Trump the Predictable
Published on
Friday, December 02, 2016
by
Foreign Policy In Focus
Trump the Predictable
Without exception, Trump's foreign policy picks are members of the far
right: aggressive, Islamophobic, and contemptuous of diplomacy
by
John Feffer
Donald Trump's pick for national security advisor, Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn.
"Taken collectively," writes John Feffer, "Trump's foreign policy picks are
more martial even than the Vulcans." (Photo: Gage Skidmore/flickr/cc)
Shortly after taking office in 1969, President Richard Nixon devised his
madman theory. It was the height of the Vietnam War, and Nixon believed
that he could end the conflict. It just required a bit of unpredictability.
I want the North Vietnamese to believe Ive reached the point where I might
do anything to stop the war, Nixon told his chief of staff H.R. Haldeman.
Well just slip the word to them that, for Gods sake, you know Nixon is
obsessed about Communists. We cant restrain him when hes angry and he
has his hand on the nuclear button.
To convey this message that Nixon was a violent, obsessed leader, he and his
national security advisor, Henry Kissinger, launched a secret bombing
campaign in Cambodia. Many people in Southeast Asia and in the United
States were convinced that Nixon was indeed a violent, unpredictable man.
But the North Vietnamese didnt back down, and the United States eventually
had to negotiate a face-saving treaty and pull out.
Donald Trump has adopted his own madman theory. Throughout his campaign,
he insisted that any potential negotiating partner ally or adversary
must be left guessing. Toward that end, he refused to rule out the potential
use of nuclear weapons, even in Europe. We, as a nation, need to be more
unpredictable, he declared, and millions of people shuddered to think that
his hand might one day on the nuclear button.
Trump tried to present this unpredictability as the philosophy that made him
a successful businessman (bankruptcies aside). But the plain truth was that,
when he didnt know an answer to a question or have a ready plan of action,
he covered his butt by pretending to possess a secret approach that would
self-destruct if revealed. It sounded like a movie spoof. Mission
Unpredictable: Trumps Rogue Nation.
Unpredictability wasnt just a pose. It was fundamental to Trumps style.
His late-night tweets, his bursts of anger during the presidential debates,
his flip-flops on issues: these were all characteristic of a non-politician,
indeed an anti-politician.
Pundits chided him for his lack of impulse control, his failure to
self-censor, his impetuosity. But it was fundamental to his appeal, his very
authenticity. His supporters didnt know what a Trump presidency would
look like exactly. But they were willing to take a chance. They voted in the
same way that they might put a coin into a one-armed bandit. They knew the
odds were stacked against them, but they were stilling hoping for a big
payout.
In the aftermath of the election, itself an exemplar of unpredictability,
Trump has again attempted to keep his audience guessing. He was
presidential in his acceptance speech. He had a cordial sit-down with
President Obama. He lay off the demonization of Hillary Clinton. He walked
back some of his more extreme campaign pronouncements on climate change, the
Iran deal, and waterboarding. He reached out to some unexpected candidates
Mitt Romney, Tulsi Gabbard for cabinet positions.
Dont be fooled by these latest manifestations of unpredictability. In
fact, Trump has always been the most predictable of men.
He wants power. He is ruthless and vulgar. And he will do whatever it takes
to win. Its not difficult to predict the kind of foreign policy he will
attempt once in office. Trump will try to grab the world by the crotch.
Unfortunately, theres no law against sexual harassment of the planet.
The Company He Keeps
Nothing defines Trumps predictability more than the choices for his foreign
policy team. They are, without exception, members of the far right:
aggressive, Islamophobic, and contemptuous of diplomacy. Trump emphasized
these themes in his campaign, and his appointments so far are entirely
consistent with his rhetoric. And yet some anti-war advocates are still
trying to make the case that Trump is a net gain for world peace. Talk about
a madman theory.
The United States, guided by its new foreign policy elite, will be a
reflection of its chief executive: assaultive and unscrupulous. The
best-case scenario is that Trumps team will be incompetent, their reach
exceeding their grasp. The worst-case scenarios are positively dystopian.
In the George W. Bush administration, the foreign policy team was dominated
by the Vulcans who advised the neophyte president on how to look at the
world. Within this elite circle, some moderating influences emerged first
Vulcan fellow traveler Colin Powell, then Vulcan insider Condoleezza Rice.
They possessed a modicum of realism. Powell tried to persuade Bush not to
invade Iraq (but then, like a loyal soldier, dutifully supported the
invasion). Rice would be responsible for such initiatives as engaging North
Korea through the Six Party Talks.
