Odd timing on this message Chuck. Just this morning I entered our fall birding classes on the calendar. The November 19th class is : "Wild Speculation about what birds the coming year will bring" I guess great minds work in the same stratosphere! Let's hope your thoughts (and mine) are dashed with a good round of rain for those folks out there praying for rain. Fred Collins, Director Kleb Woods Nature Center 20303 Draper Road,Tomball TX 77377 Harris County Precinct 3 Steve Radack Commissioner -----Original Message----- From: texbirds-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:texbirds-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of Chuck Sexton Sent: Thursday, May 22, 2014 3:16 PM To: TexBirds TexBirds Posting Subject: [texbirds] Fall/Winter prediction? TexBirders, My crystal ball never seems to work properly but I thought I'd relay a thought that came to me as I was perusing the latest U.S. Dought Monitor: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu A few winters ago, when there was such a conspicuous Fall/Winter influx of such things as Sage Thrashers and Lark Buntings into Central Texas, the season was preceded by a continental drought portrait not unlike what we have setting up now: The upper Great Plains and Northern and Central Rockies are not stressed by drought at present while much of the SW U.S. is in much more serious shape with extreme to exceptional drought. The patterns then and now are not precisely the same, but the general geography is similar. I suggested back then that the extraordinary suite of irruptive species which we saw in CenTex was likely a result of good productivity of that set of species in their breeding range, coupled with harsh conditions in their "normal" wintering habitats in west Texas and the SW U.S., leading many individuals to wander eastward looking for more resources. So, IF species such as Sage Thrasher, Lark Bunting, Red-naped Sapsucker, and/or Mountain Bluebird are having a good breeding season this summer AND if conditions remain poor in the SW U.S. and west Texas into the Fall season, THEN we'll see if the pattern of occurrences of 2011-12 happens again. How about an influx of Rosy Finches for Texas? How about a Pine Grosbeak in Texline? How about a Baird's Sparrow in every yard? (Settle down, Chuck.) That's my story and I'm sticking to it...until otherwise modified...or if I change my mind...or if the weather changes. Chuck Sexton AustinEdit your Freelists account settings for TEXBIRDS at //www.freelists.org/list/texbirds Reposting of traffic from TEXBIRDS is prohibited without seeking permission from the List Owner Edit your Freelists account settings for TEXBIRDS at //www.freelists.org/list/texbirds Reposting of traffic from TEXBIRDS is prohibited without seeking permission from the List Owner