[opendtv] Re: Recovery based on CE
- From: "John Willkie" <johnwillkie@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Mon, 7 Jun 2004 21:54:31 -0700
The money at risk versus the market size is quite interesting, Frank.
I'm not so sure that Aunt Millie is really going to buy a monitor. Won't
her "DTV transition cost" more on the order of a STB (current retail price <
$300) if she isn't a cable subscriber? I guess one can always add on an
antenna, but if she doesn't use one today, it's unlikely she'll need much of
one in the future.
John Willkie
-----Original Message-----
From: opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Eory Frank-p22212
Sent: Monday, June 07, 2004 6:07 PM
To: 'opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Subject: [opendtv] Re: Recovery based on CE
From: "John Shutt" <shuttj@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Mon, 7 Jun 2004 17:29:02 -0400
>Nothing personal, Bert, but the next time someone says that ATSC chip
>equalizers will cost next to nothing because 'its just silicon' will have
to
>explain digital camera memory chip pricing to me.
>
>John Shutt
Yes, in the future all silicon will be free -- as long as it's the kind you
get at the beach :)
The low costs that are always projected for CE products have lots of
interesting assumptions built into them -- most notably, the assumptions of
huge volumes. Moore's Law marches on, but economics are starting to put a
twist on it. 90 nm is turning out to be very...umm...interesting, and 65 nm
is really stratospheric stuff. Designers and the EDA industry whose tools
enable them are facing some radical shifts in methodology -- and risk. At
$1M per mask set, "risk" is a word that managers really pay attention to.
And situations like "we HAVE to build the ATSC chip in 90 nm, and even then
it will be really HUGE" do not help the business case.
As long as ATSC receiver/decoders remain a small niche market, no chipmaker
is going to make a nickel off this stuff. But wait, we have a government
mandate, so the volumes will surely materialize, right? Let's see how
consumers respond to the "DTV tuner tax" -- not this year, when we're
talking HDTV sets -- but in 1-2 years when Aunt Millie goes to buy a regular
TV at Wal-Mart, and learns the real cost of "free" off-air TV. She will most
likely also learn a new word -- "monitor" -- the thing she will be willing
to pay for, to plug into her satellite or cable set-top box.
-- Frank
----- Original Message -----
From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
>> Interesting perspective.
>>
>> > In an annual survey, the Synopsys Users Group reported that
>> > the average designs are now at 5 million gates, five times
>> > the typical chip density of just one year ago. Synopsys is
>> > tracking 150 designs at 90 nanometers and a couple of dozen
>> > at 65 nm, most of them assuming a world of 300-mm wafers
>> > with copper and low-k dielectrics in place.
>> >
>> > "The train is moving very quickly," de Geus said.
>>
>> Oops. That "train" again. But this time, it might truly have
>> left the station, and I think this is how we're going to see
>> the price of DTT receivers drop dramatically. This in spite
>> of the much more cautious recovery we're in, according to the
>> article. Digital TV, among other CE products, it says, will
>> play a major role.
>>
>> Bert
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