[AR] Re: 3 no 4 no 5 legs.

  • From: Henry Spencer <hspencer@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: Arocket List <arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Wed, 20 Jan 2016 17:42:41 -0500 (EST)

On Wed, 20 Jan 2016, John Dom wrote:

The but is what happens to private enterprise SpaceX if Elon does not survive e.g. a car crash?

It's a general problem with any company centered on one guy's energy and enthusiasm and creativity. Quite aside from car crashes etc., what happens if he simply loses interest? (I suspect this was a factor in the demise of Armadillo Aerospace.)

In the case of SpaceX, as Bill mentions, it wouldn't just go away because it has become "the other ULA", increasingly important to US government access to space. However, in the absence of Elon, probably it would truly *become* "the other ULA" -- it would focus on its partly-expendable launch business and Dragon capsule operations, and shelve more radical ideas like private Mars expeditions.

Henry

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