[yshavurah] this week's snippets - Happy Hanukah and Merry Christmas!
- From: "Cherie Kurland" <kurlandc@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "Sharon Feldstein snippets" <sharon_jcef@xxxxxxx>
- Date: Sun, 21 Dec 2003 20:45:46 -0500
Dayton, OH Set your VCRs: ?Dayton?s Jewish War Veterans? airs on ch. 20, DATV
for those on Time Warner cable in Dayton and areas north of the city, on Mon.,
12/29 8pm.
From www.jcpa.org/daily for 12/19/03: Fitch Revises Israel's Foreign Currency
Outlook to "Stable" (Globes)
Fitch Ratings, the international rating agency, Tuesday revised the outlook on
Israel's long-term foreign currency rating from Negative to Stable. Fitch's
analysts wrote: "The foreign currency rating action acknowledges the continued
stability and in some cases improvement in Israel's external indicators, an
improved macroeconomic policy mix following measures taken in May and contained
in the 2004 budget, an improved external environment, and signs of economic
recovery."
· EU Thwarts PLO's Anti-Israel Move in UN - Shlomo Shamir
EU countries foiled a PLO initiative to challenge Israel's credentials at the
UN. EU representatives told PLO Ambassador Nasser al-Kidwa that exploiting the
routine votes on country credentials crossed "a red line." French Foreign
Minister Dominique de Villepin ordered the French delegation to oppose the PLO
legation's resolution, and the legation said it would not seek a vote at this
stage. Israeli Ambassador Danny Gillerman said, "the Palestinian failure to
challenge Israel's credentials is a victory for Israeli foreign policy."
(Ha'aretz)
An interesting reaction to otherwise good news from Libya: from
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1071907508717:
??.Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher called on Israel Saturday to follow
Libya's example. "I hope that other countries in the region ... would follow
such an example ... get rid of and put an end to any nuclear weapons production
program," Maher said. Maher did not specifically name Israel, but said, "You
know, of course, who I mean." Asked if the international community should start
looking at Israel's nuclear capabilities, Maher, who is heading to Israel on
Monday, said: "I said that the steps which Libya took should be a model to
follow. This is clear. I won't add anything."
Egypt, a US ally, is believed to harbor chemical weapons - including deadly
sarin and VX agents - along with, perhaps, an offensive bioweapons capability,
according to the Monterey Institute of International Studies, which tracks
weapons issues.?
Debka has a frightening analysis and opinion of Ariel Sharon?s speech ? see
http://debka.com/article.php?aid=747: ??.Our analysts see Sharon?s ?Separation
Program? as over-reliant on Washington and failing to provide for at least
three contingencies, each of which would throw his plan out of kilter long
before the six months are up.
1. Yasser Arafat is a sick man. Who knows if he will last six months?
2. It is common knowledge everywhere ? from Washington, Berlin, Moscow and
Cairo to Ramallah and Jerusalem, that Ahmed Qureia aka Abu Ala is a nonentity.
Nothing will come out of his premiership either for Israel or the Palestinians.
3. Terrorist action against Israel is expected to escalate in volume and
savagery ? even after Arafat?s departure.
The next three points explain why Sharon is playing for time and explain the
real motive behind his threatened ?redeployments.?
4. The United States and Islamic fundamentalist terrorist forces are both
bracing for a decisive showdown in Iraq estimated to erupt in March-April 2004.
Al Qaeda and the Iranian-backed Hizballah have secretly put their ace
operative, Imad Mughniyeh, in place in Iraq to lead the Islamic side into
battle as its chief of staff. Israel will not be left on the sidelines of this
confrontation which could well peak in May or even June, six months hence.
5. As this showdown approaches, Washington is unlikely to let Syria continue to
get away with furnishing its enemies in Iraq with arms and funds or shielding
the Hizballah terrorists. The coming months are therefore expected to bring the
Bush administration to its moment of truth with the Assad regime.
6. Within six months, Iran may have built itself a nuclear bomb ? the most
dangerous challenge of all to both America and Israel.
All six processes are due to come to a head in roughly six months. This is the
dynamic at the back of Sharon?s mind. When that happens, he expects the
controversial terms ?unilateral,? ?disengagement,? ?separation,? ?redeployment
of settlements? and even possibly ?road map? ? in a word, his own bombastic
Separation Plan - to fade into irrelevance. What will remain are the
?disengagement? lines he will be setting up as Israel?s defense lines for the
next round of conflict. If this entails relocating or evacuating West Bank
Jewish communities, so be it. He has broadcast his intention of doing so in
advance.?
The prime minister?s timeline may not be precise. Six months, or even six days,
are an eon in the Middle East and apt to throw up imponderables. If the
expected crisis peaks earlier, he will have to improvise and, as is his wont,
make sure his actions are in full sync with Washington.
He will also have to restore the truncated defense budget to the level required
to meet any upcoming national security contingencies.
On Thursday, December 18, defense minister Shaul Mofaz and chief of staff Lt.
Gen. Moshe Yaalon voiced outrage to a Knesset Committee at the Treasury?s deep,
arbitrary slashes in the 2004 defense budget. Mofaz complained the new budget
would effectively dismantle Israel?s defensive capabilities, while Yaalon
warned the Merkava tank project would have to be scrapped, there would be fewer
reserve call-ups, a drastic reduction in air force resources, less combat
training and thousands of job cuts in the defense establishment and
industries.?
CIA Predictions, from www.jcpa.org/daily for 12/17/03: The Middle East to 2020
- U.S. National Intelligence Council (CIA) The U.S. National Intelligence
Council, operating under the guidance of CIA director George Tenet and chaired
by Ambassador Robert Hutchings, is responsible for providing short- and
middle-term strategic assessments to the U.S. government. Excerpts from the
new, unclassified, experts' report:
· The outbreak of a new war between Israel and one or more
Arab states, especially Syria [is possible]. Neither side would seek a war, but
there will be continuing potential for an unintended outbreak of hostilities. A
new war might entail use of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear
(CBRN) weapons, possibly initiated by Syrian employment of chemical weapons.
· Another crushing Arab military defeat at the hands of
Israel would exacerbate the disillusionment of Arabs with their ineffective
regimes.
· Perhaps the death of Arafat - which is likely before 2020
- would set in motion events leading to a final, comprehensive Arab-Israeli
peace settlement. Although an accord would be at least initially a "cold
peace," if it were regarded as acceptable to the great majority of Palestinians
it would mean the biggest change in regional discourse since Israel's creation.
· It also would be a moment of truth for several Arab
regimes, which would lose their most effective distraction from their own
shortcomings and major excuse for not facing up to needed reforms.
Happy Hanukah! Merry Christmas!
--- Cherie Kurland
--- kurlandc@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
--- EarthLink: The #1 provider of the Real Internet.
Other related posts:
- » [yshavurah] this week's snippets - Happy Hanukah and Merry Christmas!
