Trump Admits That Easy Voting Would Defeat Republicans
By Juan Cole, Informed Comment
1 March 20
Colin Kalmbacher at Law&Crime surveys reactions to Trump's admission in an
interview on Fox News that a mail-in ballot program that made it possible
for the public to vote with ease and increased turnout would keep
Republicans from ever being elected again.
Voter suppression has not always been a purely Republican policy. The
Democratic Party, back before 1964, dominated the South, and whites during
the Jim Crow era systematically denied African-Americans the right to vote.
They used techniques like literacy tests. Since some African-Americans at
that time voted Republican, this was in part a way of maintaining the
American Apartheid, but it also functioned to make sure the Democratic Party
machine was not challenged. With the Nixon strategy of the 1970s, after the
Democrats passed the Civil Rights Act, Southern whites were largely enticed
into the Republican Party, which then turned around and began championing
voter suppression of African-Americans and other minorities. Evangelicals in
the latter part of the 20th century were about a quarter of the US
population, and they became enormously influential in the Republican Party.
The Nixon strategy was at first enormously successful for the GOP. From 1981
to 2008, Republicans had the White House 20 out of 28 years. But then the
party developed a problem. It had tied its fortunes to Southern whites and
to the evangelicals, along with its staple of the business classes.
The composition of a country's population changed over time, and generations
differ from one another in attitudes. The racist Nixon strategy is not
working any longer.
What has changed?
First, Hispanics are now 18 percent of the US population, up from about 6
percent in 1980. In order to win fairly, Republicans needed to gain a
significant proportion of that vote. The Bush's knew this, and cultivated
that constituency. George W. Bush typically attracted 40 percent of the
Hispanic vote. But the dominance of Evangelicals and xenophobic southern and
rural whites turned the party increasingly xenophobic and anti-immigrant.
(Most Hispanic Americans are not immigrants, but many whites coded them that
way). The increasingly vitriolic racism of the Tea Party and the Republican
base against Hispanics drove some of them out of the party. Trump only got
28 percent of the Hispanic vote, very substantially off from Bush's
percentages. His favorability ratings by late last fall had further fallen
among Hispanics to only 25 percent.
Then, Asian-Americans and Pacific Islanders now make up 6 percent of the US
population, up from 1.6 percent in 1980. They now comed to over 20 million
people. Many were conservative and business-oriented and the old Republican
Party had a shot at them. But the racism has also caused many of them to
flee. They heavily now favor the Democrats and they really don't like
Trump..
Further, according to Pew, white evangelicals as a proportion of the
population have plummeted from 23 percent in 2004 to only 16 percent today.
Pew finds that among white Protestants, evangelicals have retained their
proportion, but not in the general population (i.e. many fewer Americans
identify as Protestants or as religious at all). So white evangelicals could
help put Bush in the White House, but just don't have that kind of moxie any
more.
And another thing: the proportion of whites in the population has fallen to
only 60 percent from 75 percent in 2000. The number of counties that are
majority non-white is rising. So since some significant proportion of whites
vote Democratic, you can't get elected just with what's left of the white
vote. Trump got in only because a few tens of thousands of traditionally
Democratic whites in the Midwest switched to him because he said he'd bring
jobs back from China and because there was a significant fall-off in the
African-American vote, at least a point in Michigan, for instance.
So the lesson is that Republicans can now only win by poaching whites from
the Democrats and by suppressing the minority vote.
They succeeded in 2016 (and the lackluster campaign of Hillary Clinton
helped). But in the electoral college, Trump's victory was by the skin of
his teeth in three Midwestern states. The old saying attributed to circus
impresario P. T. Barnum is that "A sucker is born every minute." But the
opinion polling in Michigan, at least, does not support the notion that
white workers are likely to be suckered again.
So if Trump can't steal some white Democrats this time, that really does
leave only one hope, which is to find ways of preventing African-Americans,
Hispanics, and Asians from voting.
The Republican Party has obviously made some very bad choices. Gravitating
to the Neo-Fascist Breitbart crowd, the nativist crazies, the rapidly
declining evangelicals, and generally old white people has been stupid
policy. But it is in many ways Nixon's legacy. What worked in the 1980s may
not work in the 2020s. And if the numbers are any indication, the
Republicans could become a long-term minority in the near future, as there
were from 1931 until 1952.
The arc of history may or may not bend toward justice but it sure as hell
bends toward reality.