The overall failure of these somewhat wiser counsels to have any real impact
on the Bush foreign policy speaks to the naiveté of those who favor
cooperating with the Trump administration.
Taken collectively, Trumps foreign policy picks are more martial even than
the Vulcans. Mike Flynn, the potential national security advisor, wants to
push regime change in Iran and is frankly delusional when it comes to Islam.
Mike Pompeo, the potential head of the CIA, wants more surveillance, was
sorry to see CIA black sites shuttered, and was the tip of the spear
during the congressional attack on Hillary Clintons handling of the
Benghazi affair (if you thought the politicization of intelligence was bad
during the Bush years, wait until Pompeo is in charge).
John Bolton, Rudy Giuliani, Tom Cotton: These potential picks are ideologues
who will tear through the international community like a tank at a tea
party. The best that can be said about any of the foreign policy appointees
so far is that they know nothing: South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, the
potential ambassador to the UN, has zero foreign policy experience (unless,
like some Trump supporters, you believe that the South is actually an
independent state).
In place of the evil genius of Dick Cheney, theres Steve Bannon, the
administrations chief strategist. From his perch at Breitbart News, Bannon
has pushed a racist and anti-Semitic agenda whether he himself is either
of those things is irrelevant.
Among the many malign policies he will advance, the most disturbing will be
the war on Islam. The Trump administration will not play favorites it will
go after both Sunni (Islamic State, Hamas) and Shia (Iran, Hezbollah) in
waging a larger civilizational campaign.
The administration might link arms on a temporary basis with strong-arm
leaders Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in Egypt, Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey, or
the more conservative Sunni politicians of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain but
those will just be tactical alliances to be discarded as Judgment Day
approaches. They dont want to be distracted by a cold war with Russia, for
Putin is a potential Christian ally. Some on Team Trump, like Mike Flynn,
even believe against all evidence and common sense that China and North
Korea are aligned with the forces of Islam. This 21st-century crusade will
serve as the ideological North Star for the Trump administrations foreign
policy much as anti-Communism functioned for its predecessors.
Mitt Romney as secretary of state? Tulsi Gabbard as secretary of defense?
Dream on. Trump is merely gesturing in the direction of unpredictability.
Romney is no moderate, while Gabbard would be merely ornamental. In the
casino world of Donald Trump, the numbers are always predictable in the end,
and they always favor the house. In this case, the house tilts to the
extreme right.
Calm Down?
Tom Hanks, a gifted actor but anodyne political commentator, said after the
elections: We are going to be all right. America has been in worse places
than we are at right now.
We, white man?
Sure, well-paid Hollywood liberals dont have to worry about the
consequences of the elections. Many communities in the United States,
however, are justifiably concerned about what will happen to them on January
21, 2017. People with medical coverage through the Affordable Care Act face
an uncertain future. Immigrants, documented as well as undocumented, are
worried about their status. Muslims, people of color, and the LGBT community
are all terrified by the dramatic spike in hate crimes in the first 10 days
after the election.
Then theres the larger world, which will decidedly not be all right. Human
rights activists are anxious about the deals Trump will make with autocrats.
The EU is worried about all the future Brexits Frexit, Czexit, Nexit
that Trump will encourage. Theres the unraveling of the nuclear deal with
Iran and the détente with Cuba. Theres the possibility of war with China,
starting with trade and moving on from there. And if that werent bad
enough, the next four years will be critical ones for arresting climate
change, except that Donald Trump will be trying to get every last bit of
coal, oil, and natural gas out of the ground.
Yeah, sure, American has gone through difficult times in the past. Donald
Trump is an unpredictable fellow. Its only four years.
But its not Donald Trumps unpredictability Im worried about. Its his
very disturbing predictability. For Trump, the presidency will be business
as usual. The past is prelude, so its really not that difficult to predict
the arc of this story.
