizens ruled by a self-appointed morals
police with machine guns.
I have a sinking suspicion that my position on al-Qaeda as a red line is not
shared by some high US officials. If I am right about this, they should be
ashamed of themselves and go back and read about the origins of al-Qaeda in
1980s Afghanistan. US-supported jihads have a way of biting us on the ass.
Good and bad in today's Syria is also contextual. Having the Baath Party or
its goons, the Shabiha, rule religious Sunnis is bound to cause inequities.
But for the fundamentalists to conquer Alawite Latakia or the Druze regions
would result in an enormous tragedy.
Ultimately Syria can only be healed by democracy and the separation of
religion and state. Neither the regime nor the rebels get this, and there
is no guarantee they ever will.
Just 158 Families Have Provided Nearly Half the Financing for Early Efforts
for the White House
TPP Chapter Released by WikiLeaks Would Let Governments Curtail Trials So
as to Contain Information
A Heroin Crisis Rears Its Head as a Presidential Campaign Issue
Bernie Sanders in Tucson: Immigrants Are 'Doing the Hardest Work in
America'
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C 2015 Truthdig, LLC. All rights reserved.
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Truthdig
What Is Russia's Strategy in Syria and Why Does Egypt Approve?
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/what_is_russias_strategy_in_syria_and_wh
y_does_egypt_approve_20151008/
Posted on Oct 8, 2015
By Juan Cole
This post originally ran on Juan Cole's
webpage(http://www.juancole.com/2015/10/russias-strategy-approve.html) .
Russian MiGs for the first time on Wednesday gave close air support
(http://www.alriyadh.com/1089156) to the Syrian Arab Army as it attacked
rebels north of Homs. The Russians also continued their airstrikes against
rebel-held Idlib Province. And, the Russians for the first time launched
cruise missiles from warships in the Caspian Sea on rebel targets. Over the
past week and a half, Russian strategy is becoming apparent.
h/t Casteneda Collection U of Texas
The US State Department says it is bewildered by Egypt's
support(http://www.alaraby.co.uk/politics/2015/10/7/%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B4%D9%86
%D8%B7%D9%86-%D8%AD%D8%A7%D8%A6%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%AD%D9%82%D9%8A%
D9%82%D8%A9-%D9%85%D9%88%D9%82%D9%81-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%B3%D9%8A-%D
9%85%D9%86-%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9 ) for the Russian airstrikes on
rebels in Syria. But virtually all the rebel groups who amount to anything
militarily in Syria are hard line fundamentalists, and Egypt's generals made
a coup against Egypt's own Muslim Brotherhood in 2013. So the officers are
not sympathetic to Syrian Muslim Brethren who have become more radical and
are trying to overthrow a government. Since Saudi Arabia and its allies on
the Gulf Cooperation Council bankroll the regime in Egypt and since they
fund the Salafi hardliners in Syria, there may be some friction between
Cairo and Riyadh over this difference. But the Saudis also did want the
officers to crush the Muslim Brotherhood, which the Saudis see as a populist
loose cannon, so the situation is very complex. Probably the Saudis don't
mind if the Russians bomb the Muslim Brotherhood groups, but do mind if they
bomb the Salafis, who model themselves on Saudi Wahhabism and are loyal to
the monarchy.
The Russian intervention was not provoked by Daesh (ISIS, ISIL) but by the
al-Qaeda-led coalition 'the Army of Conquest'. It groups The Support Front
or al-Qaeda in Syria- which reports to Ayman al-Zawahiri, the mastermind of
9/11 - with other hard line Salafi fundamentalist groups such as the Freemen
of Syria (Ahrar al-Sham). The latter rejects democracy and is willing
toturn over religious minorities like the Druze to al-Qaeda, with
predictable
results.(http://www.juancole.com/2015/06/religious-minority-persecutes.html
)
Al-Qaeda and its allies took the northern province of Idlib away from more
moderate
rebels(http://www.juancole.com/2014/11/moderate-stronghold-extremists.html )
last November, and then this spring took the key cities of
Idlib(http://www.juancole.com/2015/03/changer-syrian-factions.html ) (the
provincial capital) and Jisr
al-Shughour(http://www.juancole.com/2015/04/syria-shughur-threatening.html )
, the town that serves as a gateway to Latakia to the West.
Latakia is Syria's major port and is sort of like its mouth. The digestive
track goes down to Hama, then Homs, then Damascus. If al-Qaeda and its
allies can effectively move west to Latakia port, they can massacre the
Alawites supporting the al-Assad regime, who predominate in that province,
and then cut the capital of Damascus in the south off from resupply by port.
