Here's Why Democrats' Chances for a Big Midterms Win Are Looking
Even Better - And What Still Stands in Their Way
Five trends to watch to take the pulse of American democracy.
Steven Rosenfeld Independent Media Institute November 2, 2018,
12:27 PM GMT
With the 2018 midterms days away, the blue voter tide is
rising.
That's according to state-reported numbers on people voting
early, compared to 2014's midterms. How high the blue wave will
crest remains to be seen-not just for control of Congress and
many state races, but for whether a governing mandate will
emerge.
There are several trends those on the democracy beat will be
tracking. Here they are:
1. What Kind of Wave?
As of Thursday night, the nation's leading academic voter
turnout tracker made it official: these midterms have entered
uncharted territory. As the University of Florida's Michael
McDonald tweeted, "We've passed a milestone in that more people
(28 million) have voted early in 2018 election (by any means:
absentee, mail ballot, in-person) than voted early in 2014 across
the entire nation (27 million)."
Who's voting early? McDonald said, "27 states + DC surpassed
their 2014 total #earlyvote: AZ, DC, DE, FL, GA, ID, IL, IN, KS,
LA, ME, MD, MN, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NJ, NM, NV, OK, SC, TN, VA,
WI, and WV 1 state surpassed its 2014 total vote (early +
Election Day): TX (in the 30 reporting counties)." Breaking these
figures down further, The Economist's G. Elliott Morris tweeted,
"(1) Voters are turning out more like it's a presidential
election than a midterm. (2) Democrats are the ones who are
voting early (3) Unaffiliated voters are breaking to the
Democrats about 60 to 25%.was
All of this puts Democrats in the big-picture lead, according
to the most reliable polls-which are not single polls, but many
polls that are averaged, and ask about generic party leanings.
Real Clear Politics average of generic congressional candidates
put Dems up by 7.5 percent. Of course, elections are local-not
generic-and that's why polls can miss.
So what shape are blue wave voters in? The answer is they
appear to have a slight edge-but that's not too far ahead in the
most heavily policed voting locales. Why not? That 7.5 percent
blue lead has positive and worrisome elements.
On the positive side, that lead is on top of the partisan edge
created in most heavily gerrymandered districts (U.S. House and
state legislatures). That's because pollsters are looking at the
finish line popular vote, not the starting line advantages or
disadvantages; where gerrymanders slice and dice the electorate
when drawing districts. This fall is apparently seeing lots of
people, not just registered Democrats, vote blue.)
But on the worrisome or deflating side, the 7.5 percent lead
does not include the impact of strict voter ID laws, which can
undermine turnout at the finish line by 2-to-3 percent. Nor do
they include the impacts of purging infrequent voters or
disqualifying ballots for technical reasons, both of which are
GOP power plays in some states and may peel off another point or
two. So the bottom line here is every vote matters-not just to
achieve winning popular votes, but to achieve genuine governing
mandates.
2. How Many New Governors?
While most eyes and ears-and newscasters-are talking about the
president and control of the U.S. House (the Dems need to pick
up 23 seats to retake the majority) and Senate, term limits have
led to more open governor's seats in for the first time in many
years.
There are important races with national implications in
Florida, Georgia, Ohio and Michigan, where, it appears, according
to those averaged polls, that Democrats stand good chances of
winning in these otherwise purple states that are become
presidential battlegrounds. But that's not the only reason these
governor's races are key.
These states, which have been dominated by gerrymandered
Republican-run state legislatures and U.S. House delegations,
have been in the forefront of litigation to challenge
reproductive rights, climate change policy, health care safety
nets, same-sex marriage and LGBT rights, and other progressive
policies.
While it is not likely that 2018's wave will completely change
the political complexion of these red-run states, electing
Democratic governors will mean that new gerrymandered political
maps in 2021 will face veto pens. Such potential vetoes mean
that the 2020s decade would not be as driven by the same
partisans as experienced in the 2010s.
3. Freeing Florida's Ex-Felons?
The most important ballot measure question on the November
ballots arguably is in the Sunshine State, where roughly 10
percent of its voting-age population are ex-felons who have
served their sentences-but lost their right to vote under state
law. This fall's ballot measure would restore voting rights to
1.5 million Floridians, which is a political game-changer that
could turn Florida from a purple state to a politically blue
state for years. However, the measure needs 60 percent voter
approval to pass, which is a high bar.
In the governor's race, polling averages on Friday put the
Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Andrew Gillum, ahead by 2.7
percent, a smaller margin than just a week ago. While it is a
bit of an apples to oranges comparison, that polling snapshot
suggests that the re-enfranchisement proposal needs a large
last-minute surge to pass.
4. Will Voter Suppression Work?
The tricks of the dark voter suppression trade are well-known,
and there has been no shortage of press coverage of 2018's worst
offenders-lead by Georgia and North Dakota. (There are other
less-covered examples in Arizona, Missouri, Indiana and Kansas.)
In all these states, Republicans have turned voter registration
and ballot-verifying technicalities into reasons to bar likely
Democrats from participating.
Those tactics involved not promptly processing voter
registration information, taking infrequent voters off of
statewide voter rolls, rejecting mail-in ballots based on how a
person signs the outside envelope and designing voter ID
requirements that intentionally are harder for Native Americans
to satisfy. The good news here is that local voting rights legal
defense groups are watching, are organized and are helping people
get past hurdles.
The open question is whether these bureaucratic barriers will
impede a larger class of voters-as they are made to wait in line
while unsuspecting individuals who find they are not being given
a regular ballot interact with poll workers and end up casting
provisional ballots (which need further certification before
being counted). At this stage in the voting wars, the
suppressive tactics and legal remedies are known. They question
is to what degree will they come into play on Tuesday.
5. Will Cyber-Sabotage Strike?
Put another way, the question is will the Russians-or any
domestic cyber-warrior-somehow sabotage the information systems
that are used to check in voters and then tally their ballots?
In 2016, Russian intelligence agents hacked into Illinois'
state voter registration database, but didn't scramble the names
and addresses and precinct assignments-the fear there, as that
could lead to great frustration and chaos at polling places.
Russians did not get near the systems counting votes, according
to every congressional and intelligence agency inquiry since.
But the Illinois breach has made cyber security a priority in
elections as never before (arguably bringing it in line to where
it should have always been.)
Experts tracking cyber threats to voting say the public should
be confident. As David Becker, executive director and founder of
the Center for Election Innovation & Research, wrote in the
Washington Post, "Russia's efforts have driven an unprecedented
response from federal, state and local officials charged with
securing our election systems. Time and time again, secretaries
of state and state election directors from both parties have made
clear that while the threat to our elections is real, they are
singularly focused on and prepared to address it in 2018 and
beyond."
Becker is in a position to know what states and counties are
doing. While one maxim in the cyber-security world is one should
never say never, it is more likely than not voting will not be
disrupted by outsiders. That is not to say that there won't be
machinery snafus and other glitches that occur every election,
especially as the nation's fleet of voting machines is well past
what's considered old age for computers.
Wave or Mandate?
The biggest question heading into Tuesday's finale of the 2018
midterm-voting season is will Democrats see a blue wave or a blue
mandate?
The two are not the same. It's likely the results will be very
close in some key races, just as there are likely to be
Democratic blowouts and GOP-winning surprises elsewhere. But
overall, the foremost question is whether the voters will act
with enough collective clout to send a message that the nation's
political agenda and culture must change. That's what most
Americans will be watching for on Tuesday once the results are
in.