Yes I did thanks. I replied to your email address but looks like it got lost on the way, I 've resent my reply. Dan ----- Original Message ----- From: "Laurie McAnulty" <mcanulty@xxxxxxxxxx> To: <ppug@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> Sent: Saturday, August 28, 2004 3:25 PM Subject: [ppug] Re: Roger Biggs laying horses > Hi Daniel > I sent that info to you direct Thursday, did you receive it? > > Laurie > > Laurie McAnulty wrote: > > > No trouble Daniel I'll have a go at that for you & report by Friday at > > latest > > > > Laurie > > > > Daniel Nettle wrote: > > > >> Hi Laurie > >> > >> Yeah I reckon you probably need 50-60% lot too. But it's so hard to > >> find, I > >> usually get to about 40-45% and hit a dead end. I have about 2 1/2 > >> yrs of > >> Saturday data but only about 4 solid months of midweek data. I've got a > >> feeling the gold might be hiding in the midweek. > >> BTW if you have enough midweek data, could you test horses that have won > >> their last 3 races. My feeling is the horse would be a big underlay > >> when the > >> avg punter looks at the formline. Looks like a good base on the > >> limited data > >> I have. > >> > >> Dan > >> ----- Original Message ----- From: "Laurie McAnulty" > >> <mcanulty@xxxxxxxxxx> > >> To: <ppug@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> > >> Sent: Tuesday, August 24, 2004 8:45 PM > >> Subject: [ppug] Re: Roger Biggs laying horses > >> > >> > >> > >> > >>> Hi Daniel > >>> > >>> Probably the reason the thread died is that it is so hard to work out a > >>> decent lay system. I think my ratio of backing to laying systems is 7 > >>> backing to every one laying system. > >>> > >>> Further betfair is so generous on the backing side that I reckon you > >>> need 50-60% LOT. > >>> > >>> I'd suggest you need a swag of data ( coupla years). Agree on avoiding > >>> the longshots as double the tab odds are very common. > >>> > >>> I limit my tests by using max TAB $16 in PP when I'm doing a test. > >>> > >>> Laurie > >>> > >>> Daniel Nettle wrote: > >>> > >>> > >>> > >>>> Hi Stebbo > >>>> > >>>> Yeah that's what I actually meant, I should have clarified that a bit > >>>> better. There's no liquidity on the outsiders anyway. When I'm > >>>> attempting to build a potential laying system, I stick to odds of 10/1 > >>>> and under, preferably under 5/1. My thoughts are that it needs to > >>>> have a LOT of at least 40% to be viable to overcome the betfair > >>>> commision and the fact you have to offer better prices than the TAB's > >>>> to get matched. > >>>> > >>>> But if you stick to the market leaders, you can generally lay at 10% > >>>> over or less. Sometimes I can lay at lower prices than the TAB. > >>>> > >>>> I'd love to get a discussion going on this if anyone's interested. I > >>>> noticed a few threads in the archives on laying but the discussions > >>>> didn't last very long. > >>>> > >>>> Dan > >>>> > >>>> ----- Original Message ----- > >>>> From: Stebbo <mailto:ppug@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> > >>>> To: ppug@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:ppug@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> > >>>> Sent: Thursday, August 19, 2004 5:21 PM > >>>> Subject: [ppug] Re: Roger Biggs > >>>> > >>>> At 05:30 PM 19/08/2004, Daniel Nettle wrote: > >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > >>>>> Thanks for the tips Robert. Yes I do have the add ons. I mainly > >>>>> brought one of Peter's books because I thought it might help me > >>>>> find favourites not likely to win. My main interest is in laying > >>>>> horses to lose on the exchanges. I brought PPP for this purpose > >>>>> as soon as Betfair started covering Australian racing. I thought > >>>>> it would be really easy to find a losing system but that hasn't > >>>>> been the case. I think it would probably be actually easier to > >>>>> back horses for a profit but now I'm determined to find a good > >>>>> laying system/method. > >>>>> > >>>> > >>>> Hi Daniel, > >>>> > >>>> finding losing systems is quite easy.... Finding losing systems > >>>> with selections that aren't paying too much is the hard part..... > >>>> I looked into this ages ago myself... the problem was that most of > >>>> the horses that are almost guaranteed to lose are at very long > >>>> odds, and often much longer odds than the totes.... I'm not > >>>> prepared to lay a donkey at 100-1 just in case it wins.... I'd be > >>>> wiped out in one go. > >>>> > >>>> Cheers, > >>>> Chris. > >>>> > >>>> > >>> > >>> ===== > >>> Unofficial Price Predictor Users Group > >>> To send email to the list: ppug@xxxxxxxxxxxxx > >>> Subscribe/Unsubscribe/Options: //www.freelists.org/list/ppug > >>> Archives: //www.freelists.org/archives/ppug > >>> Help : //www.freelists.org/help/ > >>> > >>> > >> > >> > >> ===== > >> Unofficial Price Predictor Users Group > >> To send email to the list: ppug@xxxxxxxxxxxxx > >> Subscribe/Unsubscribe/Options: //www.freelists.org/list/ppug > >> Archives: //www.freelists.org/archives/ppug > >> Help : //www.freelists.org/help/ > >> > >> > >> > > > > > > ===== > > Unofficial Price Predictor Users Group > > To send email to the list: ppug@xxxxxxxxxxxxx > > Subscribe/Unsubscribe/Options: //www.freelists.org/list/ppug > > Archives: //www.freelists.org/archives/ppug > > Help : //www.freelists.org/help/ > > > > > ===== > Unofficial Price Predictor Users Group > To send email to the list: ppug@xxxxxxxxxxxxx > Subscribe/Unsubscribe/Options: //www.freelists.org/list/ppug > Archives: //www.freelists.org/archives/ppug > Help : //www.freelists.org/help/ > ===== Unofficial Price Predictor Users Group To send email to the list: ppug@xxxxxxxxxxxxx Subscribe/Unsubscribe/Options: //www.freelists.org/list/ppug Archives: //www.freelists.org/archives/ppug Help : //www.freelists.org/help/