VIDEO: Obama 1, Netanyahu 0, as Democrats and Public Rally on Iran Deal
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/obama_1_netanyahu_0_as_democrats_and_pub
lic_rally_to_iran_deal_video_201509/
Posted on Sep 2, 2015
By Juan Cole
This post originally ran on Juan Cole's website.
The Israel lobbies don't win every fight on Capitol Hill, but over time they
have tended to win the big ones in recent decades. This time, they are going
down. Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu, a notorious narcissist,
appears to have completely over-estimated his ability to deploy those
lobbies to overrule President Obama on the United Nations Security Council's
deal with Iran to monitor its civilian nuclear energy program so as to
forestall any break-out toward an atomic bomb.
On Tuesday, two Democrats known as Iran hawks came out for the agreement,
Senator Robert P. Casey of Pennsylvania and Senator Chris Coons of Delaware.
That makes 31 Democrats and 2 independents in the Senate for Obama, and he
only needs 34 to block an override of his veto if a resolution is passed in
Congress and sent to his desk. Given that Casey and Coons are hard line
Iran hawks, if Obama can get them, there are others in the undecided column
that will be even easier to convince. In fact, the Democrats and
independents have 46 seats, and Obama has so far only lost two senators,
Schumer and Menendez. If he can keep at least 39 Democrats and the two
independents with him, he could even avoid the embarrassment of a resolution
against the deal passing at all. It is highly likely that most Democrats in
the House will stand with the president, as well.
Casey's office put out a 17-page statement on the deal. He said, "This
agreement will substantially constrain the Iranian nuclear program for its
duration, and, compared with all realistic alternatives, it is the best
option available to us at this time . . . " Casey called it "one of the
most difficult decisions of my public career."
Chris Coons said at a talk at the University of Delaware:
"I will support this agreement and vote against any measures to disapprove
it in Congress . . . I will support this agreement because it puts us on a
known path of limiting Iran's nuclear program for the next 15 years with the
full support of the international community. The alternative, to me, is a
scenario of uncertainty and likely isolation. . . Finally, I will support
this agreement despite its flaws because it is the better strategy for the
United States to lead a coalesced global community in containing the spread
of nuclear weapons."
Coons does not like some aspects of the agreement very much, but he is
convinced that to withdraw from it would isolate the US from the other
Security Council members rather than isolating Iran. He also doesn't think
getting a better deal or reimposing severe sanctions is plausible.
Representatives and senators generally try to represent their constituents,
and a recent poll [pdf] found that three-fourths of Democrats would find it
acceptable or tolerable if Congress approved of the Vienna agreement with
Iran. Moreover, 63% of the general public feels that way! Democrats and
independents, who together make up at least two-thirds of the electorate,
agree on this matter. Among Republicans, even 44% of them would find
approval tolerable or acceptable.
The US has many ethnic lobbies, and the Israel lobby is not different from
the Cuban or Armenian. The Israel lobbies have lost battles that were
important to them (they initially opposed the massive arming of Saudi
Arabia, but Saudi Arabia is nevertheless massively armed). Moreover, ethnic
lobbies are often not completely united on certain issues, and that is what
happened here.
Netanyahu faced the problem that the US Jewish community strongly favors the
Iran deal. In polling, Jewish Americans are much more enthusiastic about it
than the general American public, which also largely supports it. The
left-leaning lobby for Israel, J-Street, has even spent millions on
television advertising in support of the agreement. There is a sense in
which the Iran deal is a project of the American Jewish community as well as
of other Democrats, and is their reaction against the excesses of Bush's
Iraq War. A majority of the Jewish senators have come out for it. They
believe that diplomacy can make Israel more secure, whereas flailing about
fighting wars and undermining stability in the region has made it an even
more dangerous neighborhood for Israel. The much more hawkish American
Israel Public Affairs Committee, the Jewish Institute for National Affairs,
the Zionist Organization of America and other constituents of the Israel
lobbies have all along represented a small proportion of the American Jewish
community. It is admittedly an extremely wealthy sliver of the community,
but votes and enthusiasm matter more than money, or Mitt Romney would be
president.
