[lit-ideas] Re: Jihad Against Hezbollah

  • From: "Simon Ward" <sedward@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: <lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Mon, 7 Aug 2006 00:02:48 +0100

In the last few years - since Israel left Lebanon - we can presume that Hezbollah has been investing in civilian schemes, including schools and hospitals. If, during that period, it had been planning a war against Israel, we might have expected it to commit a sizable portion of its funds towards providing shelter.

If, however, it hadn't been planning on a war against Israel, why build shelters. I'm not suggesting that it decided to capture the soldiers only after it had completed construction, I'm saying that to all intents and purposes there wasn't a choice between schools/hospitals on the one side and air raid shelters on the other. It's obvious, if you're not expecting a war, what you're going to build.

It's worth reading a link Omar provided:

http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/3412

It's an article written by Stephen Zunes.

Incidentally, the $100 million supposedly given each year by Iran was an estimate put forward in May 1996 by Warren Christopher. We can assume that he got it somewhere, but it hasn't appeared to have changed in the eyes of US officials since that time.

See:

http://digital.library.unt.edu/govdocs/crs//data/2002/upl-meta-crs-3207/RL31119_2002Feb13.pdf

This also corroborates a comment by Zunes that Hezbollah has been 'migrating' in recent years, moving from an armed militia/terrorist organisation (depending on your viewpoint), to a political force committed to serving the Lebanese population. It has political representation in the Lebanese parliament.

Now look at the situation from Israel's perspective. Hezbollah shows signs of giving up its military outlook in favour of politics. It has a record of investing in civilian infrastructure. The EU doesn't consider it a terrorist organisation. It has captured two soldiers. Does it a) negotiate an exchange (trusting that this will further reduce tensions) or b) start a war?

Simon

----- Original Message ----- From: "Robert Paul" <rpaul@xxxxxxxx>
To: <lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, August 06, 2006 11:35 PM
Subject: [lit-ideas] Re: Jihad Against Hezbollah


Simon Ward wrote:

Actually, the $100 million is an aside by the journo rather than a quote from the businessman. "...the businessman said that he wondered why, with all the resources Hezbollah had at its disposal—it receives an estimated hundred million dollars a year from Iran—it hadn’t done more to protect its civilian population." 

Thank you for this clarification.

As for why Hezbollah didn't build any bomb shelters I would expect that a cost benefit analysis would show that schools and hospitals would be more suitable. Especially so considering that the expected result of capturing two Israeli soldiers was a prisoner swap rather than war.

Any schools or hospitals must have been completed well in advance of the kidnapping unless you're suggesting that Hezbollah's single aim was to kidnap them, following the completion of schools (?) and hospitals.

Robert Paul
Reed College
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