[opendtv] Re: Apple's online TV proposal stirs interest from broadcast networks
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Mon, 4 Jan 2010 09:57:03 -0500
At 8:57 AM -0500 1/4/10, John Shutt wrote:
Look how long it has taken for the Broadcast franchise to start a
significant contraction - decades. Just saw a study that said that
TV station revenues were down 22% in 2009.
Compared to election year 2008?
Actually, despite having the Olymipics and a Presidential election,
2008 was down (0.4%) relative to 2007, a non election year. A
significant part of the reason for this was that the economy started
to seriously tank in the 3rd quarter of 2008.
But the trend line for local ad revenues has been declining for some
time now, especially when adjusted for inflation, and the future
looks bleak. Here are some figures and estimates for the future from
the Television Advertising Bureau:
http://www.tvb.org/nav/build_frameset.aspx
And there is this analysis of the local broadcast market from July of
this year:
http://www.mediapost.com/publications/?art_aid=109139&fa=Articles.showArticle
Here is one interesting paragraph:
BIA Advisory Services is the latest to downwardly revise its
forecast: TV station revenues this year will decline 17.3% to $16.6
billion from 2008, returning to 1995 levels. Internet-related
revenues will be $556 million in 2009 and not top $1 billion until
2013. While other estimates vary, the overriding picture remains the
same. Broadcast TV stations' best days are behind them unless they
can reinvent themselves.
Given the reality that the networks are trying to squeeze retrans
dollars from affiliates, the future does indeed look bleak...
Regards
Craig
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