While Obama does need another senator (and two or three would be better,
just to make sure) to ensure this historic victory for peace and diplomacy,
it is not premature to call this game over. The only suspense now is
whether Obama can get 41 in the Senate and so forestall a negative
resolution entirely. That would be best of all.
http://www.truthdig.com/ http://www.truthdig.com/
VIDEO: Obama 1, Netanyahu 0, as Democrats and Public Rally on Iran Deal
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/obama_1_netanyahu_0_as_democrats_and_pub
lic_rally_to_iran_deal_video_201509/
Posted on Sep 2, 2015
By Juan Cole
This post originally ran on Juan Cole's website.
The Israel lobbies don't win every fight on Capitol Hill, but over time they
have tended to win the big ones in recent decades. This time, they are going
down. Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu, a notorious narcissist,
appears to have completely over-estimated his ability to deploy those
lobbies to overrule President Obama on the United Nations Security Council's
deal with Iran to monitor its civilian nuclear energy program so as to
forestall any break-out toward an atomic bomb.
On Tuesday, two Democrats known as Iran hawks came out for the agreement,
Senator Robert P. Casey of Pennsylvania and Senator Chris Coons of Delaware.
That makes 31 Democrats and 2 independents in the Senate for Obama, and he
only needs 34 to block an override of his veto if a resolution is passed in
Congress and sent to his desk. Given that Casey and Coons are hard line Iran
hawks, if Obama can get them, there are others in the undecided column that
will be even easier to convince. In fact, the Democrats and independents
have 46 seats, and Obama has so far only lost two senators, Schumer and
Menendez. If he can keep at least 39 Democrats and the two independents with
him, he could even avoid the embarrassment of a resolution against the deal
passing at all. It is highly likely that most Democrats in the House will
stand with the president, as well.
Casey's office put out a 17-page statement on the deal. He said, "This
agreement will substantially constrain the Iranian nuclear program for its
duration, and, compared with all realistic alternatives, it is the best
option available to us at this time . . . " Casey called it "one of the most
difficult decisions of my public career."
Chris Coons said at a talk at the University of Delaware:
"I will support this agreement and vote against any measures to disapprove
it in Congress . . . I will support this agreement because it puts us on a
known path of limiting Iran's nuclear program for the next 15 years with the
full support of the international community. The alternative, to me, is a
scenario of uncertainty and likely isolation. . . Finally, I will support
this agreement despite its flaws because it is the better strategy for the
United States to lead a coalesced global community in containing the spread
of nuclear weapons."
Coons does not like some aspects of the agreement very much, but he is
convinced that to withdraw from it would isolate the US from the other
Security Council members rather than isolating Iran. He also doesn't think
getting a better deal or reimposing severe sanctions is plausible.
Representatives and senators generally try to represent their constituents,
and a recent poll [pdf] found that three-fourths of Democrats would find it
acceptable or tolerable if Congress approved of the Vienna agreement with
Iran. Moreover, 63% of the general public feels that way! Democrats and
independents, who together make up at least two-thirds of the electorate,
agree on this matter. Among Republicans, even 44% of them would find
approval tolerable or acceptable.
The US has many ethnic lobbies, and the Israel lobby is not different from
the Cuban or Armenian. The Israel lobbies have lost battles that were
important to them (they initially opposed the massive arming of Saudi
Arabia, but Saudi Arabia is nevertheless massively armed). Moreover, ethnic
lobbies are often not completely united on certain issues, and that is what
happened here.
Netanyahu faced the problem that the US Jewish community strongly favors the
Iran deal. In polling, Jewish Americans are much more enthusiastic about it
than the general American public, which also largely supports it. The
left-leaning lobby for Israel, J-Street, has even spent millions on
television advertising in support of the agreement. There is a sense in
which the Iran deal is a project of the American Jewish community as well as
of other Democrats, and is their reaction against the excesses of Bush's
Iraq War. A majority of the Jewish senators have come out for it. They
believe that diplomacy can make Israel more secure, whereas flailing about
fighting wars and undermining stability in the region has made it an even
more dangerous neighborhood for Israel. The much more hawkish American
Israel Public Affairs Committee, the Jewish Institute for National Affairs,
the Zionist Organization of America and other constituents of the Israel
lobbies have all along represented a small proportion of the American Jewish
community. It is admittedly an extremely wealthy sliver of the community,
but votes and enthusiasm matter more than money, or Mitt Romney would be
president.
While Obama does need another senator (and two or three would be better,
just to make sure) to ensure this historic victory for peace and diplomacy,
it is not premature to call this game over. The only suspense now is whether
Obama can get 41 in the Senate and so forestall a negative resolution
entirely. That would be best of all.
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