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Saudi Yemen Feature photo
THE FORGOTTEN WAR
US, Lobbyists and Arm Dealers Scramble to Reposition Amid Impending Saudi
Defeat in Yemen
Recent developments in the Yemen war are increasingly pointing to the
possibility that Biden’s ostensible moves towards peace may simply be an
attempt to control the narrative and save face around what is looking like yet
another defeat in the long-running American-sponsored global war on terror.
by Raul Diego
March 25th, 2021
Mint Press
By Raul Diego
WASHINGTON — In his last months in office, former President Donald Trump gave
American defense contractors like Lockheed Martin and Reaper drone manufacturer
General Atomics Aeronautical Systems billions in projected earnings through a
controversial $23 billion arms deal with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a deal
now “under review” by the Biden administration.
President Joe Biden’s temporary halt to the U.S. arms deal and his decision to
remove the Yemeni Houthi rebels from the state department’s list of global
terrorist organizations have been touted as a harbinger of peace in Yemen,
where a civil war that erupted during Barack Obama’s second term in office has
persisted and expanded to include regional powers.
The Saudi-led coalition of Arab states has dropped more than 22,000 bombs in
Yemen since its intervention in 2015 and has contributed to the death of nearly
a quarter of a million people since the conflict began. American weapons
systems have played a key role in the genocidal war that has produced millions
of war refugees in what can only be characterized as the greatest human tragedy
of the 21st century.
As the American arms industry rides a wave of record sales to the Saudi regime
and the Middle East in general, a pause to the relentless advance of the
biggest war economy on the planet strikes one as a political strategy, widely
telegraphed by Biden even before he became the Democratic nominee. As soon as
the former vice president was projected as the winner of the 2020 election,
Saudi Arabia went on a lobbyist hiring spree to prepare for what the regime led
by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman knew was coming.
Nevertheless, a bleaker reality may be conspiring to quash the designs of
American arms dealers. Recent developments in the war are increasingly pointing
to the possibility that Biden’s ostensible moves towards peace may simply be an
attempt to control the narrative and save face around what is looking like yet
another defeat in the long-running American-sponsored global “war on terror”
and, more awkwardly, an attempt to protect the defense industry from a
spectacular debacle.
The high stakes of defeat
Major advances by Houthi forces on the strategically vital oil and gas hub of
Marib last week have forced Saudi Arabia to offer a ceasefire agreement to the
rebels. The offer came on Monday, after the rebel army seized Mount Hilan,
threatening the Yemeni military’s first line of defense and causing a
disruption in global energy prices.
The ceasefire proposal includes collecting “taxes, customs and other fees
generated” by oil imports in the Red Sea port of Hodeida in a joint account
that would be accessible to the Houthis. Further evidence that the Saudi-led
coalition finds itself with their backs against the wall is the partial
loosening of the oil blockade, as four fuel ships were given the go-ahead to
dock at Hodeida on Wednesday.
The bid for a truce came two days after Saudi Coalition-manned American
warplanes carried out airstrikes against Houthi targets in Marib, with Saudi
media claiming heavy losses on the side of the rebel forces. But the partial
lifting of the blockade by the Saudi Coalition and the UN-backed Yemeni
government indicates that it is the Houthis who are making headway.
The fall of Marib would mean Houthi control of one of the key production
centers of natural gas in Yemen — one that supplies the entire country — as
well as oil fields owned by Saudi Arabia’s Aramco. Given that the Houthis
already control most of Yemen’s urban centers, taking Marib would likely tilt
the momentum irreversibly in the Houthis’ favor.
Yemen's Marib Offensive Born of Desperation, with No Sign Saudis/US Will Cease
Their War
Having all but given up on the prospect of peace in Yemen under the Biden
admin, the Houthis are betting on retaking Marib from Saudi forces.
MintPress News | Ahmed Abdulkareem | Mar 12
In light of the Houthis’ bolstered position in the conflict, Biden’s decision
to remove them from the list of global terrorist organizations, while overtly
maintaining continued U.S. support for Saudi Arabia’s “security” needs could
very well be a signal that Washington has tacitly admitted that their proxy war
in Yemen is not yielding the desired results. Meanwhile, in a joint statement,
last week as preparations for Friday’s major attack on Marib were in the
offing, Western governments attempted to make a show of strength in the press
in lieu of actual results on the battlefield.
“We, the governments of France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the
United States of America,” said the statement, “condemn the sustained Houthi
offensive on the Yemeni city of Marib and the major escalation of attacks the
Houthis have conducted and claimed against Saudi Arabia.”
