Russians Vote on Amendments to the Constitution
June 30, 2020
In addition to the controversy over enhanced presidential powers, Natylie
Baldwin covers other significant proposals now in front of voters.
Plenary session of the State Duma on amendments to the Russian Federation
Constitution, March 10, 2020, Moscow. (President of Russia)
By Natylie Baldwin
Special to Consortium News
Voting in Russia began on Friday and will conclude Wednesday on a referendum
over a series of constitutional changes that would enhance the powers of the
presidency, including, most controversially, allowing President Vladimir
Putin to potentially remain in office for 12 more years beyond the end of
his term limit in 2024.
There is more to the proposed changes, however, that bear looking at.
In mid-January, Putin announced his proposals during his annual address to
the Federal Assembly. Several days later, he submitted the initial draft law
to the Duma, Russia's lower house.
The first few paragraphs reiterated some of the changes he outlined in his
speech, including restrictions for individuals running for president of
Russia and other major federal offices such as prime minister, cabinet
members, parliamentarians, regional governors and judges.
These include candidates' restrictions on dual citizenship and residency
and, for the president, a requirement of continuous residency in Russia for
at least 25 years. As others have pointed out, these rules effectively
prohibit the children of the current political class from running for major
office in Russia since most of them have studied and/or lived in the U.S. or
Europe and have therefore had long-term residency in a foreign country.
Another amendment will require that Russia's constitution take precedence
over international law if the two are in conflict. Putin's draft law stated:
To protect national sovereignty, it is proposed in the draft law that the
decisions of interstate bodies based on the provisions of international
treaties signed by the Russian Federation shall not be implemented in Russia
if their interpretation contradicts the Constitution of the Russian
Federation.
With respect to the expanded responsibilities of the parliament - consisting
of the Federation Council (upper chamber) and the Duma (lower chamber) - the
draft law summary states:
To make interaction between the representative and executive branches of
power more effective, to strengthen the role of the State Duma and
parliamentary parties, as well as to enhance the responsibility of members
of the Government, it has been proposed that the Constitutional provisions
on the procedure for appointing the Prime Minister and deputy prime
ministers of Russia be amended to stipulate that candidates for these posts
are appointed by the President following their approval by the State Duma.
Interestingly, there is some debate on what kind of qualitative change this
represents. Professor Paul Robinson has looked at the full Russian draft
submissions and made some comparisons between what the current
constitutional language is and what it will be changed to. It appears to
amount to a distinction without a difference:
"The words that I have emphasized in the quotation . clarify the situation:
'the name of the candidate for prime minister will be submitted 'to the
State Duma by the President of the Russian Federation.' In other words,
everything will remain as it was, only now the Duma 'confirms' the candidate
rather than gives its 'consent'."
A Presidential Republic
Russian President Vladimir Putin, March 2020. (President of Russia)
Putin emphasized in his January address, and reiterated in subsequent
remarks, that though there may be room to expand some of the parliament's
authority, it is appropriate for Russia to remain a presidential republic
and not a parliamentary republic:
"I think that Russia, with its vast territory, with many faiths, with a
large number of nations, peoples, nationalities living in the country - you
can't even count, someone says 160, someone 190, you know, needs strong
presidential power."
The draft law also gives the Federation Council authority to investigate and
remove judges for incompetence or corruption if the president recommends it:
"In addition, the Federation Council is to have the power to terminate the
powers of judges of the Constitutional Court and the Supreme Court of
Russia, the judges of the courts of cassation and appeal upon the
recommendation of the President of Russia, if they are found guilty of acts
that defame the honour and dignity of judges, as well as in other cases
described in the federal legislation according to which the said persons can
no longer perform their duties."
Furthermore, the draft law allows the Constitutional Court to review
proposed legislation for constitutionality prior to passage into law:
"The role of the Constitutional Court is to be strengthened by giving it the
power to analyse, at the request of the President of Russia, compliance with
the Constitution of laws adopted by the two houses of the Federal Assembly
before they are signed by the President."
As promised the draft law codifies that the state is responsible for
providing basic social justice measures:
"To protect the social rights of citizens and ensure equal opportunities for
them throughout the country, Article 75 of the Constitution is to be
complemented with provisions setting forth the minimum wage in the amount
not lower than the subsistence minimum of the economically active population
throughout the country, guaranteeing the indexation of pensions, social
benefits and other social payments, and setting out the basic principles of
nationwide retirement benefits."
Russia currently has a minimum wage but this will codify into the
constitution that the minimum wage must be indexed to reflect the current
minimum cost of living; in other words, it cannot be below the recognized
poverty line.
Another change involves the State Council, which is currently an advisory
body to the president to coordinate different parts of government and advise
on critical issues. It is now to become an official executive body.
Bloomberg described the changes as follows:
"At the moment, that body is a gathering of regional and national leaders
headed by Putin but with largely ceremonial powers. Under the proposed
changes, the Council's role would for the first time be written into the
constitution and a special federal law.
"The State Council would have the power to 'set the main directions of the
domestic and foreign policy of the Russian Federation and the priority areas
of socio-economic development,' according to the draft. The body would be
formed by the president, although the proposed amendments give no indication
how that process would take place."
Prior to the Tereshkova Amendment (discussed below), there was speculation
that Putin would likely keep a role as the head of this body after stepping
down from the presidency in 2024. The Duma unanimously approved these
changes on Jan. 23.
