[texbirds] Re: Fall/Winter prediction?
- From: Beth Duncan <Beth.Duncan@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "Fred_Collins@xxxxxxxx" <Fred_Collins@xxxxxxxx>, "gcwarbler@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <gcwarbler@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>, TexBirds TexBirds Posting <texbirds@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Thu, 22 May 2014 20:54:05 +0000
I've noticed on NOAA there is talk of an El Nino developing. How would that
impact birding in Texas?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
Beth Duncan
Leander, TX
-----Original Message-----
From: texbirds-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:texbirds-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] On
Behalf Of Collins, Fred (Commissioner Pct. 3)
Sent: Thursday, May 22, 2014 3:31 PM
To: gcwarbler@xxxxxxxxxxxxx; TexBirds TexBirds Posting
Subject: [texbirds] Re: Fall/Winter prediction?
Odd timing on this message Chuck. Just this morning I entered our fall birding
classes on the calendar. The November 19th class is : "Wild Speculation about
what birds the coming year will bring"
I guess great minds work in the same stratosphere!
Let's hope your thoughts (and mine) are dashed with a good round of rain for
those folks out there praying for rain.
Fred Collins, Director
Kleb Woods Nature Center
20303 Draper Road,Tomball TX 77377
Harris County Precinct 3
Steve Radack Commissioner
-----Original Message-----
From: texbirds-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:texbirds-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] On
Behalf Of Chuck Sexton
Sent: Thursday, May 22, 2014 3:16 PM
To: TexBirds TexBirds Posting
Subject: [texbirds] Fall/Winter prediction?
TexBirders,
My crystal ball never seems to work properly but I thought I'd relay a thought
that came to me as I was perusing the latest U.S. Dought Monitor:
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu
A few winters ago, when there was such a conspicuous Fall/Winter influx of such
things as Sage Thrashers and Lark Buntings into Central Texas, the season was
preceded by a continental drought portrait not unlike what we have setting up
now: The upper Great Plains and Northern and Central Rockies are not stressed
by drought at present while much of the SW U.S. is in much more serious shape
with extreme to exceptional drought. The patterns then and now are not
precisely the same, but the general geography is similar.
I suggested back then that the extraordinary suite of irruptive species which
we saw in CenTex was likely a result of good productivity of that set of
species in their breeding range, coupled with harsh conditions in their
"normal" wintering habitats in west Texas and the SW U.S., leading many
individuals to wander eastward looking for more resources.
So, IF species such as Sage Thrasher, Lark Bunting, Red-naped Sapsucker, and/or
Mountain Bluebird are having a good breeding season this summer AND if
conditions remain poor in the SW U.S. and west Texas into the Fall season, THEN
we'll see if the pattern of occurrences of 2011-12 happens again. How about an
influx of Rosy Finches for Texas? How about a Pine Grosbeak in Texline? How
about a Baird's Sparrow in every yard? (Settle down, Chuck.)
That's my story and I'm sticking to it...until otherwise modified...or if I
change my mind...or if the weather changes.
Chuck Sexton
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