Biden administration's coercive Iran policy threatens a serious new regional
crisis
GARETH PORTER.JANUARY 25, 2021
Team Biden is planning to hold on to what it apparently sees as its "Trump
card"- the Trump administration's sanctions against Iran oil exports that
have gutted the Iranian economy
A close analysis of recent statements by members of President Joseph Biden's
foreign policy team indicates his administration has already signaled its
intention to treat negotiations with Iran as an exercise in diplomatic
coercion aimed at forcing major new concessions extending well beyond the
2105 nuclear agreement. The policy could trigger a renewed US-Iran crisis as
serious as any provocation engineered by the Trump administration.
Although the Biden team is claiming that it is ready to bring the United
States back into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) if Iran
comes into full compliance first, it is actually planning to demand that
Iran give up its main source of political leverage. Thus, it will require
Iran to cease its uranium enrichment to 20 percent and give up its
accumulated stockpile of uranium already enriched to that level before the
United States has withdrawn the economic sanctions that are now illegal
under the JCPOA deal.
Meanwhile, the Biden team is planning to hold on to what it apparently sees
as its "Trump card"- the Trump administration's sanctions against Iran oil
exports that have gutted the Iranian economy.
But the Biden strategy faces a serious problem: Iran has already demanded
all sanctions imposed after the JCPOA took effect must be ended before Iran
would return to compliance. Iran expects the United States, as the party
which initially broke the agreement, to come into compliance first.
The New Biden Coercive Strategy
The Biden administration is banking on a scenario in which Iran agrees to
cease its enrichment to 20% and reverse other major concessions Iran made
as part of the 2015 agreement.
The Biden team then states it would start a new set of negotiations with
Iran, in which the United States would use its leverage to pressure Iran
into extending the timeline of its major commitments under the deal.
Further, Tehran will be required to accept a modification in its missile
program, as European allies have urged.
The Biden team's Iran strategy was not hastily cobbled together just before
inauguration. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan outlined it in an
interview last June with Jon Alterman, the Middle East program direct at the
Center for Strategic and International Studies. "You can get some early wins
on the nuclear program but tie long-term sanctions relief to progress on
both [nuclear and other issues] files," Sullivan explained.
Sullivan made it clear the primary goal of his proposed strategy was to
constrain Iran by imposing extended restraints on its nuclear program. The
idea, he explained, was "to see, is it possible to get a short term win on
the nuclear file to basically get Iran back into compliance with the JCPOA
and to then put the longer term disposition of Iran's nuclear program on a
negotiating track."
Biden's future NSC director implied that US sanctions would be exploited to
draw Iran into talks with Israel and Saudi Arabia on missiles and other
issues, but not at the expense of U.S. aims on the nuclear issue. The
assumption that the US would maintain its coercive leverage on Iran is at
the center of the policy. As Sullivan said, summarizing an article he
co-authored for Foreign Affairs, "the U.S. should say, 'We are going to be
here applying various forms of leverage, including economic leverage as well
as military dimensions, apart from whether we have 20,000 more troops or
10,000 less troops there'."
At the heart of Biden's strategy is the demand for Iran to return
immediately to full compliance with the nuclear agreement. Before Iran
rejoins the pact, the new administration expects it to reverse the moves it
made to increase the level and the speed of enrichment in response to
Trump's withdrawal.
The Biden administration's demand ignores the fact Iran scrupulously
observed all of the JCPOA's provisions for two years after the Trump
administration had withdrawn from the agreement. It was only after the Trump
administration reintroduced old sanctions outlawed by the agreement and
introduced crushing new sanctions aimed at preventing Iran from exporting
oil that Iran began enriching uranium at higher levels.
By piling up onerous demands while offering few concessions of its own, the
new administration conveys the clear message that it is in no hurry to
return to the JCPOA. Secretary of State of Tony Blinken stated in his
confirmation testimony that the Biden administration was "a long way" from
returning to the deal and said nothing about reversing any of the sanctions
that were introduced or reintroduced by the Trump administration after it
quit the agreement.