© 2016 Foreign Policy In Focus
John Feffer
John Feffer is the co-director of Foreign Policy In Focus at the Institute
for Policy Studies in Washington, DC. He is the author of several books and
numerous articles. His dystopian novel, Splinterlands, a Dispatch Books
original (with Haymarket Books), will be published on December 6th He has
been an Open Society Foundation Fellow and a PanTech fellow in Korean
Studies at Stanford University. He is a former associate editor of World
Policy Journal. He has worked as an international affairs representative in
Eastern Europe and East Asia for the American Friends Service Committee. His
website is: www.johnfeffer.com
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Trump the Predictable
Published on
Friday, December 02, 2016
by
Foreign Policy In Focus
Trump the Predictable
Without exception, Trump's foreign policy picks are members of the far
right: aggressive, Islamophobic, and contemptuous of diplomacy
by
John Feffer
12 Comments
Donald Trump's pick for national security advisor, Lt. Gen. Michael
Flynn. "Taken collectively," writes John Feffer, "Trump's foreign policy
picks are more martial even than the Vulcans." (Photo: Gage
Skidmore/flickr/cc)
Shortly after taking office in 1969, President Richard Nixon devised
his madman theory. It was the height of the Vietnam War, and Nixon
believed that he could end the conflict. It just required a bit of
unpredictability.
I want the North Vietnamese to believe Ive reached the point where
I might do anything to stop the war, Nixon told his chief of staff H.R.
Haldeman. Well just slip the word to them that, for Gods sake, you know
Nixon is obsessed about Communists. We cant restrain him when hes angry
and he has his hand on the nuclear button.
To convey this message that Nixon was a violent, obsessed leader, he
and his national security advisor, Henry Kissinger, launched a secret
bombing campaign in Cambodia. Many people in Southeast Asia and in the
United States were convinced that Nixon was indeed a violent,
unpredictable man. But the North Vietnamese didnt back down, and the United
States eventually had to negotiate a face-saving treaty and pull out.
Donald Trump has adopted his own madman theory. Throughout his
campaign, he insisted that any potential negotiating partner ally or
adversary must be left guessing. Toward that end, he refused to rule out
the potential use of nuclear weapons, even in Europe. We, as a nation, need
to be more unpredictable, he declared, and millions of people shuddered to
think that his hand might one day on the nuclear button.
Trump tried to present this unpredictability as the philosophy that made him
a successful businessman (bankruptcies aside). But the plain truth was that,
when he didnt know an answer to a question or have a ready plan of action,
he covered his butt by pretending to possess a secret approach that would
self-destruct if revealed. It sounded like a movie spoof. Mission
Unpredictable: Trumps Rogue Nation.
Unpredictability wasnt just a pose. It was fundamental to Trumps style.
His late-night tweets, his bursts of anger during the presidential debates,
his flip-flops on issues: these were all characteristic of a non-politician,
indeed an anti-politician.
Pundits chided him for his lack of impulse control, his failure to
self-censor, his impetuosity. But it was fundamental to his appeal, his very
authenticity. His supporters didnt know what a Trump presidency would
look like exactly. But they were willing to take a chance. They voted in the
same way that they might put a coin into a one-armed bandit. They knew the
odds were stacked against them, but they were stilling hoping for a big
payout.
In the aftermath of the election, itself an exemplar of unpredictability,
Trump has again attempted to keep his audience guessing. He was
presidential in his acceptance speech. He had a cordial sit-down with
President Obama. He lay off the demonization of Hillary Clinton. He walked
back some of his more extreme campaign pronouncements on climate change, the
Iran deal, and waterboarding. He reached out to some unexpected candidates
Mitt Romney, Tulsi Gabbard for cabinet positions.
Dont be fooled by these latest manifestations of unpredictability. In
fact, Trump has always been the most predictable of men.
He wants power. He is ruthless and vulgar. And he will do whatever it takes
to win. Its not difficult to predict the kind of foreign policy he will
attempt once in office. Trump will try to grab the world by the crotch.
Unfortunately, theres no law against sexual harassment of the planet.
The Company He Keeps
Nothing defines Trumps predictability more than the choices for his foreign
policy team. They are, without exception, members of the far right:
aggressive, Islamophobic, and contemptuous of diplomacy. Trump emphasized
these themes in his campaign, and his appointments so far are entirely
consistent with his rhetoric. And yet some anti-war advocates are still
trying to make the case that Trump is a net gain for world peace. Talk about
a madman theory.
The United States, guided by its new foreign policy elite, will be a
reflection of its chief executive: assaultive and unscrupulous. The
best-case scenario is that Trumps team will be incompetent, their reach
exceeding their grasp. The worst-case scenarios are positively dystopian.
In the George W. Bush administration, the foreign policy team was dominated
by the Vulcans who advised the neophyte president on how to look at the
world. Within this elite circle, some moderating influences emerged first
Vulcan fellow traveler Colin Powell, then Vulcan insider Condoleezza Rice.
They possessed a modicum of realism. Powell tried to persuade Bush not to
invade Iraq (but then, like a loyal soldier, dutifully supported the
invasion). Rice would be responsible for such initiatives as engaging North
Korea through the Six Party Talks.
