So much for global warming.
Miriam
Pipeline or a Pipedream: A Conflict is Brewing Between Israel and Turkey over
Natural Gas
Considering the massive deposits of natural gas needed to fuel struggling
European markets, it is almost certain that Mediterranean natural gas will
eventually become a major source of political disputes, if not all out war.
by Ramzy Baroud
January 28th, 2020
By Ramzy Baroud
assive natural gas discoveries off the eastern coast of Israel and Palestine is
slated to make Tel Aviv a regional energy hub. Whether Israel will be able to
translate positive indicators of the largely untapped gas reserves into actual
economic and strategic wealth is yet to be seen.
What is certain, however, is that the Middle East is already in the throes of a
major geostrategic war, which has the potential of becoming an actual military
confrontation.
Unsurprisingly, Israel is at the heart of this growing conflict.
“Last week, we started to stream gas to Egypt. We turned Israel into an energy
superpower,” Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, bragged during a
cabinet meeting on January 19.
Netanyahu’s self-congratulating remarks came on the heels of some exciting
financial news for the embattled Prime Minister, as both Jordan and Egypt are
now Tel Aviv’s clients, receiving billions of cubic meters of Israeli gas.
For Netanyahu, pumping Israeli gas to two neighboring Arab countries
constitutes more than just economic and political advantages – it is a huge
personal boost. The Israeli leader is trying to convince the public to vote for
him in yet another general election in March, while pleading to Israel’s
political elite to give him immunity so that he can stay out of prison for
various corruption charges.
For years, Israel has been exploiting the discovery of massive deposits of
natural gas from the Leviathan and Tamar fields – located nearly 125 km and 80
km west of Haifa respectively – to reconstruct regional alliances and to
redefine its geopolitical centrality to Europe.
The Israeli strategy, however, has already created potentials for conflict in
an already unstable region, expanding the power play to include Cyprus, Greece,
France, Italy, and Libya, as well as Egypt, Turkey, Lebanon, and Russia.
On January 2, Netanyahu was in Athens signing a gas pipeline deal, alongside
Greek Prime Minister, Kyriako Mitotakis, and Cyprus President, Nicos
Anastasiades.
The EastMed pipeline is projected to travel from Israel to Cyprus, to Greece
and, ultimately, to Italy, thus transporting eastern Mediterranean gas directly
to the heart of Europe.
A few years ago, this scenario seemed unthinkable, as Israel has, in fact,
imported much of its natural gas from neighboring Egypt.
Israel’s Tamar field partly rectified Israel’s reliance on imported gas when it
began production in 2003. Shortly after, Israel struck gas again, this time
with far greater potential, in the massive Leviathan field. On December 31,
2019, Leviathan began pumping gas for the first time.
Leviathan is located in the Mediterranean Sea’s Levantine Basin, a region that
is rich with hydrocarbons.
“Leviathan is estimated to hold over 21 trillion cubic feet of natural
gas—enough to fill Israeli power-generation needs for the next 40 years, while
still leaving an ample supply for export,” wrote Frank Musmar in the BESA
Center for Strategic Studies.
Egypt’s share of Israeli gas – 85 billion cubic meters (bcm), with an estimated
cost of $19.5 billion – is acquired through the private Egyptian entity
Dolphinus Holdings. The Jordanian deal was signed between the country’s
national electricity company NEPCO, and American firm, Noble Energy, which owns
a 45% stake in the Israeli project.
Jordanians have been protesting Israel’s gas deal en-masse, as they view
economic cooperation between their country and Israel as an act of
normalization, especially as Tel Aviv continues to occupy and oppress
Palestinians.
The echoes of the popular protests have reached the Jordanian parliament which,
on January 19, unanimously voted in favor of a law to ban gas imports from
Israel.
Israel is diversifying beyond exerting regional economic dominance to becoming
a big player on the international geopolitical stage as well. The EastMed
pipeline project, estimated at €6bn, is expected to cover 10% of Europe’s
overall need for natural gas. This is where things get even more interesting.
Turkey believes that the deal, which involves its own regional rivals, Cyprus
and Greece, is designed specifically to marginalize it economically by
excluding it from the Mediterranean’s hydrocarbon boom.
Ankara is already a massive energy hub, being the host of TurkStream, which
feeds Europe, with approximately 40% of its needs of natural gas coming from
Russia. This fact has provided both Moscow and Ankara not only with more than
economic advantages but geostrategic leverage as well. If the EastMed pipeline
becomes a reality, Turkey and Russia will stand to lose the most.
In a series of successive, and surprising moves, Turkey retaliated by signing a
maritime border deal with Libya’s internationally-recognized Government of
National Accord (GNA), and by committing to send military support to help
Tripoli in its fight against forces loyal to General Khalifa Haftar.
“Turkey will not permit any activity that is against its own interests in the
region,” Fuat Oktay, Turkey’s Vice-President, told Anadolu News Agency, adding
that “any plan that disregards Turkey has absolutely no chance of success.”
Although European countries were quick to condemn Ankara, the latter has
succeeded in changing the rules of the game by staking a claim to vast areas
that are also claimed by Greece and Cyprus as part of their so-called exclusive
economic zones (EEZ).
Not only will Turkey be drilling in Libya’s territorial waters for natural gas,
but in disputed water near Cyprus as well. Ankara is accusing Cyprus of
violating “the equal claim to discoveries”, an arrangement that followed the
military conflict between both countries in 1974.
If the issue is not resolved, the EastMed pipeline project could potentially
turn into a pipedream. What seemed like a lucrative deal, with immense
geopolitical significance from an Israeli point of view, now appears to be
another extension of the wider Middle Eastern conflict.
While the EU is eager to loosen Russia’s strategic control over the natural gas
market, the EastMed pipeline increasingly appears unfeasible from every
possible angle.
However, considering the massive deposits of natural gas that are ready to fuel
struggling European markets, it is almost certain that the Mediterranean
natural gas will eventually become a major source of political disputes, if not
a war.