Robert J. Einhorn, a key Obama policymaker on the Iran nuclear issue as
State Department Special Adviser on Arms Control and Proliferation who has
maintained contacts with Biden insiders, has provided an explanation for
that ambiguous message. He suggested that the Biden administration aims to
press Iran for a deal falling well short of full restoration of the JCPOA -
an "interim agreement" involving "rollback" of part of Iran's current
enrichment activities and going beyond the JCPOA in return for "partial
sanctions relief."
That relief would include "some" of the revenues from oil sales that have
been blocked in foreign bank accounts. Einhorn appeared to confirm that the
new Biden strategy would be based in holding on to the leverage conferred by
Trump sanctions against Iran's oil and banking sectors, which have crippled
the country/s economy.
Learning the Wrong Lesson from Obama's Coercive Diplomacy
Biden's foreign policy team is comprised largely of Obama administration
officials who either initiated nuclear deal talks in 2012-2013 or who were
involved in the later stages of the negotiations. NSC Director Sullivan and
CIA Director William Burns were key figures in the early talks with Iran;
Blinken oversaw the later phase of the negotiations as Deputy Secretary of
State, and Undersecretary of State Wendy Sherman was in charge of day-to-day
negotiations with Iran on the JCPOA until the final round in Vienna in 2015.
So it should be no surprise that the Biden team is pursuing an Iran strategy
similar to the one that the Obama administration followed in its
negotiations with Iran on the JCPOA itself. The Obama administration proudly
claimed success in increasing Iran's "breakout time" for obtaining enough
enriched uranium for a single bomb from two or three months to a year
through the pressure of heavy sanctions. It believed it had secured a
winning diplomatic hand in 2012 when it got European allies to buy into its
coercive strategy of oil and banking sanctions that would cut deeply into
Iran's foreign currency earnings.
But Iran's enrichment efforts before negotiations on the nuclear deal began
in 2012 tell a very different story. As the IAEA reported at the time,
between late 2011 and February 2013, Iran enriched 280 kg of uranium to 20
percent, which would have placed it well over the level regarded as
sufficient for "breakout" to a bomb. Meanwhile, Iran roughly doubled the
number of centrifuges capable of 20 percent enrichment at its Fordow
enrichment facility.
Instead of storing the total amount of uranium enriched to 20 percent for a
possible bomb, however, Iran did exactly the opposite: it immediately
converted 40 percent of its total capacity of enriched uranium to power
Iran's reactor. What's more, it did not take steps to make the new
centrifuges at Fordow capable of enrichment.
Iran was clearly amassing its stockpile and enrichment capability as
bargaining chips for future negotiations. During a September 2012 meeting
with EU officials in Istanbul, Iran confirmed the strategy by offering to
suspend its 20 percent enrichment in return for significant easing of
Western sanctions.
The Obama administration believed its sanctions weapon would prevail over
Iran's diplomatic chips. But Iran persisted in asserting its right to more
than a token enrichment program. In the very last days of the negotiations
in 2015, Secretary of State John Kerry sought to retain language that would
allow the United States to reimpose sanctions deep into the implementation
of the agreement, as an Iranian official told this writer in Vienna. But
Iran held fast, and Obama needed to get an agreement. Kerry ultimately gave
up his demand.
Blinken, Sullivan and the other Biden administration officials who worked on
Iran during the Obama administration seem to have forgotten how Iran used 20
percent enrichment to get the United States to drop its sanctions. In any
case, they are so enamored with the Trump sanctions and their role in
stifling Iranian oil sales that they believe they will have the upper hand
this time around.
In its bid to coerce a state that is fighting for its most basic national
rights into submission, the Biden administration has exhibited a stubborn
refusal to acknowledge the limits of U.S. power. The Trump administration's
"maximum pressure" campaign has already prompted Iran to establish military
capabilities that it previously lacked.
If the Biden administration refuses to relent on its coercive diplomacy and
provokes a crisis, Iran can now inflict serious costs on the United States
and its allies in the region. Yet Biden's foreign policy team appears so far
to be oblivious to the serious risks inherent in its current path.