The overall failure of these somewhat wiser counsels to have any real impact
on the Bush foreign policy speaks to the naiveté of those who favor
cooperating with the Trump administration.
Taken collectively, Trumps foreign policy picks are more martial even than
the Vulcans. Mike Flynn, the potential national security advisor, wants to
push regime change in Iran and is frankly delusional when it comes to Islam.
Mike Pompeo, the potential head of the CIA, wants more surveillance, was
sorry to see CIA black sites shuttered, and was the tip of the spear
during the congressional attack on Hillary Clintons handling of the
Benghazi affair (if you thought the politicization of intelligence was bad
during the Bush years, wait until Pompeo is in charge).
John Bolton, Rudy Giuliani, Tom Cotton: These potential picks are ideologues
who will tear through the international community like a tank at a tea
party. The best that can be said about any of the foreign policy appointees
so far is that they know nothing: South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, the
potential ambassador to the UN, has zero foreign policy experience (unless,
like some Trump supporters, you believe that the South is actually an
independent state).
In place of the evil genius of Dick Cheney, theres Steve Bannon, the
administrations chief strategist. From his perch at Breitbart News, Bannon
has pushed a racist and anti-Semitic agenda whether he himself is either
of those things is irrelevant.
Among the many malign policies he will advance, the most disturbing will be
the war on Islam. The Trump administration will not play favorites it will
go after both Sunni (Islamic State, Hamas) and Shia (Iran, Hezbollah) in
waging a larger civilizational campaign.
The administration might link arms on a temporary basis with strong-arm
leaders Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in Egypt, Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey, or
the more conservative Sunni politicians of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain but
those will just be tactical alliances to be discarded as Judgment Day
approaches. They dont want to be distracted by a cold war with Russia, for
Putin is a potential Christian ally. Some on Team Trump, like Mike Flynn,
even believe against all evidence and common sense that China and North
Korea are aligned with the forces of Islam. This 21st-century crusade will
serve as the ideological North Star for the Trump administrations foreign
policy much as anti-Communism functioned for its predecessors.
Mitt Romney as secretary of state? Tulsi Gabbard as secretary of defense?
Dream on. Trump is merely gesturing in the direction of unpredictability.
Romney is no moderate, while Gabbard would be merely ornamental. In the
casino world of Donald Trump, the numbers are always predictable in the end,
and they always favor the house. In this case, the house tilts to the
extreme right.
Calm Down?
Tom Hanks, a gifted actor but anodyne political commentator, said after the
elections: We are going to be all right. America has been in worse places
than we are at right now.
We, white man?
Sure, well-paid Hollywood liberals dont have to worry about the
consequences of the elections. Many communities in the United States,
however, are justifiably concerned about what will happen to them on January
21, 2017. People with medical coverage through the Affordable Care Act face
an uncertain future. Immigrants, documented as well as undocumented, are
worried about their status. Muslims, people of color, and the LGBT community
are all terrified by the dramatic spike in hate crimes in the first 10 days
after the election.
Then theres the larger world, which will decidedly not be all right. Human
rights activists are anxious about the deals Trump will make with autocrats.
The EU is worried about all the future Brexits Frexit, Czexit, Nexit
that Trump will encourage. Theres the unraveling of the nuclear deal with
Iran and the détente with Cuba. Theres the possibility of war with China,
starting with trade and moving on from there. And if that werent bad
enough, the next four years will be critical ones for arresting climate
change, except that Donald Trump will be trying to get every last bit of
coal, oil, and natural gas out of the ground.
Yeah, sure, American has gone through difficult times in the past. Donald
Trump is an unpredictable fellow. Its only four years.
But its not Donald Trumps unpredictability Im worried about. Its his
very disturbing predictability. For Trump, the presidency will be business
as usual. The past is prelude, so its really not that difficult to predict
the arc of this story.
© 2016 Foreign Policy In Focus
/author/john-feffer
/author/john-feffer/author/john-feffer
John Feffer is the co-director of Foreign Policy In Focus at the Institute
for Policy Studies in Washington, DC. He is the author of several books and
numerous articles. His dystopian novel, Splinterlands, a Dispatch Books
original (with Haymarket Books), will be published on December 6th He has
been an Open Society Foundation Fellow and a PanTech fellow in Korean
Studies at Stanford University. He is a former associate editor of World
Policy Journal. He has worked as an international affairs representative in
Eastern Europe and East Asia for the American Friends Service Committee. His
website is: www.johnfeffer.com
