[opendtv] Re: Apple's online TV proposal stirs interest from broadcast networks

At 8:57 AM -0500 1/4/10, John Shutt wrote:
Look how long it has taken for the Broadcast franchise to start a
significant contraction - decades. Just saw a study that said that
TV station revenues were down 22% in 2009.

Compared to election year 2008?


Actually, despite having the Olymipics and a Presidential election, 2008 was down (0.4%) relative to 2007, a non election year. A significant part of the reason for this was that the economy started to seriously tank in the 3rd quarter of 2008.

But the trend line for local ad revenues has been declining for some time now, especially when adjusted for inflation, and the future looks bleak. Here are some figures and estimates for the future from the Television Advertising Bureau:

http://www.tvb.org/nav/build_frameset.aspx

And there is this analysis of the local broadcast market from July of this year:

http://www.mediapost.com/publications/?art_aid=109139&fa=Articles.showArticle

Here is one interesting paragraph:

BIA Advisory Services is the latest to downwardly revise its forecast: TV station revenues this year will decline 17.3% to $16.6 billion from 2008, returning to 1995 levels. Internet-related revenues will be $556 million in 2009 and not top $1 billion until 2013. While other estimates vary, the overriding picture remains the same. Broadcast TV stations' best days are behind them unless they can reinvent themselves.

Given the reality that the networks are trying to squeeze retrans dollars from affiliates, the future does indeed look bleak...

Regards
Craig


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