The Impossible Presidency: Rouhani Caught in Cross-hairs of Trump, Iranian
Hardliners and Public Apathy
SHAHRAM AKBARZADEH
03/05/2020
Melbourne (Special to Informed Comment) - For the first time in the history
of the Islamic Republic of Iran the voter turn-out at the parliamentary
elections has fallen below the psychological threshold of 50%. According to
the Interior Ministry in charge of administering the elections, the national
participation rate was 42.5%. In the capital city Tehran the participation
was a shocking 25%. This is nothing short of a popular vote of no
confidence.
Despite their differences, the reformist and the hard-line leadership in
Iran consistently urged Iranians to take part in elections, presenting it as
a matter of national duty. On the eve of the February polls, the Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Khamenei pleaded with the voting public to participate in
the elections even if they did not like him, because the future of the
country depended on it. This was the most explicit acknowledgement of the
widening gap between the regime and the public, and an attempt to appeal to
patriotic instincts.
President Hassan Rouhani also referred to similar concepts of national pride
and unity to urge electoral participation. He also spoke about the bond
between the state leaders and the people that is renewed periodically at
elections. He insisted on the idea of the 'republic' as a pillar of the
Islamic Republic of Iran. The low participation rate and the election
results are a significant blow to the regime and to Rouhani.
The election delivered a landslide victory for hard liners. There is an
established correlation between high participation rates and the electoral
fortunes of the reformist faction in Iran. Low turn-out at the ballot boxes
hurts reformers. The reformist camp had a number of setbacks and
disappointments during President Rouhani's term in office which alienated
the reformist voting public. The sense of disillusionment with the capacity
of reformist and pragmatic leaders to bring change was overwhelming for the
majority of the voters.
President Rouhani came to office in 2013 with a popular mandate to bring
Iran back from the brink of collapse. His message of hope inspired the
public and allowed him to push through a historic nuclear deal with P5+1
(the five permanent members of UN Security Council and Germany). Despite the
excitement it generated, the nuclear deal failed to bring Iran out of
isolation. In 2018, President Donald Trump withdrew from the deal, snapped
back extensive sanctions on Iran by way of exerting 'maximum pressure' on
the regime and slapped secondary sanctions on any international company that
contravened US-imposed sanctions on Iran. This has brought the Iranian
economy back to the brink and has resulted in periodic public displays of
outrage and frustration.
Iran is more isolated under Rouhani than his firebrand predecessor President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Tensions in the Persian Gulf with the US Navy, the US
killing of commander Ghasem Soleimani and Iran's missile attack on a US base
in Iraq have boxed Rouhani in a position of confrontation with the United
States. His hard-line critics had long criticised Rouhani's policy as
misguided and 'weak' in relation to the United States and see President
Trump's hostile posturing on Iran as vindicating that view.
President Rouhani has also failed to address rampant corruption and
mismanagement, key campaign topics against his predecessor's administration.
Politically, Rouhani has spoken regularly about moderation and tolerating
diversity of views, but the political scene in Iran did not witness an
opening up during his presidency. It is not surprising that voters in his
natural electoral base have become disillusioned with his promises and his
ability to deliver. This erosion of confidence in Rouhani is symptomatic of
the disarray in the reformist camp and evaporating hopes of improving
conditions by working within the system.
President Rouhani is now in the unenviable position of working with a
hostile parliament. He is cornered internally and externally. His hard-line
critics blame him for putting his trust in the good will of the United
States and making Iran look weak, while Washington and its regional allies
treat him with contempt. There seems no room left for Rouhani to regain the
posture of a statesman and salvage his legacy. He is unlikely to be able to
take any major foreign policy initiative in his last year in office, which
does not bode well for Iran's behaviour in the region. Rouhani has been
reduced to a caretaker president until the next presidential election in
2021, which in all likelihood will bring a hard-liner into office.
The Iranian leadership repeatedly urged for mass participation at the
parliamentary elections, calling it a patriotic and Islamic duty and a show
of unity in the face of US 'maximum pressure'. The record low turn-out
delivered a major blow to the regime and put on public display the
significant disconnect between the public and the ruling regime.
