To sum up, a reserve stock for tac ballistic missile production is
possible, as practical AN motor designs exist, but they tend not to have
great shelf life. Which could then explain why it might be held as a
stock rather than as assembled missiles - possibly a war reserve for a
followup wave of hastily-assembled missiles. Assume 1-ton missiles, 50%
propellant, 40% of which is AN, and that's about 6800 such missiles.
Assume AN warheads also and we're down to 4000-5000 missiles. Either
way, a potentially significant token in the local missile game.
"Possible" is of course far from "proven." And "never ascribe to
malice" always should be kept in mind in such things, yes. The only
major hole I can see in the "confiscated years ago from a ship by
incompetent cops" story would be, why wouldn't it have then been quietly
sold for ready cash years ago? A plausible active motive for keeping it
there (aside from that odd mix of incompetent callousness and /lack/ of
greed) would be as a war reserve stock for someone used to using the
local civs as human shields for such.
Given the powerful motive for numerous parties (us included) to blame
this on Hezbollah regardless of the truth of the matter, it could be a
while before we know for sure what to believe in the aftermath of this
thing. But it's good to have a handle on the technical factors as those
of us who watch such things follow further developments. Thanks, all!
Henry
On 8/4/2020 6:59 PM, Henry Spencer wrote:
On Tue, 4 Aug 2020, Bruce Beck wrote:
They said the warehouse was used to store energetic materials confiscated from ships, including fireworks.The cops are not known for their expertise in handling such materials.
Especially poorly-paid cops in a war-torn dysfunctional country.
It *might* have been someone's reserve stash of explosive/propellant, but I think the "never ascribe to malice what is readily explained by stupidity" principle is relevant.
Henry
