[lit-ideas] Iran ready for sanctions
- From: "Lawrence Helm" <lawrencehelm@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: <lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sat, 4 Feb 2006 18:03:43 -0800
The Brookings Strategy (at least the portion posted by Eric) indicated that
Iran would need things from China and Russia and not being able to get them
would force them to give in to an embargo. The argument didn't specify what
things, but I got the impression they were talking about weapons.
On page 72, Berman writes, "Over the past several years, massive defense
acquisitions - courtesy of Russia, China, and North Korea - have steadily
broadened Iran's strategic reach over vital Persian Gulf shipping lanes, to
the point that Tehran now possesses the ability to interrupt oil supplies
form the region. The Islamic Republic, however, is not relying solely on
foreign arms. During the Iran-Iraq War, Western embargos had left the
Iranian regime vulnerable to Iraq's superior arsenal and firepower. Ever
since, officials in Tehran have made major investments in military
self-sufficiency a top priority.
"The results are impressive; Iran is now capable of domestically producing a
wide array of strategic weaponry, ranging from ballistic missiles to combat
submarines. Since 2003, the pace of this development has accelerated
substantially, manifested in the public unveiling of a number of
indigenously produced battlefield systems, including naval cruisers equipped
with Iranian 'Peykan' missile launchers (now in service in the Caspian Sea)
and the 'Sa'eqe' (Lightning), a domestically designed fighter jet intended
to boost the country's 'defensive power.' These efforts are seen by Iranian
officials as essential to their country's continued regional status: 'The
production of modern weapons and the acquisition of new technology . . .are
among the pillars of our national security,' Mohsen Rezai, the influential
former commander of the Pasdaran, has maintained publicly. 'If Iran
carefully implements the plan, it will be able to establish itself as the
first regional power.'"
If the Brookings strategists are assuming Iran needs something along the
lines of what the embargo during the Iran/Iraq war denied them, it looks as
though Iran has remedied that deficiency. Perhaps it is something else they
have in mind. I don't know what but let's call it commodities x, y & z. We
create sanctions, China & Russia go along and we keep an eagle eye on North
Korea. I don't see why their terrorist arm, Hezbollah, already operating
hither and yon outside of Iran, can't jump in and help the home folks by
sneaking x, y & z across borders they know better than anyone.
The above casts even more doubt on the efficacy of the Brookings Strategy.
But wait, someone might say. If Iran has more powerful weapons than is
generally realized, doesn't that reduce the chance of taking out their
nuclear sites? Perhaps. Their force wouldn't stop surgical missile
strikes, of course, but if they have their sites buried in such a way that
the missiles can't get to them, requiring Special Forces on the ground to
perform certain tasks, the Iranian weaponry would be an impediment, perhaps
requiring bombing their military installations, taking out their air force
and flying cover for Special Ops. I assume our forces are more experienced,
better equipped, and more efficient than theirs. I still like our chances.
Lawrence
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