Likely then the regime will fall. Jisr al-Shughour was taken by al-Qaeda
and other groups, including a Chechen unit of hard line fundamentalists,
which would have alarmed the Russians. Vladimir Putin made his bones by
crushing the second Chechen uprising, which was led by fundamentalists
seeking an emirate. He wouldn't want another such emirate with Chechen high
officials to grow up so close to Russia as Latakia.
Latest ISW map of #Russian(https://twitter.com/hashtag/Russian?src=hash)
airstrikes in #Syria(https://twitter.com/hashtag/Syria?src=hash) . Primary
targets? Opposition groups. http://t.co/VfelHQO0mb(http://t.co/VfelHQO0mb)
pic.twitter.com/i8DMTHVGeP(http://t.co/i8DMTHVGeP)
- ISW (@TheStudyofWar) October 6,
2015(https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/651518195178831872)
So Russia has as its objective to keep Hama from falling to the rebels,
which would begin the process of cutting off the southern capital of
Damascus from northern supply lines. Hence Russia is bombing rebel
positions north of Hama. Moreover, if the Syrian Arab Army could defeat the
militants north of Hama, it could take Khan
Shaykhoun(http://www.alhadathnews.net/archives/165744 ) , and then move on
southern Idlib.
Al-Qaeda has fighters north of Hama but so do smaller, less radical
guerrilla groups (though some of these have fought alongside al-Qaeda
sometimes). Moscow does not care so much whether it is bombing al-Qaeda or
Salafi Jihadis allied with al-Qaeda, or even what Washington is now calling
"moderates," though I doubt many genuine moderates are still in the field.
Russia wants to break the northern siege of Hama by these fundamentalist
rebels and by al-Qaeda and its allies, and then break out north toward
Idlib. Hence it gave air support to the SAA in its offensive, though early
reports are that this offensive failed to make much headway.
Likewise, Russia wants to forestall any al-Qaeda advance on the Alawites of
Latakia from the east, so it is bombing Army of Conquest units and arms
depots in Idlib. If Moscow can go beyond that goal and roll the group and
its allies back from Idlib, from Putin's point of view that would be all to
the good.
US spokesmen and politicians who complain that Russia isn't hitting Daesh/
ISIL don't get it. Either they don't understand that with al-Qaeda in
Idlib, Latakia could fall. Or they are just lying. Secretary of Defense
Ash Carter said Wednesday that 90% of Russian strikes were not on ISIL or
al-Qaeda. I do not believe this is true, since Russia is clearly bombing a
lot of Support Front and Army of Conquest positions. But anyway I think if
we formulated the question differently, of how many strikes were on al-Qaeda
and its allies, we'd find that the majority were.
I should explain that with Syria, I"m just trying to analyze. I don't have
a dog in this fight. I despise the al-Assad regime, which is genocidal and
has engaged in mass torture. But I absolutely refuse to support any group
allied with Ayman al-Zawahiri's al-Qaeda or which envisions Syria as a
hardline Salafi emirate where Christians, Alawites, Druze and Kurds
(altogether maybe 40% of the population) as well as secular Sunni Arabs
(another 45%) are second class citizens ruled by a self-appointed morals
police with machine guns.
I have a sinking suspicion that my position on al-Qaeda as a red line is not
shared by some high US officials. If I am right about this, they should be
ashamed of themselves and go back and read about the origins of al-Qaeda in
1980s Afghanistan. US-supported jihads have a way of biting us on the ass.
Good and bad in today's Syria is also contextual. Having the Baath Party or
its goons, the Shabiha, rule religious Sunnis is bound to cause inequities.
But for the fundamentalists to conquer Alawite Latakia or the Druze regions
would result in an enormous tragedy.
Ultimately Syria can only be healed by democracy and the separation of
religion and state. Neither the regime nor the rebels get this, and there
is no guarantee they ever will.
Just 158 Families Have Provided Nearly Half the Financing for Early Efforts
for the White House
TPP Chapter Released by WikiLeaks Would Let Governments Curtail Trials So
as to Contain Information
A Heroin Crisis Rears Its Head as a Presidential Campaign Issue
Bernie Sanders in Tucson: Immigrants Are 'Doing the Hardest Work in
America'
Truthdig: Drilling Beneath the Headlines
C 2015 Truthdig, LLC. All rights reserved.
Signup for Truthdig's newsletter