Hundreds of Proposals Received
The constitutional committee Putin had appointed to consider additional
possible amendments and changes to the Russian constitution reportedly
received hundreds of proposals on a range of issues, from both the public
and those in government. The deadline for submission of those proposals was
March 2. On that date, several additional proposed constitutional amendments
were submitted by Putin
These new proposals, which were accepted by the Duma and are included in
the national vote underway on the whole package of constitutional reforms,
were obviously intended to placate certain groups, including lower-income
Russians; those advocating Russian national independence; and the Orthodox
Church, whose stance on certain cultural issues reflects the attitude of
many Russians.
These proposed amendments include: invoking God in the document; a
prohibition on the ceding of any Russian territory; defining marriage as
between a man and a woman; recognition of the Russian Federation as the
successor state to the Soviet Union (thereby inheriting the Soviet Union's
victory in World War II), and recognition of Russian peoples as founders of
the state.
Ending Presidential Term Limit
Valentina Tereshkova with South Korean President Moon Jae-in in the Russian
State Duma, 2018. (duma.gov.ru, Wikimedia Commons)
On March 10, a further development garnered even more attention when
parliamentarian Valentina Tereshkova, the first Soviet woman in space,
proposed that the "clock be reset to zero" on presidential terms at 2024.
That would mean that Putin would be able to run again in 2024 and serve what
would be the new constitutional limit of two total terms.
This suggestion seemed to throw the parliament into confusion and Putin
subsequently made an unscheduled appearance at the Duma to address the
issue. He then said that resetting the clock on presidential terms was
possible, but would have to be approved by both the Constitutional Court and
the Russian people when they voted. The Constitutional Court subsequently
ruled that this move was acceptable.
Many observers thought this turn of events seemed staged. Though polls
indicate that the package of amendments will likely pass the vote, there are
a number of Russians who are disappointed at the ham-handed way in which
this loophole for Putin to possibly remain in power is being forced into
existence.
Gennady Zyuganov, the head of the Communist Party, which - together with the
right-wing nationalist LDPR Party comprise the largest opposition in the
country - has publicly come out against the amendments, stating that they
are "disappointing" and "depressing." He claimed none of the amendments
offered by the Communists were accepted and that the process had been
rushed.
Pandemic Postponement
Social distancing signs in the Moscow Metro, April 1, 2020. (Mos.ru, CC BY
4.0, Wikimedia Commons)
Because of the pandemic, the popular vote underway was rescheduled by decree
from April 22 - allowing staggered voting as well as online and outdoor
options at some locations in light of the Covid-19 crisis.
In late January, Putin's press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, confirmed that a
popular vote by the Russian citizenry would represent the final word on the
amendments: "We primarily don't view this vote as just a simple formality.
If people believe that it is not expedient [to introduce amendments to the
constitution] then that's what it is. It is not a formality, it is indeed a
vote for or against."
The vote is not an actual referendum and there is nothing that legally
requires the government to honor a popular decision to reject the changes if
they were to be voted down - though it would be a PR disaster in terms of
legitimacy.
The Kremlin took active steps to encourage the public to vote in favor,
including airing a film on June 21 on state television, "Russia. Kremlin.
Putin," celebrating Putin's achievements on the 20th anniversary of his
leadership andproviding various incentives to get people to vote, such as
food and vouchers that can be exchanged for various goods and services.
As for the intrigue regarding whether Putin will actually run again in 2024,
it makes strategic sense that Putin may want to keep the political class
guessing as to what exactly he's going to do and when he exactly is going to
do it to temper the jockeying for power he knows will intensify if he's
perceived as a leader with one foot out the door. Putin alluded to this
recently:
"They [Russian officials] need to work rather than search for successors. .
You know, I'll say absolutely frankly now: if this does not happen [passing
a respective constitutional amendment] then in some two years, I know this
from my own experience, instead of a normal rhythmical work at many levels
of power they will start searching for potential successors."
In my perusal of Russian history, I've noted that whenever leaders wanted to
institute reforms, they inevitably unleashed forces they couldn't totally
control with unintended consequences. Russia analyst Gordon Hahn writes:
"The debate over systemic changes could provoke a split with the ruling
elite. Such a split could revolve around disagreements between those who
would prefer Putin stay at least until 2024 and take up a serious office or
several offices under a new 'caretaker' president, and those who would
prefer a more rapid departure, perhaps even with mid-term presidential
elections and a minimal or no role for Putin under the next president."
Putin may be keeping his options open in case those unintended consequences
become too destabilizing.
That said, it seems that Putin remaining in power past 2024 would be a
mistake on several levels, including handing his Western critics, who
already call him a dictator, a cudgel to keep hitting him with. On the other
hand, Putin may feel the threats against Russia emanating from Washington
are so great that he cannot trust anyone else to lead the country through a
perilous time.
However impressive a job Putin has done pulling Russia up from a failed
state to a country with a decent standard of living and a diplomatic force
on the world stage, it may ultimately be a weakness to keep focusing on only
one man's talents and savvy. It might be time for Putin to be grooming a
successor whom voters might chose to continue the path Putin has set them
on. New leadership can take over and continue moving Russia forward, with
Putin possibly playing a role as wise elder during the transition.
Natylie Baldwin is author of "The View from Moscow: Understanding Russia and
U.S.-Russia Relations," forthcoming in April. She is co-author of "Ukraine:
Zbig's Grand Chessboard & How the West Was Checkmated." She has traveled
throughout western Russia since 2015 and has written several articles based
on her conversations and interviews with a cross-section of Russians. She
blogs at natyliesbaldwin.com.