Who will think of the arms dealer?
Curiously, most of the other members who came together to condemn the Houthis’
advance on Marib have also publicly halted their own arms trade with Saudi
Arabia or its coalition forces, in one way or another. Nonetheless, sub-surface
efforts continue to bolster Saudi security in the region.
France, which last week voted to end the sale of security equipment “that fuels
conflict in Yemen,” was nevertheless second behind the U.S. in arms exports to
Saudi Arabia, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research
Institute (SIPRI), and reports have surfaced of French private mercenary
companies training Saudi soldiers in Yemen. Meanwhile, the UK authorized a $1.9
billion arms deal after a ban imposed by a court ruling in 2019 had expired.
The arms trade report released on March 15 by SIPRI shows that, between 2016
and 2020, arms exports to the Middle East grew by a staggering 25% — an
increase led by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar.
According to an Open Secrets report, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is the
second-biggest buyer of U.S. arms, with $26 billion in sales reported to
Congress since 2017. Riyadh is also the sixth largest spender by any foreign
lobbying operation in the U.S., racking up nearly $108 million in U.S.
influence operations over the last five years.
In addition, the top four defense contractors that count the kingdom as one of
their best clients – F-35 fighter jet-maker Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, General
Dynamics and Boeing – also grace the top five defense-related companies that
spend the most on wooing Washington lawmakers, with approximately $40 million
spent among them in 2020 alone.
Despite the hold announced by the Biden administration, arms sales have not
been entirely stopped. On February 17, Biden approved a $200 million arms sale
to Egypt, which has pledged its support for the Saudi-led coalition against the
Houthi rebels and has been taking in thousands of refugees from the war-torn
area since 2015.
Seller beware
Since December 2020, when most of the world was confident Joe Biden would be
the next president of the United States, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia added a
few new lobbying organizations to its payroll. According to CNBC, one of the
most recent contracts was signed with a “full-service grassroots mobilization,
public affairs and public relations consulting firm” called Arena Strategy
Group through the Larson Shannahan Slifka Group, or LS2group, which signed a
$1.5 million retainer agreement with the Kingdom in 2019.
Both organizations have deep ties to the Republican Party. Their services —
which will revolve around “informing the public, government officials, and the
media about the importance of fostering and promoting strong relations between
the United States and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia” — were mainly sought to
influence the Republican-controlled Congress on behalf of Saudi interests.
The arms trade lobby, for its part, is coming off substantial victories from
the previous administration — which, among other things, loosened drone export
laws, directly benefiting companies like General Atomics Aeronautical Systems
and its pending $3 billion drone purchase order, which is part of the $23
billion arms deal currently on hold.
Squire Patton Boggs (“a perennial K Street powerhouse,” per Open Secrets), Akin
Gump, and American Defense International are three of the top defense industry
lobbying firms that alternate between representing defense contractors like
Raytheon, General Dynamics and Northrop Grumman, and their weapons systems
manufacturers’ biggest clients in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, to push through
legislation and secure government contracts their customers require.
Recruited, Arrested, On Trial: Yemeni Spies Tell of Their Reluctant Work for
CIA, MI6
Yemen: The CIA and MI6 have recruited hundreds of impoverished Yemenis to work
as spies with the promise of money and even passports.
MintPress News | Ahmed Abdulkareem | Mar 19
But, perhaps there is a much more mundane reason why all these
multi-billion-dollar contracts are on hold and it’s that the potential buyers
simply can’t – or won’t – pay for the merchandise.
Despite all the glamour and fantastical riches ascribed to the Saudi royal
family, their wealth is quite literally all in one basket. If the price of oil
plummets, so does the ability of the Saudi princes to close billion-dollar
weapons deals. In 2017, when the colossal $110 billion arms deal was made
between the Trump administration and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, thanks to the
work of Squire Patton Boggs, only $14.5 billion had been “earned” one year
later.
The reality is that such deals are hardly worth the name. They are mostly
comprised of letters of intent and proposals, which prospective buyers may or
may not take up. In the case of American client states, like Saudi Arabia,
there are ways to make them loosen the purse strings, but when these strings
are tied to resources like oil extracted out of a foreign country teeming with
armed groups intent on asserting their sovereignty, deals have a tendency to
fall through.
However, it would be naïve to believe that the biggest war economy in the world
would turn back and leave tens of billions of dollars on the table. If Saudi
Arabia or its coalition partners can’t come up with the cash, history has shown
that the Military Industrial Complex would not shy away from the chance to
bring others to the negotiating table and expand the war to do so.
