[lit-ideas] Re: Iran and Realpolitik
- From: Omar Kusturica <omarkusto@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Tue, 9 May 2006 04:15:55 -0700 (PDT)
That wouldn't be polite to those of us who are more
interested in discussing military topics.
O.K.
--- JimKandJulieB@xxxxxxx wrote:
> Perhaps we should rename this list-serve
> "Geopolitics and the Realpolitik"?
>
> Julie Krueger
>
> ========Original Message======== Subj:
> [lit-ideas] Iran and Realpolitik
> Date: 5/4/06 12:14:37 A.M. Central Daylight Time
> From: _omarkusto@xxxxxxxxxx
> (mailto:omarkusto@xxxxxxxxx) To:
> _lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> (mailto:lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx) Sent on:
>
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HE04Ak03.html
>
> May 4, 2006
>
>
> Two can play the game of politics
> By Ramzy Baroud
>
> When the deputy head of the Iranian Atomic Energy
> Agency, Muhammad Saeedi, said recently that his
> country is willing to allow "snap inspections" by
> the
> International Atomic Energy Agency, he conditioned
> his
> country's concession on excluding the United
> Nations
> Security Council from any involvement in inspecting
> Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities.
>
> Quite properly, US Secretary of State Condoleezza
> Rice
> said Iran was "playing games" with the international
> community. Indeed, Iran is playing games - in the
> sense that it is repeatedly testing
> US resolve to find out how far the Bush
> administration
> is willing to go to escalate the conflict.
>
> Ironically, the "games" that Rice was protesting
> against are called "realpolitik", where practical
> matters are weighed, considered and taken into
> account
> based exclusively on statistical, cost-effective
> analysis, and where ethics and law carry little
> weight. It's ironic, because no Middle Eastern
> government comes even close to the US and the
> so-called EU-3 - Germany, France and Britain - in
> exercising realpolitik. After all, the term
> Realpolitik ("practical politics") was coined by a
> German writer describing the attempt to balance the
> powers of European empires in the 19th century.
>
> True, Iran is no empire and is unlikely to
> metamorphose into one. Moreover, no real balance of
> power is possible between Iran and its Western
> nemesis, considering the US military might,
> especially
> if combined with that of its "willing allies", no
> matter how hard Iranian President Mahmud
> Ahmadinejad
> labors to build a fearsome aura around his nation's
> military force. But thanks to other factors -
> precisely President George W Bush's low ratings at
> home and his embattled military in Iraq - Tehran is
> finding itself in a much more comfortable position
> than that of former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein
> prior to the US invasion.
>
> Some are rightfully observing that Washington's
> rhetoric concerning the Iranian nuclear-enrichment
> matter is almost an exact replica of that employed
> in
> the lead-up to the Iraq war. First, there was the
> exaggeration of Iraq's military might, which was
> seen
> as a "threat" to its neighbors - most notably Israel
> -
> and US regional interests. Then came the sanctions,
> formidable and suffocating, meant to "contain" the
> Iraqi regime and "impede" Saddam's alleged
> incessant
> drive for chemical, biological and nuclear weapons.
> Then there was the muscle-flexing and awesome
> military
> deployment. Finally came the showdown: war, forced
> regime change, and occupation.
>
> The Bush administration and the war enthusiasts in
> the
> US Congress - and they are many - sound equally
> gung-ho for another Middle East showdown, with
> Tehran
> its new target. Once again, it's not respect for
> the
> law - since Iran's nuclear enrichment does not
> violate
> its commitments under the nuclear Non-Proliferation
> Treaty. Nor is it democracy, for Iran is much closer
> to having an actual democratic system than many of
> the
> US-favored, yet corrupt and authoritative, allies.
> Nor
> can it be human rights, since the US, as the
> effective
> ruler of Iraq, is the region's top human-rights
> violator. Rather, it's realpolitik.
>
> Iran alone provides 5% of the world's total oil
> exports. At a time when access to and control of
> energy sources translate into political power and
> strategic affluence, and in an age of uncertain oil
> supplies and fractious markets, Iran is an enviable
> prize.
>
> But realpolitik alone can hardly justify the
> seemingly
> irrational readiness to expand the battlefield for
> an
> already over-stretched US military. That's where
> the
> infamous pro-Israel, neo-conservative warmongers
> are
> most effective. The same way they managed to concoct
> a
> pro-war discourse prior to the disastrous war on
> Iraq
> - using the ever-willing mainstream media - they're
> working diligently to create another false doomsday
> scenario required for a military encroachment on
> Iran.
>
>
> If all of this is true, then why is Iran "playing
> games"?
>
> While Iran is no match for an empire, it also
> understands that it has great leverage through its
> significant influence over Iraq's Shi'ite population
> and its leaders. While the invasion of Iraq has
> disaffected most of the country's population -
> regardless of their sectarian affiliation - the
> Shi'ite leadership has yet to demand a US
> withdrawal,
> and for strategic reasons are not yet ready to join
> the blazing insurgency. Using its influence in
> Iraq,
> Iran could significantly alter the equation, a
> decision that would not likely suit long-term US
> interests in occupied Iraq.
>
> But Iran has even more cards to play. When the
> price
> of a barrel of oil recently reached US$75, the
> Group
> of Eight rich nations sent out terrible warnings of
> an
> impending global economic crisis. Imagine if the
> price
> hit the $100 mark? Or even $120 according to some
> estimates? How will already fractious energy
> markets
> treat such a possibility, keeping in mind the
> already
> vulnerable Nigerian oil production, the less
> accommodating - read more independent - Venezuelan
> oil
> supplies? "Unexplained" acts of sabotage against
> Iraq's oil production facilities and export
> pipelines
> will likely add fuel to the fire.
>
> All of these outcomes exclude entirely the
> implausible
> likelihood that the US military is in fact capable
> of
> leading a ground war or maintaining a long-term
> occupation of a country that has not been weakened
> by
> years of debilitating sanctions and is several times
> the size of Iraq.
>
> As optimistic as it may sound, one can, to an
> extent,
> allude to the idea of a "balance of power". Wherever
> such balance can be struck, realpolitik and its
> associated "games" can also be found in profusion.
> While the US wishes to maintain the posture of the
> uncompromising, hard-headed party, ready to execute
> its many military "options" at the stroke of an
> executive order, Iran is calling the bluff by
> confidently trumpeting its various options,
> notwithstanding military ones.
>
> Iran in 2006 is certainly not the Iraq of 1990-91,
> or
> 2003, the year of invasion. Some major changes to
> the
> political map of the Middle East have taken place,
> and
> serious challenges are appearing day after day to
> the
> astonishment of the beleaguered US government and
> its
> president.
>
> Whether it still genuinely believes in military
> options as decisive retorts to its many global
> challenges, the Bush administration must learn to
> deal
> with new political realities, and it must also
> accept
> that playing politics is no longer restricted to
> empires alone.
>
> Veteran Arab-American journalist Ramzy Baroud
> teaches
> mass communication at Australia's Curtin University
> of
> Technology, Malaysia Campus. He is the author of
> Writings on the Second Palestinian Intifada: A
> Chronicle of a People's Struggle (Pluto Press,
> London). He is also the editor-in-chief of
> PalestineChronicle.com.
>
> (Copyright 2006 Ramzy Baroud)
>
>
>
>
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