[lit-ideas] The Iraqi election
- From: "Andreas Ramos" <andreas@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "Lit-Ideas" <lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 11:22:19 -0800
The Shiites, who make up 60% of the population, got 48% of the vote, which
means they got
extremely high turnout. The Kurds got 26%. Sunni candidates got only 14%,
despite massive US
support. Sunni boycotted the election, with turn out as low as 2% in some
areas. Overall,
turnout was 60%.
The likely result will be compromise and cooperation between Shiite and Kurd so
they can
rule with a 74% majority. This may be a Shiite prime minister and a Kurd
president.
We'll see the first Shiite government in an Arab land in a thousand years.
The election is a very serious setback for the Bush White House. They had first
wanted to
install Chalabi (a friend of the neocons and extremely corrupt) and then Allawi
(a
ex-Baathist Sunni political strongman with CIA ties). The Shiite, led by
Ayatollah Sistani,
however demanded elections. The US repeatedly tried to postpone or cancel the
elections,
knowing that the outcome would strenghen the Shiites and bring about an
anti-American
government in Iraq (and not to speak about a friendly Shiite government in
Iran). With a
very strong Shiite/Kurd majority (74%) and the Sunni largely marginalized,
they, not the
White House, will set the agenda. Things may start to accelerate now.
yrs,
andreas
www.andreas.com
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